Happy New Year!!!!
I hope you had pleasant holidays and I wish you a very successful year 2016!!!Six months later is time for the next long term update:) Nothing really new, which is not a surprise because the trend changes are expected in 2016 based on my analysis of cycles and EW patterns. The news is FED is raising rates.... the question is if a new rate hiking cycle has begun and how long will it last. I doubt that we will see more than a few hikes. They can not afford it. All this mountains of debt can not be served. My analysis tells me the market will call the FED's bluff. The trade for the last year and longer was Europe is engaged in QE and lowering yields(which are negative) FED will raise rates and there is no QE -> the consequence yields climbing higher/bonds lower, USD higher JPY and EUR lower, commodities lower, stocks... no QE sideway move for a year. Most of this is already priced in. For example as I wrote early 2015 expect EUR/USD bottom and since March 2015 the pair is in a range. This trade is extremely crowded and despite more QE from ECB and FED raising rates EUR/USD is a few cents higher. It will take time 3-6 Months the bias to change, but I think this will happen despite looking crazy at the moment. The charts(cycles and EW patterns) are telling me at the moment that this trends will change next year - the stocks should make an important top soon and we should see the down part of the 7 year cycle with bottom October/November 2016, EUR/USD should make a major low(DXY high) June/July 2016 and commodities should make major bottom March/April 2016 (or even earlier). I do not know what will cause this major trend changes..... my explanation is plunging stock market will scare the CBs, FED will start again QE and probably stop raising rates(or even lower them) which will eventually cause inflation after years of pumping liquidity in the markets. The big boys know such things in advance and a few months earlier we should see the USD making major top and we should see an accumulation in the commodities sector which is very depressed at the moment making major bottom. - STOCKS The forecast stays the same - bottom of the 7 year cycle late 2016 and another move higher. So far I do not see signs that something different is happening.