May 24, 2025

Weekly preview

Some kind of a pullback has started. It is not a surprise this should be a decline into 10w low. The logical target is the lower trend line of the channel and support(first chart) and MA50(daily) which is around 38% retracement.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - pullback running....


Intermediate term - pullback is running, when it is over we should see continuation higher into July.


Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this should be 10w high on schedule at week 8 and now decline into 10w low.


40w low right on schedule and now higher into 40w high.

May 17, 2025

Weekly preview

Now we have possible completed pattern on the hourly chart on schedule at week 8 for 10w high so it is time for a pullback into 10w low.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - RSI looks like triangle in the middle so maybe zig-zag with running trinagle b-wave in the middle.


Intermediate term - zig-zag testing MA200 and the RSI trend line, next is pullback and higher into July.


Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
Monthly chart - every surge higher ends with broken RSI trend line, one more high with divergence and correction. This time is NOT different this is the high after the broken trend line. The big problem this high will complete double zig-zag from 2009 with double RSI divergence and the correction will be of a higher degree with target MA200 around 3000..... or you can ignore it and continue live in a fantasy world where this time is different.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - look like it is time for a pullback.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - slightly above overbought level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - slightly above overbought level.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - now close to 10w high and next should be decline into 10w low.


40w low right on schedule and now higher into 40w high.

May 10, 2025

Weekly preview

Boring week... nothing new to add. The indices are heading for 10w high wave-a then lower for 10w low wave-b and higher wave-c for 20w/40w high sometimes in July.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - waiting to complete what ever it is... either the usual double zig-zag or wedge.


Intermediate term - zig-zag testing MA200 and the RSI trend line, next is pullback and higher into July.


Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some turned lower after overbought levels.
McClellan Oscillator - lower high.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - overbought level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I am expecting 10w high then lower into 10w low.


40w low right on schedule and now higher into 40w high.

May 3, 2025

Weekly preview

It is taking too long more likely we saw the 40w low. This is the first zig-zag higher next is some correction in May for 10w low then the second zig-zag into July for 40w high.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag or variation wedge to complete the pattern.


Intermediate term - zig-zag testing MA200 and the RSI trend line, next is pullback and higher into July.


Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - buy signals and several indicators are overbought so time for pullback.
McClellan Oscillator - very overbought.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - at 70 level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - oerbought level.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it is getting too long for 20w high. I think this is 10w high... maybe next week.


Most likely 40w low right on schedule and now higher into 40w high.