Mar 28, 2026
Update
The alternate scenario is playing out - impulse lower. If you look at NYSE/DJ/SPXEW show pretty clean impulse and a few more days are needed to complete the pattern. From price perspective the price is between 23%-38% Fibo retracement and between two support levels... the next support level is 200-250 points lower.
If you look the short term cycles we are at day 5 for the 20d cycle so minimum 2 days more likely 3-4 days to be completed. The longer term cycles - week 18 so close to 20w low. Market breadth is showing divergences.
Short said whatch for a low around Thursday next week worst case 200-250 points lower.
Choppy impulse - probable count similar to NYSE/DJ/SPXEW
Techical analysis does not look good - price moved below support and MA200 and next support and 38% fibo is 200 points lower. Overall we know it is a bearish setup because there is more to the downside at least until July.
DAX is close to major trend line from the 2022 low
EUR/USD needs one final push lower for perfect impulse too.
The problem is the 5th wave can extend and with all the buy the dippers still complacent about the downbmove (equity put call data from Friday is still bullish) my feeling is a fast move to about 6k is very possible next week.
ReplyDeleteIt is more likely that the third wave iii of 5 is extended. Market breadth is not reacting lower I doubt this last wave will extend much lower worst case 38% retracement.
DeleteSo 6200 to 6100 would be a good swing trade long?
ReplyDeleteThis is what cycles say.
DeletePossible path to complete the decline - https://invst.ly/1gewnx
ReplyDeleteNDX daily drop to 38% looks likely - https://invst.ly/1gewql
ReplyDeleteNDX hourly possible path to complete impulse - https://invst.ly/1gewre
DAX slightly lower low will complete diagonal pattern and touch the trend line shown on the chart above - https://invst.ly/1gewvk
ReplyDelete