Sep 26, 2026
Update
The indices look different - DJ/NYSE/SPXEW look like impulse lower and now they should retrace higher, NDX looks like b-wave testing the previous top at 20w high, SPX looks more like the NDX but stronger and some count wave 5 running now.
Overall I expect 1-2 weeks to complete the current move higher and then lower into 18m cycle low sometimes next year.
Expecting another week to complete the cycles higher. Alternate it just turns lower earlier...
This are the longer term cycles for the NDX... I see a 40w top early June on schedule and now retest of the top on schedule for 20w high.
Heading into at least 10w high and if we have the same cycle model like NDX it is 20w high.
You can see three tops of different degrees 10w-20w-40w - perfect example why the theory analysis bottoms and not tops. The waves with different lengths synchronize at bottoms and the tops are spread in time.
There is well known phrase describing it - “tops are a process, while bottoms are an event”... we are watching the process lasting several months.
Many Thanks for your research. Can you give us your opinion about us 10y bond and us 30y bond. I think it would be useful given market conditions. Thanks
ReplyDeleteLong term pattern and cycles - https://invst.ly/1k6cg8
DeleteAnd the European bonds, what about DE10Y ?
DeleteYield should be peaking this or next year - https://invst.ly/1k6e5p
DeleteAbout gold, if 2022 was 4y low and you said lower to 2030, in the next monts we should see 4y low and several months up after that low? and after down to 2030
ReplyDeleteLong term - https://invst.ly/1k6cgs
DeleteProbably the top will be tested one more time.
Krasi, thank you much for the weekly update. I was wondering if you were monitoring the 54--year old "Kondratieff Cycle", and how it is eerily aligning with the current state of the equity markets and economy / oil issues? From 1970-1972, stocks rebounded from the 1970 recession bottom, led by high-flying growth stocks ("Nifty Fifty"), until 1973, when the Great Stagflation Crash began, when the S&P plunged 48% through 1974. This drop was triggered by the '73 OPEC oil embargo and surging inflation (sound familiar to current day?). This 54-year cycle is due in early 2027. I am curious on your thoughts on this cycle, and how it might agree with your long-term cycle / markets projections. Thanks much!
ReplyDeleteI do not follow it, but yes what is happening is of the same degree as the great depression or the seventies.
DeleteThe old order society,economy etc. will change completely....
The indices we will see deep reset.... lost decade, no returns for 10+ years if you hold SP500 now.
Tal vez los seguidores de este hilo estuviésemos pensando que el precio de las acciones hace tiempo que ha llegado demasiado lejos y de alguna manera nos estemos retro-alimentando con prejuicios.
ReplyDeletePor otro lado, comparando las gráficas de búsqueda en google del término "inversión en acciones" del periodo anterior a 2002, y a 2008, me da la impresión que todavía queda un año por delante hasta alcanzar un "pico de búsquedas" que coincida con la mayor entrada de minoristas. ¿alguien más sigue estos análisis?
If soxx go to the top again, ndx go up a lot
ReplyDeleteSure the bear flag will make new high ... only in your fantasy
DeleteWill see, I see spy 790
ReplyDeleteIt goewith lost dollar and strong EUR
ReplyDeleteUSD will move higher into 18m high next year - denial will not help you.
DeleteWhat was the previous 18m high in dxy and 4 years ?
DeleteI do not know, that is the long term next is higher into 16y high - https://invst.ly/1k6woi
DeleteSharp move higher into 2027 in perfect sync with stocks lower.
Retracement and higher into 2030-2031 then comes the death of the USD.
16 September could have been 40d low long instead of 80d short ?
ReplyDeleteI doubt it.
DeleteAs long as spy above 7575 the target is 8000
ReplyDeleteTaking SP Futures, do you think that if we move above 7840 we could inevitably go to 8100 ?
ReplyDeleteThis move up should be shorter than the previous one which means below 8000
DeleteDAX retracement up to 25800-26000 before continuation lower?
ReplyDeleteYes, I think so to complete 10w high.
Deleteb-wave triangle, targets for the c-wave slightly above 7800 or 7900 - https://invst.ly/1k79p5
ReplyDeleteThe small triangle is dead, if the decline stops now it is 61% retracement and c-wave slightly below 7900 or if it continues to the red trend line a bigger triangle is possible - https://invst.ly/1k7cnj
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