Sep 12, 2026
Update
We have corrective pattern for the 5w high so we will see at least one more leg lower when the pattern is completed.
Long term look at cycles since the last important low and high:
- lows(red) does not realy adher to the theory just one 18m cycle. What we have is 2.5 years cycle.
- highs(blue) running almost exactly 18 months like thetheory says... usualy they are shorter.
If this continues we should see decline for one year to MA200 like all the previous declines in the 6000 area +-200 points then higher for 6 months.
2020-2025 4.5y nominal hurst cycle with 2 cycles of 2.5 years ?
ReplyDeleteYes, I think so.
DeleteFoundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lic-00cjI40
ReplyDeleteConclusions after minute 35 if you do not want to watch the whole video.
Cycle analysis of margin debt/GDP ratio, which is leading indicator for market tops.
Two dominant cycles 43 and 81 months(3.5 and 7 years), which combined show the following:
- high Jun-Nov 2026
- low Apr-Sep 2027
- high H2 2028
Interesting this is exactly the same as shown on the cycle chart in this post.
Alternate cycle inversion and major top in the next 6 months.
Very interesting video, Krasi. Great data/cycle analysis/diagrams for digestion. From my perspective after viewing Lars' whole video, the 2016 cycle low to 2022 cycle high (on 43-month, 81-month chart at 30:00 or so in video) with inversion appeared pretty much exactly the same curve relation as the current cycle from the 2023 low to current/today (also displaying inverted curves). For me, this would project a "high" in the cycles and markets for approximately early 2029. Thanks for the link to the video!
Delete