tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post1968700175636961160..comments2024-03-29T05:07:18.851+01:00Comments on practical technical analysis: Weekly previewKrasihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-766598478789040652016-08-11T23:52:06.276+02:002016-08-11T23:52:06.276+02:00Krasi, Thank you so much for taking the time to ex...Krasi, Thank you so much for taking the time to explain this to me. This is a great explanation, and I'm very grateful :) This is all very logical and I only wish I'd asked you earlier!<br />Thank youAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-12581106508160573112016-08-11T09:12:20.634+02:002016-08-11T09:12:20.634+02:00Confirmation is something which tells you with ver...Confirmation is something which tells you with very high probability we have reversal.<br />It could be an impulse in the opposite direction or a move below the last minor low or something else.<br />In the current situation the move higher stalled again for three days and the daily charts look bad with divergences MACD/Histogram/RSI... but no confirmation. No big red day, the move lower is still only three waves. The first sign will be if we see a lower low today this will finish 5 waves from the top than we need lower high and 100% confirmation is move below the last minor low(early August). If we see a move higher today than we have only corrective move lower and no confirmation - probably wave ii of 5 and iii higher will follow. <br />All this is digging deeper in short term charts. The price is well above MA50 and the 40 day cycle is at day 31 bullish right translated. So the first leg lower should be shorter in time and deep retracement is expected. Do not hold you breath to time the top there will be enough opportunities... patience.<br />The money are made when you follow the trend and not when you nail the top... sounds simple, but I have still problems with patience too:)))<br /><br />About reversals - usually this sequence of events(impulse in the opposite direction/lower high/break below the last low) repeats by every reversal. A trend is higher highs and higher lows and if you see lower high and lower low what tells you this? - the trend has reversed.<br />There is three entry points:<br />1. the top - you need at least something to justify an entry... finished pattern/impulse, divergences, support/resistance hit etc.<br />2. lower high - corrective move and failed attempt to make higher high<br />3. break below the last low<br />Different traders trade differently - "brave" traders will try to time the top 1, "smart" traders will split the position with entry points 1+2+3 or 2+3 or 1+2 and those who do not like the risk will choose point 3.<br />The theory is again very simple and applying it in practice very difficult:)Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-66733941278362570092016-08-11T03:20:05.617+02:002016-08-11T03:20:05.617+02:00Interesting and VERY valuable advice, I always won...Interesting and VERY valuable advice, I always wondered what you meant by wait for a lower high (how do you know it's not going to make a higher high?) or higher high with divergence. Now I get it...makes sense, watch for the RSI divergence. Patience is the toughest part of this game, but you are right it pays off :) Thank you for all the advice Krasi, much appreciated! By confirmation do you mean trend line break or MA50 break/retest and failure to break above? After Brexit/Rebound, I just don't know what confirmation means :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-15505627540021244352016-08-10T21:56:11.480+02:002016-08-10T21:56:11.480+02:00The daily chart does not look good anymore the ind...The daily chart does not look good anymore the indicators with divergences and three days sideway move... I think something lower is running already.Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-64565488789823301092016-08-10T21:33:35.019+02:002016-08-10T21:33:35.019+02:00Thanks Krasi. Appreciate your insight.
- Kali Thanks Krasi. Appreciate your insight. <br /><br />- Kali Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-44057343027225732342016-08-10T19:22:08.153+02:002016-08-10T19:22:08.153+02:00welcome back Krasi...!
Thanks for the update! For ...welcome back Krasi...!<br />Thanks for the update! For the RUT, any target for higher high for the v of 5?<br /><br />Jules Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-7306284163242671272016-08-10T11:43:39.590+02:002016-08-10T11:43:39.590+02:00As you can see patience is important:) Now looks b...As you can see patience is important:) Now looks better for a short entry compared to 4 weeks ago... at least there is some pattern to trade now.<br />Looking at Russell2000 I think there is one final high for v of 5(currently in iv of 5) to finish an impulse from the June low.<br />The trigger is when you see a higher high with RSI divergence on the hourly chart.<br /><br />CAREFUL this will be again an entry without confirmation. There will be another opportunities for an entry too. I do not expect sharp reversal, I think this will come later with the second part of the correction. The price is well above MA50 on the daily chart and a big sell off occurs after the price moves below it. The first move will be to test MA50. <br />Usually the right decision is to split the position into several trades when you suspect reversal, but there is no confirmation to avoid big loss. <br /> Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-87002924007149836432016-08-10T04:46:31.401+02:002016-08-10T04:46:31.401+02:00Thank you! I'm trying to figure out a good ent...Thank you! I'm trying to figure out a good entry point on the short side, but this market is relentless! Please let me know if you find one...<br />Best Regards,<br />MattAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-67736288997495264762016-08-07T21:52:18.319+02:002016-08-07T21:52:18.319+02:00It looks the same like SP500 to me - impulse from ...It looks the same like SP500 to me - impulse from the June low.Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-20825181022783295852016-08-07T21:27:02.210+02:002016-08-07T21:27:02.210+02:00Welcome back! Thanks Krasi. Any view on the Russel...Welcome back! Thanks Krasi. Any view on the Russell 2000?<br />MattAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com