tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post5105924081749222486..comments2024-03-29T05:07:18.851+01:00Comments on practical technical analysis: Weekly previewKrasihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-25083442089360884402017-02-20T07:50:43.399+01:002017-02-20T07:50:43.399+01:00The idea is to combine several tools, but to keep ...The idea is to combine several tools, but to keep it simple - only basic concepts. This gives much better results than choosing one tool and digging very deep trying to become an expert.<br />Yes, the forecasts are not perfect, but almost always on the right side so no heavy loses. This is good enough, because as a trader you get paid when you are on the right side and not for knowing where the index will be in one year.<br />Market breadth is very important. If you know how to read it's message you will know where the market is heading.Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-24730518165859987122017-02-20T01:22:12.022+01:002017-02-20T01:22:12.022+01:00I've been following your blog for a couple mon...I've been following your blog for a couple months. It is well presented and uncluttered. I also checked your forecasts to actual market moves in the past and you have done an admirable job in a difficult field. (I realize perfect forecasting impossible). Interesting to note your attention to market breadth. larryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12778203856195883397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-78481818247345346822017-02-14T08:50:52.386+01:002017-02-14T08:50:52.386+01:00Thanks!
Important are the Fibonacci levels. I thin...Thanks!<br />Important are the Fibonacci levels. I think there will be one more rally higher later this year. Now if you look at the second chart everything aligns perfect - one more wave to finish the EW pattern, Fibonacci level 2.236, the purple trend line overshot final mania just to hit the green trend line. It looks like 1500 will be an important level for RUT.Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-29889375812758289902017-02-14T04:30:18.303+01:002017-02-14T04:30:18.303+01:00Hi Krasi, I've have obsessed with Russell 2000...Hi Krasi, I've have obsessed with Russell 2000, and just wanted to share a couple charts with long term trend lines and this retracement I came up with when trying to make sense of the violent rally last few months :) am fascinated by current levels to see what happens. Not sure if this 200% retracement has any significance? probably nothing... and you're probably already on top of all these long term trendlines anyway, but wanted to share :) <br />Weekly 10 yr: https://postimg.org/image/8o131rwe1/<br />Monthly 15 yr: https://postimg.org/image/s3k327tcr/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-32784123253394430602017-02-11T10:09:28.855+01:002017-02-11T10:09:28.855+01:00I do not think that there is such tight correlatio...I do not think that there is such tight correlation on daily or weekly basis between PM and stocks. It looks like the USD made an impulse higher so I expect more to the upside and respectively lower for PM.<br /><br />Yes, I have read the same small cap turn first, but I would not say the deviation is so big. I would rather look at different US indexes for confirmation if I am tracking the right pattern.<br />I have posted such comparison a few weeks ago saying that there is more to the upside because RUT and XLF have not finished their patterns and we see now DJ and SP500 higher.<br /><br />Yes, small cap and nasdaq are more volatile, the moves are bigger, and the profits are bigger.<br />I am trading only leveraged ETFs TNA/TZA and semiconductor SOXS/SOXL profits are much bigger, but the loses too. They are only for traders with experience which know what they are doing and with very good timing.<br /> <br />Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-54037436029871281922017-02-11T04:07:45.920+01:002017-02-11T04:07:45.920+01:00Less likely, this does not fit for other indexes.Less likely, this does not fit for other indexes.Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-78303938473457134362017-02-11T01:35:47.511+01:002017-02-11T01:35:47.511+01:00Krasi,
Could we have completed the ending diagona...Krasi,<br /><br />Could we have completed the ending diagonal with peaks on Jan 6, Jan 26, feb 10th ? The pattern would fit perfectly esp with all the divergence. <br /><br />Thanks,<br /><br />Kali Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-49781919099647362082017-02-10T22:43:26.012+01:002017-02-10T22:43:26.012+01:00Has PM already been going down or still testing it...Has PM already been going down or still testing its impulsive wave high? It seems PM goes along with stock index in the sense that stock market up, PM down... In this sense, given market may grind another week, PM should be grind down? But clearly PM is still hanging on its high level and may grind another small up wave. Thanks.<br /><br />Another question is IWM, SPY and DIA, what's their relation during top and down. I recall some books said when market reaches its extreme, IWM will go down first, while DIA may gradually reach its high point. Once DIA begins down trend, IWM will accelerate its existing down trend. So if short the market, short the small sector seems better than large sector? And another ways is short aggressive sector like QQQ/Biotech first? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-59438344888220704352017-02-10T20:52:13.691+01:002017-02-10T20:52:13.691+01:00Vixx rising today... hmmm.
It's time to party...Vixx rising today... hmmm.<br /><br />It's time to party!!<br /><br />-kaliAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-62043183378999967902017-02-10T18:14:10.215+01:002017-02-10T18:14:10.215+01:00A friend of mine asks me the same for a long time ...A friend of mine asks me the same for a long time because he is bearish for too long... my answer is always the same - until the pattern is finished:)<br />I told you, you have to be patient. Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-52728206812431531782017-02-10T18:04:17.065+01:002017-02-10T18:04:17.065+01:00I suppose you mean long VIX instead of shorting th...I suppose you mean long VIX instead of shorting the indexes. VIX is a difficult game, with not leveraged tools maybe it can work building a position. With leveraged tools like TVIX/UVXY you need extremely good timing. I do not find them very attractive because you are trading against the odds - most of the time 90%-95% they are moving lower. When a bear market begins probably they will be interesting.<br /><br />Nevertheless you should trade them only if you have a lot of experience and you know what you are doing. Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-75072972685750404182017-02-10T17:43:24.522+01:002017-02-10T17:43:24.522+01:00Krasi,
How long can the bulls contract the vixx b...Krasi,<br /><br />How long can the bulls contract the vixx before it explodes to revisit 20 resistance? :)<br /><br />- kaliAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-19692717758252151442017-02-10T16:47:08.747+01:002017-02-10T16:47:08.747+01:00In general, it's better to short VIX or index ...In general, it's better to short VIX or index itself? VIX seems to be attractive? But it's from such high and only correction, VIX may need time to blow up?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-30829716934740919042017-02-10T14:34:43.183+01:002017-02-10T14:34:43.183+01:00Yes, it means the MACD slope from down is flatteni...Yes, it means the MACD slope from down is flattening and something in the opposite direction is expected.<br />Will it be just a corrective move or reversal? - you can not say just because MACD is flat and the histogram shows divergence. You need more information - the pattern, where are the MAs etc.<br />With MACD divergence the probability for a reversal is higher, but I have seen enough occasions of a reversal without MACD divergence. There is no rule just probabilities.<br />Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-46969223841423857812017-02-10T13:43:22.227+01:002017-02-10T13:43:22.227+01:00Another situation is, MACD below zero and its slop...Another situation is, MACD below zero and its slop is down, however, histogram shows bullish signal/even bullish divergence (neighboring trough smaller and smaller). So this means a correction (price up)? is it trend reversal or wait to see MACD itself shows divergence (change slope to up) to change the trend? Thank you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-49646632885378696282017-02-10T13:26:04.723+01:002017-02-10T13:26:04.723+01:00very nice comparison, thank you~ very nice comparison, thank you~ Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-59231615677248194322017-02-10T11:54:28.124+01:002017-02-10T11:54:28.124+01:00Great thank you!Great thank you!John Doehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17450188696913407859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-84282749504314487642017-02-10T10:01:24.987+01:002017-02-10T10:01:24.987+01:00At the moment I think the indexes will grind highe...At the moment I think the indexes will grind higher one more week.<br /><br />The relation between MACD and histogram is like the relation velocity and acceleration.<br />MACD shows you the velocity and direction of the move, the histogram if the price is accelerating in the direction of the move or slowing down.<br /><br />Different signals between MACD and histogram - MACD shows you the direction up/down(long term), histogram in the opposite direction says the move is slowing down/accelerating (short term). It depends on at what stage this signals are appearing - it could be just a pause after a strong run or the beginning of a reversal.<br /><br />MACD above zero -> trend up -> the histogram turning up after a trough is bullish - in most cases pullback/correction is over.<br />Histogram bullish, but MACD signal line going down? - it should not happen. The histogram is the difference between MACD and the signal line. Signal line going dow means the histogram turned lower which is not bullish.Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-46253609970338077912017-02-10T07:56:14.083+01:002017-02-10T07:56:14.083+01:00It is ok to start building short position. Not ful...It is ok to start building short position. Not full size right away, but something like 1/3.<br />You have to be aware that there is no sell signal so far and there is a risk for a loss.<br />Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-38078878602028020972017-02-10T04:26:01.846+01:002017-02-10T04:26:01.846+01:00This should be iii. Tops/bottoms are very difficul...This should be iii. Tops/bottoms are very difficult to nail. You start digging deeper into shorter time frames to count waves of smaller degree trying to find the top and most of the time the top/bottom surprises you.<br />What I want to say is - for trading you never wait until the "final small wave". You start preparing earlier... taking profits and even starting to build position in the opposite direction.<br /> Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-44982690644506517642017-02-09T22:49:10.985+01:002017-02-09T22:49:10.985+01:00is it a good time to short the market now ? is it a good time to short the market now ? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-5521812692873653762017-02-09T21:25:07.632+01:002017-02-09T21:25:07.632+01:00Hi Krasi, are we in wave i or iii of your short te...Hi Krasi, are we in wave i or iii of your short term chart?John Doehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17450188696913407859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-73701820149512346362017-02-09T21:00:43.613+01:002017-02-09T21:00:43.613+01:00It seems today the impulse wave from Jan reaches i...It seems today the impulse wave from Jan reaches its extreme? Another questions is what's the relation between the MACD signals and MACD histogram? Sometimes, histogram shows bullish signal but MACD itself seems bearish, or vice versa. So which determines the long period and which tells short term view? I very appreciate your tutorial and have such questions after read both MACD and MACD histogram sections. And you said, when MACD below zero, the big trend is up, at this time, MACD histogram bullish means immediately taking positions? How about MACD histogram shows bullish but MACD shows bearish like, signal line go down to cross?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-45554541585343076742017-02-09T17:56:08.604+01:002017-02-09T17:56:08.604+01:00Looks like we are getting that final record high j...Looks like we are getting that final record high just in time. <br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />KaliAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-77067698443581520202017-02-09T08:07:26.969+01:002017-02-09T08:07:26.969+01:00Hi Kali,
I hope so... two months drought:) we need...Hi Kali,<br />I hope so... two months drought:) we need some volatility to make some money:)Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.com