tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post6365038183552884444..comments2024-03-28T19:43:47.388+01:00Comments on practical technical analysis: Weekly previewKrasihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-24332913734170361922016-11-22T08:01:51.113+01:002016-11-22T08:01:51.113+01:00In the last "Long term update" I have me...In the last "Long term update" I have mentioned that despite the strong rally something does not feel right. Even gold bugs are noticing now that something is "off course" - http://www.safehaven.com/article/43087/golds-2016-bull-market-moving-off-course<br />Now I think I know what it is "off course" - major secular bull market top in 2011.<br />From trading perspective it does not matter - it will move higher. Later you will make your conclusion - if after 4 years it is still below the previous highs something is really "off course" .Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-36906937595943627262016-11-21T21:30:40.781+01:002016-11-21T21:30:40.781+01:00So no more faith in secular trends eh? I guess we&...So no more faith in secular trends eh? I guess we'll find out soon enough because if we get a relatively small dollar retracement and shiny stuff manages only to make a right shoulder from here...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-57491999870232659522016-11-21T08:02:58.270+01:002016-11-21T08:02:58.270+01:00I think this is wave A for the DAX, than lower wav...I think this is wave A for the DAX, than lower wave B to around 9200 +-100 points and than wave C higher to around 11700(the same size like the current move higher from February).<br /><br />Precious metals made secular top in 2011 and since than they are in secular bear market.<br />In Dec.2015 they made important bottom and should move higher for 3-4 years in cyclical bull market.<br /><br />I thought the USD is making a triangle and final rally will follow in 2017, which meant gold very deep retracement and silver even lower low possible(like in 2001). After the elections a triangle for the USD has very low probability accordingly lower lows for the PM.<br /><br />At the moment I expect higher low in 2017(cyclical bull is running with low in Dec.2015)<br />When the correction is over the next leg higher until late 2018/early 2019. I expect lower highs because PM/commodities are in secular bear market. I do not expect PM to blow off above the previous highs.Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-4545196566543055312016-11-20T19:28:38.300+01:002016-11-20T19:28:38.300+01:00Retracement to what level in your opinion? I dont ...Retracement to what level in your opinion? I dont think the low for this DAX correction, unlike the s&p, is in. <br />Also, you are expecting higher low for gold and lower low for silver somewhere in the middle of 2017 right? What's your take on silver? It's interesting because silver 'should' outperform gold in the coming years. It also usually lags gold a bit so silver meltup 2018-2020? Can it blow off the 2011 top in your opinion?<br />Thank you for your work and greetings from Poland.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-58349788870073159022016-11-20T09:43:10.576+01:002016-11-20T09:43:10.576+01:00Here is the chart from the last "Long term up...Here is the chart from the last "Long term update" - https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-om3Afw9xqr4/V4IciQxVLdI/AAAAAAAAGi4/iHzmccV1Z2k743zJ4reoc5_nODnDt0u_gCLcB/s1600/lt2-1.png<br /><br />40%-60% lower until 2022Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-80786390789870966662016-11-19T20:05:49.150+01:002016-11-19T20:05:49.150+01:00Hi Krasi, can you provide longer term graphs? E.g....Hi Krasi, can you provide longer term graphs? E.g. Post top of wave 5 on around Oct 2018. <br /><br />It would be interesting to see your perspective.<br /><br />As always, thanks!Haejinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01573036387234848073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-58910525651114034572016-11-19T18:34:33.391+01:002016-11-19T18:34:33.391+01:00Yes, the DAX is telling the same story. I have for...Yes, the DAX is telling the same story. I have forgotten to draw the next moves on the chart above - deep and steep retracement 3-4 months followed by strong rally. Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-35978246606959809772016-11-19T12:44:32.993+01:002016-11-19T12:44:32.993+01:00ECB taper > $ and dax crashing through winter &...ECB taper > $ and dax crashing through winter > european stocks big come back through the rest of 2017Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com