tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post6883350447177744025..comments2024-03-28T05:23:16.954+01:00Comments on practical technical analysis: UpdateKrasihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-58105460776448285972017-07-15T17:13:32.055+02:002017-07-15T17:13:32.055+02:00Yes, a flat is another possibility I have prepared...Yes, a flat is another possibility I have prepared charts Nasdaq/Sox to show this.<br />A bigger correction is coming wave 4 from Feb.2016 - either running already with a flat for the Nasdaq or making one more high with SP500 which is in the final waves from 3 now.<br />Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-9764210194843413372017-07-15T16:00:17.923+02:002017-07-15T16:00:17.923+02:00Hi Krasi,
Interesting you say that. Would it not...Hi Krasi,<br /><br />Interesting you say that. Would it not look better if we pullback along with SPY then make the push higher to all time high? That would make for a flat correction or expanded flat for the nasdaq. At which point, we would resume the move down along with spy for leg C?<br /><br />I see your point of abc move behind us, but I am trying to figure this in the picture with other indices. Also don't you think we should retrace to at least 23.8% of fib lebel?<br /><br />Thanks again for your valuable insight.<br /><br />- Kali<br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-36066932053715158002017-07-15T10:54:43.384+02:002017-07-15T10:54:43.384+02:00It looks better as an impulse see SOX too. I think...It looks better as an impulse see SOX too. I think there should be more to the upside.<br />If I look at technology sector and Europe continuation of the rally in August will look better. Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-30175328791110492702017-07-15T08:11:57.541+02:002017-07-15T08:11:57.541+02:00I will explain it one more time and for the last t...I will explain it one more time and for the last time:<br />"There is two directions drawn on the chart, you will be always right and look smart how stupid is that" - this is sooo amateurish interpretation of the chart:)<br />I do not need to show how smart I am. I do not need to show perfect track record. I do not need bullshitting the readers because I do not sell subscriptions.<br />The most paid services are not better. The difference is some of them will send you buy/sell signals and make the thinking for you.<br />I do not this, I am just presenting the probabilities the way I see them and traders/readers should decide for themselves to act or not.<br /><br />Here is my interpretation of the chart - this is a short term move/trade and because it is a short term the risk is higher the market has two direction.<br />I want to now - how high is the risk(loses), how high is the risk to be wrong(the odds), when I am wrong(pattern level etc), and if I am wrong what is going on(the new pattern).<br />This way I can have a decent trading plan and decide to trade or not. All this risk assessment is the second red scenario on the chart.<br />This is the way I think and it will not change like it or not.<br />I explained this in a comment and in second comment in response to H2535 I have said up in the moment when SP500 dropped 10-15 points.<br />On the hourly chart often there is second scenario, on the daily and weekly not so often and when I show second scenario usually it is about the degree of the move size etc <br />and seldom about the direction.<br /><br />What is the alternative - it will go higher.... ooo it is moving lower, OMG should I run... what is going, I do not know eventually it will go higher.<br />This is an amateur approach - now the amateur is a long term investor holding losing position:) I have seen this so many times... and I have done it thousand times:) I do not want to do it any more.<br /><br />Intermediate term - I called a top in March which was right, I was expecting another low in April/Mai for the 18 month cycle low... all we saw were higher lows.<br />I was wrong, move on to the next setup/trade - this is trading look in the future you can not change the past. I was not even short I have covered my shorts in April.<br />Since then I was expecting higher high with alternate if it breaks below a certain level. <br /><br />You have to get rid of this concepts right wrong. No one knows the future all you have is setup with probability. If the probability risk/reward justify a trade do it. If it does not play out move to the next setup.<br />Do not worry if you are persistent enough you will learn to think as a trader weighting probabilities and not in terms like right and wrong.<br /><br />P.S. So I was wrong in Mai, but right in Feb.2016 when most of the traders were shitting their pants. Where were you then to explain me how wrong I am? One of the many reasons for a free blog is - no need to justify to customers.... and now I have to justify my analysis on a free blog?!?!? It is not allowed to be wrong once?!?!? I was wrong that's it move on. When you do not like my analysis do not read them so simple.<br /><br />If you have a problem with loosing position it is better to ask for an idea/opinion and second you have to take responsibility and not blaming some one else<br />If think you are so smart and made a better analysis/trade than me.... congratulation, but come back to Earth - you are an amateur. Where do I know - your behavior. I have seen this <br />so many times, I have done this so many times. I understand you, I have been trough this too - believe me it is waste of time. Invest your time and energy in something more productive and do not waste yours and my time..... Which is more productive spending a few hours working on the next long term update looking for the next opportunity or discussing who was right or wrong? This is the past, it is over, it is done, it does not matter any more.<br />If you will feel better - here it is I WAS WRONG:)Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-51476882670689299452017-07-15T01:14:44.337+02:002017-07-15T01:14:44.337+02:00wait no, it was at 2415 at that time...I'll be...wait no, it was at 2415 at that time...I'll be that's where you shorted it. John Doehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17450188696913407859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-21315809575580638282017-07-15T01:10:43.759+02:002017-07-15T01:10:43.759+02:00Are you kidding me?? Krasi even had the decency to...Are you kidding me?? Krasi even had the decency to respond the following to your dumb comment on July 11th when SPX was in the low 2420s (so just guessing you don't comprehend risk/reward very well?)<br />Krasi<br />Jul 11, 2017, 4:39:00 PM<br />First read and think, then comment!<br />I repeat it for weeks that this should be wave 4 with one more higher high. Clear defined support zone when this is wrong.<br />Learn to think like a trader weighting probabilities then comment.<br />I will translate it for you - it will move higher green, but if it breaks below the support zone I am wrong and it is the red.<br />That is the way I analyze and trade. If you look for some one to think and make decisions for you, this is the wrong place.John Doehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17450188696913407859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-74195631727322984802017-07-14T23:57:54.686+02:002017-07-14T23:57:54.686+02:00HI Krasi,
Looks like Nasdaq completed its retrace...HI Krasi,<br /><br />Looks like Nasdaq completed its retracement today. 3 distinct waves up with exact QQQ target of recent highs (which you predicted!). Excellent trading opportunity as we would know quickly whether we are wrong or not in terms of our short position... Do you believe we should resume our decline? Now, what do you think as the target for the downside?<br /><br />Thanks again,<br /><br />Kali<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-57980575649780581842017-07-14T22:25:03.407+02:002017-07-14T22:25:03.407+02:00I, on the other hand would like to thank Krasi as ...I, on the other hand would like to thank Krasi as the more probable move up scenario played up well and I made some profit shorting uvxy with put options (1:5 rr), I also use other means to weight more probable outcome. I think Krasi could be right we are getting closer to bigger correction, look at the rsi/mcad divergences on spx daily and weekly, also mcad on VIX daily has crossed neutral line (see historical data to see what it might mean), very tight VIX BB, VVIX (volatility of VIX) is making higher highs, I'm waiting for bearish candle XIV<br /><br />Regards,<br />Mily Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-17457157003660421072017-07-14T21:37:05.124+02:002017-07-14T21:37:05.124+02:00I hate to say, but it's very stupid to judge w...I hate to say, but it's very stupid to judge whether something s useful or who's right who's wrong like young kids debate who is the best superman:) Earn your OWN money by whatever way you want. Publish your ideas in advance if you like. That's it. Thank you very much for Krasi's great analysis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-11597153046149910952017-07-14T21:23:48.816+02:002017-07-14T21:23:48.816+02:00of course, there's always a path up and a path...of course, there's always a path up and a path down, so Krasi will always be right....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-43532177354822280792017-07-14T20:01:39.838+02:002017-07-14T20:01:39.838+02:00That is probably because you are illeterate... thi...That is probably because you are illeterate... this latest post clearly said expecting a new high, the most likely outcomeJohn Doehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17450188696913407859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-4009136505692541972017-07-14T19:04:05.933+02:002017-07-14T19:04:05.933+02:00So, all the markets are at new highs today. Since ...So, all the markets are at new highs today. Since you've been expecting a correction for many months now, we can safely say you were dead wrong. No offense but I really fail to see the value in your analysis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-28551622279398895602017-07-13T05:22:21.710+02:002017-07-13T05:22:21.710+02:00Gold should move higher for a few weeksGold should move higher for a few weeksKrasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-51736761878731061372017-07-12T21:37:12.697+02:002017-07-12T21:37:12.697+02:00How about gold? It looks like some backtest, finis...How about gold? It looks like some backtest, finished or not? Thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-89297078464976286112017-07-12T00:05:08.033+02:002017-07-12T00:05:08.033+02:00I know it doesnt look bad now I was talking about ...I know it doesnt look bad now I was talking about longer term;]<br />I'm actually watching TIP very closely as proxy for gold. Trend line going though march, may and half june lows is the perfect place to backtest form below and fail. If we break that then gold is out of here.<br />Bottom line is if USDJPY topped for now then the high for stocks wave 3 should be in. If we are to get summer correction and then final wave up then Yen should further weaken and it matches well with your autumn miners low scenario.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-3943294502134818592017-07-11T21:48:31.325+02:002017-07-11T21:48:31.325+02:00Thank you. To me GDX looks like some triangle with...Thank you. To me GDX looks like some triangle with potential to break out downwards. And GDXJ looks like head and shoulder...But hard to say how it goes since several patterns are possible. And GOLD could be double top or anther wave up and down to get triple top? silver looks like more bearish, anywayAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-17956388223696827312017-07-11T21:23:28.334+02:002017-07-11T21:23:28.334+02:00Gold silver GDX GDXJ with different patterns. That...Gold silver GDX GDXJ with different patterns. That is why I commented in the previous post that I can not see a setup with high probability.<br />I think the "summer rally" is not over. There should be more to the upside something like a few weeks not a few days.... and if the cycle model works this "rally" should fail.Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-83966291166409084522017-07-11T20:37:59.100+02:002017-07-11T20:37:59.100+02:00So which scenario is more likely? Gold miner moves...So which scenario is more likely? Gold miner moves higher in the next few days to test GOLD 1260 or corrective move and continue move lower. What confused me is whether the summer rally has finished or still in motion? Thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-3619757567220388582017-07-11T18:50:52.527+02:002017-07-11T18:50:52.527+02:00Yes, I think we should see a move higher. By the w...Yes, I think we should see a move higher. By the way the down sloping trend line was hit and we saw a reaction lower, but I think the break out should be higher.<br />Tech stocks and European markets with high probability corrective move lower so they hint move higher too.Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-18241505691187916972017-07-11T18:46:39.897+02:002017-07-11T18:46:39.897+02:00It does not look so bad at the moment, USDJPY not ...It does not look so bad at the moment, USDJPY not strong enough to the upside it looks more like a-b-c.... but if cycles are right a rally in summer should fail and we should see one more lower low. Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-71817595031372173372017-07-11T18:38:11.933+02:002017-07-11T18:38:11.933+02:00Thanks Krasi for update,if breakup above 2425 Gree...Thanks Krasi for update,if breakup above 2425 Green scenario is highly probableH2535https://www.blogger.com/profile/16210577408786171899noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-8725909880733232242017-07-11T17:07:13.554+02:002017-07-11T17:07:13.554+02:00After turn we have most propably witnessed yesterd...After turn we have most propably witnessed yesterday in miners I am not so optimistic anymore :( I thought we would go even lower because USDJPY is not high enough for a serious turn (would have preferred it above 119). Now I actually believe we might backtest on TIP and gold and fail at 1260...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-34744725730355456782017-07-11T16:39:40.108+02:002017-07-11T16:39:40.108+02:00First read and think, then comment!
I repeat it fo...First read and think, then comment!<br />I repeat it for weeks that this should be wave 4 with one more higher high. Clear defined support zone when this is wrong.<br />Learn to think like a trader weighting probabilities then comment.<br />I will translate it for you - it will move higher green, but if it breaks below the support zone I am wrong and it is the red.<br />That is the way I analyze and trade. If you look for some one to think and make decisions for you, this is the wrong place. Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-29525367797553707462017-07-11T16:00:38.024+02:002017-07-11T16:00:38.024+02:00great, so again it might go up or it might go down...great, so again it might go up or it might go down. amazing analysis, where do I sign up ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-42791092948986344172017-07-10T08:15:30.212+02:002017-07-10T08:15:30.212+02:00Great to hear it:)
Yes, I am watching miners very ...Great to hear it:)<br />Yes, I am watching miners very closely.... if the cycle model continue to work we have a few more months to finish this corrective move and a rally for around 18 months... until stocks find a bottom sometime in 2019.Krasihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.com