tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-43637079447489528232024-03-18T18:59:19.518+01:00practical technical analysisТrading diary / Position trading, Swing trading, Daily trading / Technical analysis Дневник / Практическо приложение на технически анализ / Споделяне на идеиKrasihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.comBlogger1202125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-88691596502973742172024-03-16T06:39:00.000+01:002024-03-16T06:39:49.019+01:00Weekly previewNothing new the market looks tired, since the start of March every pop is met with quick sell off - it looks like distribution. The pattern is very choppy and short term looks like completed wave c/y/Y alternate triangle top around FOMC.</br>
Week 33 high to high in the 32-36 range for 40w high, very weak market breadth, divergences - classical top.</br>
The 40w cycles are back to their average length so in this case next is decline into 40w cycle low first half of June and higher for 40w cycle high around the elections in November.
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - sell signal, extended cycles 50+ days.<br/>
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower - waiting for confirmation next week.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - very complex and choppy pattern completed c/y/Y or triangle.</br>
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Intermediate term - two double zig-zags for w-x-y at two Fibo targets. Close below the trend line and MA10, RSI breaking lower - very high probability that we have turn lower.
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Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.</br>
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - very weak, divergencies, turned lower.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - below zero.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - buy signal, divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - above 70, divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - divergence and turned lower.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - multiple divergences and turned lower.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - multiple higher lows.<br/>
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - very likely 20d high to complete 5w/10w high, alternate third 20d cycle high around FOMC.<br/>
The highs look like three extended 10w cycles for 40w cycle high.
The lows - no clear 20w low, vusualy probably three extended 10w cycles like the highs. Trying to stick to the theory 20w low in February at week 16 or another extended cycle.
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Week 20 for the 40w cycle. Probably 40w cycle consisting of three extended 10w cycles, but if I have to pinpoint 20w low it should be at week 16. <br/>
Week 33 high-to-high, at the top of at least 40w cycle... and very likely 18m cycle high too. <br/>
Average length for the 40w cycle is 32-36 weeks the last 40w low was 33 weeks long and now the high is 33 weeks long maybe the market is back to normal rhythm after shorter cycles from mid-2022 to mid-2023. In this case next important low is in June and next important high in November.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif_T3lcAQ9hzddhtkt9R_eZ9z3Gtx_uu594P0GkV-jQ0tNoSyXqn4gFrmljPW9_ldiQyvTzyZ7RIgc6Lkdh6TAzThs1ADlUmhdPg4eN39gD-jxuC1jXlCA1btvMG-Ha9xfzuTlf9uS3PdogJqUCG2X2mlsD0883XOIa4j3D7Kznx48Nyal3XGWxOfKEgIl/s1802/6.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif_T3lcAQ9hzddhtkt9R_eZ9z3Gtx_uu594P0GkV-jQ0tNoSyXqn4gFrmljPW9_ldiQyvTzyZ7RIgc6Lkdh6TAzThs1ADlUmhdPg4eN39gD-jxuC1jXlCA1btvMG-Ha9xfzuTlf9uS3PdogJqUCG2X2mlsD0883XOIa4j3D7Kznx48Nyal3XGWxOfKEgIl/s820/6.PNG"/></a></div>Krasihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-87268231331107464972024-03-09T05:46:00.005+01:002024-03-09T06:41:09.547+01:00Weekly preview<strike>The market</strike> NVDA moved higher gapping every day... and trapped many on Friday with sharp reversal.</br>
We have one more 20d cycle high, 40w high at week 32, indicators and market breadth with multiple divergences. The market is at important top and next is decline into May/June for 40w low.</br></br>
As expected zero answers from all the "smart traders". They have no plan it feels sooo good <strike>I wish</strike> it will continue forever. To summarize the usual emotianal crap and nonsense with no plan:</br>
- you are wrong so no decline - finding excuses, completely clueless.</br>
- it is higher 8000 points(NDX) so no decline - extrapolating the past into the future.</br>
- yields lower so no decline - history says the opposite every 4 years yields and indices decline in sync.</br>
- AI will change the world NDX 50k so no decline - probably some young guy with zero experince, riding all this hype, gamification of trading never seen a decline - read history adoption of new technologies quick check Internet and dotcom bubble.</br>
To be fair two weeks ago someone posted the main stream EW count impulse from 2009 and now the top of iii/5 ending diagonal. There is no impulse and the ED is very suspicious, best case there a-b-c from 2009 and this is iii/c ending diagonal with the same result. At least the guy has a plan which can be adjusted when we see the next decline.... all the others are just believers that the good times will last forever - I have news for you the good times are gone, all it is left is the sugar high the paper wealth.
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower - waiting for confirmation next week.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - looks like corrective w-x-y with plenty of zig-zags... difficult to see impulse. </br>
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Intermediate term - two double zig-zags for w-x-y at two Fibo targets. This should be the top of corrective B-wave and C-wave for a flat should follow. Alternate this is a-b-c from the 2020 low and the top from 2009.</br>
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Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower, alternate this is the top from 2009.</br>
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - weak with divergences.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - above zero, multiple divergences.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - very weak buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - multiple divergences.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - multiple divergences.<br/>
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - choppy moves makes it difficult to count shorter cycles. The highs look like three extended 10w cycles, 5w cycle high in the middle and three 20d cycles to complete 5w/10w/40w cycle high.<br/>
The lows - sticking to the theory 20w low in February, but vusualy probably three extended 10w cycles too.
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<br/><br/>
Week 19 for the 40w cycle. Probably 40w cycle consisting of three extended 10w cycles, but if I have to pinpoint 20w low it should be at week 16. <br/>
Week 32 high-to-high, at the top of at least 40w cycle... and very likely 18m cycle high too. <br/>
Average length for the 40w cycle is 32-36 weeks the last 40w low was 33 weeks long and now the high is 32 weeks long maybe the market is back to normal rhythm after shorter cycles from mid-2022 to mid-2023.
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DAX and bitcoin joined the euphoria to complete their patterns... on youtube - "buy bitcoin last chance to get rich" no comment:)</br></br>
I have posted 30+ years MSFT chart and three charts last week - show me how they are wrong and how a strong bull market is running... because I am so wrong show me how right and smart you are.
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower next week.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - either w-x-y double zig-zag or less likely a-b-c zig-zag with running correction b-wave.</br>
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Intermediate term - two double zig-zags for w-x-y at two Fibo targets. <a href="https://invst.ly/13rzv-" target="_blank">Another view</a> with line chart.</br>
This should be the top of corrective B-wave and C-wave for a flat should follow.</br>
Alternate this is expanding ending diagonal from the 2022 low for a-b-c from the 2020 low and the top from 2009.
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Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower, alternate this is the top from 2009.</br>
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - weak with divergences.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - around zero, multiple divergences.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - very weak buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - below 70 with divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - below 75 with divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - multiple divergences.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - multiple divergences.<br/>
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - probably bounce of 20d low and higher into 20d high, lets see if there is another day or two left.<br/>
Intermediate term - mature 10w and 40w cycles, the 40w cycle high/low divide better in three with no clear 20w high/low.
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Week 18 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low around June consisting of three extended 10w cycles. <br/>
Week 31, at a high of at least 40w magnitude... and very likely 18m high too.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYl56iBAs7Pc90ljl7FsNtMS56ygAzjiSDs5vqKlvQh1wvWoY85j2hl-rBeriZoB6F3cbCFRUnieX16gwWqu4wiuw_6TITfKrp1fRNFMeEfWkw8xkhMNlg1FLYVjjO_nqidrqxvU5JbmZvtxMpnCHaZ9UpkUxP9TyBYbMFW6rCf0AHExAtfwZRuXjcW0rf/s1801/6.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYl56iBAs7Pc90ljl7FsNtMS56ygAzjiSDs5vqKlvQh1wvWoY85j2hl-rBeriZoB6F3cbCFRUnieX16gwWqu4wiuw_6TITfKrp1fRNFMeEfWkw8xkhMNlg1FLYVjjO_nqidrqxvU5JbmZvtxMpnCHaZ9UpkUxP9TyBYbMFW6rCf0AHExAtfwZRuXjcW0rf/s820/6.PNG"/></a></div>Krasihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.com30tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-32653612898814547972024-02-24T07:00:00.002+01:002024-02-24T07:03:05.472+01:00Weekly previewThe 7 stocks bull market is now one stock bull market:) it made a high and completed the pattern, market breadth is awful and the cycle is at week 30 or 40w cycle high. Short said expect reverse lower into 40w cycle low May/June. By the way best case for NVDA wave iii/5 completed and one more high with divergence sometimes in April.</br></br>
I have shown already MSFT 30+ years chart and bonds 40 years trend reversed the environment has changed... not that someone will listen but I have more charts maybe a few will switch their brain on. The majority will prefer the nice warm feeling of greed at a blow off top kindly provided by AI/NVDA.
</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower next week.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - the indices are out of sync so trying to count the pattern on shorter time frames is difficult.</br>
NYSE/DJ/DAX have zig-zag sideways move and second zig-zag for SPX some how impulse can be counted....
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Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up... waiting for B-wave to be completed and C-wave for a flat should follow.</br>
Alternate this is expanding ending diagonal from the 2022 low for a-b-c from the 2020 low and the top from 2009.
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Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower, alternate this is the top from 2009.</br>
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - weak with divergences.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - around zero, multiple divergences.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - buy signal, divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - turning up, below 70 with divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - below 75 with divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - double divergence.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - multiple divergences.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - at 20d high, mature 10w and 40w cycles. With multiple divergences it is more likely this is the final high instead of one more 20d cycle high. The 40w cycle high divides better in three, there is no clear 20w high.
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Week 17 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low around June consisting of three extended 10w cycles. <br/>
Week 30, at a high of at least 40w magnitude... and very likely 18m high too.
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Europe MAJOR TOP move lasting 15 years is completing clear corrective zig-zags and blow off top.
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Japan two 18 year cycle highs, clear corrective zig-zags, blow off top, <a href="https://invst.ly/13j9hj" target="_blank">USD/JPY</a> risk off trade...
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<br/><br/>
Volatility(SVXY) spike every two years and clear zig-zag w-x-y from 2020 with double zig-zag y completed. Big move lower(volatility higher) is starting
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Krasihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.com37tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-13381471611685597802024-02-17T06:38:00.000+01:002024-02-17T06:38:32.187+01:00Weekly previewCompleting the pattern from the 2023 low. Short term the 20d cycle high says another 3-4 days higher.... or it can just truncate and plunge lower.<br/> Long term this is important high it could be even the top from 2009... if you look at stronger index like NDX it looks like zig-zag from 2020, weaker index like NYSE looks like b-wave of a flat and very weak index like RUT just a b-wave bearish flag.
</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower next week.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - depending where the low is you can count impulse c for a-b-c or double zig-zag y for w-x-y. I would bet on zig-zags.... </br>
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Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up... waiting for B-wave to be completed and C-wave for a flat should follow.</br>Alternate this is expanding ending diagonal from the 2022 low for a-b-c from the 2020 low and the top from 2009.
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Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower, alternate this is the top from 2009. </br>
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - trying to turn higher, but look very weak with divergencies.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - above zero with divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - turned up, divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - turned up.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - turning up, below 70.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - turning up, below 75.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - turned up with double divergence.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - multiple higher lows.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - 20d cycle low, now higher into 20d cycle high. The 40w cycle high divides better in three, there is no clear 20w high.<br/>
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Week 16 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low around June consisting of three extended 10w cycles. <br/>Week 29, at a high of at least 40w magnitude... and very likely 18m high too.
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</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower next week.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - NDX double zig-zag with three different Fibo measurements coverging together.</br>
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Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up... waiting for B-wave to be completed and C-wave for a flat should follow.</br>
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Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b with c-wave lower in 2024.</br>
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - very weak with divergences.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - around zero with divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - declining, below 70.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - declining, below 75.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - in the middle of the range with divergence.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - higher lows.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - at 20d high which should be 5w/40w high.<br/>
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<br/><br/>
We have 26 months from the previous high which means we have two 18m highs which means this is 18m high which means next is decline into 18m low. The highs and lows are aligned at pattern highs and lows, the sequence moves nicely - so this is the most likely count. <br/>
Anything else is make it fit... I will go this path twisting it to fit the theory only if this is proven wrong and it is not.<br/>
P.S. This is NDX with 2x13 months the same for the DAX is 2x15 months... I do not see how this is wrong.
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We can see one more pop up on Monday but, this is important top, it can get realy ugly... many see possible ED, election year, years ending with 4 and January higher are always higher:) it is impossible to decline. Looking at the last chart I am not an optimist and that is why I have the top in 2021/2022.
</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower next week.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - we saw the decline probably wave iv. The first target was reached it still possible to see one more high and touch the second target - starting from the lowest point this could be (iv) wave after <a href="https://invst.ly/13a0ar" target="_blank">extended (iii) wave</a></br>
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<br/><br/>
Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... waiting for B-wave to be completed and C-wave for a flat should follow.</br>
Alternate wave 4 of ED expected.
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed. Alternate if we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high in 2025.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - does not react to this rally at all... some pointing lower and divergences.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - below zero.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - moving lower.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - moving lower.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - turned lower with divergence.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - series of higher lows.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - 20d low as expected now at 20d high. It will complete 8x5w cycles for 40w cycle high.<br/>
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<br/><br/>
Week 14 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low around June consisting of three extended 10w cycles.<br/>
Week 27, at a high of at least 40w magnitude... and very likely 18m high too.
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<br/><br/>
Bonus chart(MSFT) for those still living in some fantasy world. We are at MAJOR inflection point. What started in the 80's is completing and reversing. Bonds/yields reversed after almost 40 years, the indices most likely in 2021/2022 too with a double top now caused by the tech sector completing their patterns. It is over, it is new environment, it is the inflection point of a life time. You can take profits or watch how everything evaporates.<br/>
It is not just MSFT but it is the perfect example - nothing much to explain the chart is clear. The trend from the last 30-40 years is over(it is much longer but the "investing life" is 30-40 years anyway).
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So mixed signals, but I would say one more 20d cycle high. We have 20d high and now decline into 20d low... probably a low around FOMC and final high after that.</br>
</br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - we have two legs with 1,618 ratio. So either Z zig-zag is completed or impulse is running and currently in iv/5.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... waiting for B-wave to be completed and C-wave for a flat should follow.</br>Alternate wave 4 of ED expected.
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed. Alternate if we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high in 2025.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - does not react to this rally at all... completely different behaviour compared to the firts leg.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - around zero.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - around overbought level with divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - around overbought level with divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - in the middle of the range and divergence.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - up and down.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - 20d high and now pullback into 20d low. Probably one more 20d cycle for 8x5w cycles and 40w high.<br/>
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<br/><br/>
Week 13 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low around June consisting of three extended 10w cycles.<br/>Week 26, one more 20d cycle high and top of at least 40w magnitude... and very likely 18m high too.
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Intermediate term - the indices diverge NYSE/DJ have 10w low this week SPX maybe earlier... it is again the few tech stocks making it look strong. Possible 40w high after 25 weeks as the previous two cycles alternate one more 5w cycle.</br>
Long term - this is at least 40w high(6 months long already) I think it is 18m high so after the top we should see decline into at least 40w low into June/July.</br>
Very long term - one way to count is 7y cycle 2002->2009->2016->2022->2029 it fits with ED pattern and higher low in June/July. The other option is stick to the theory 9y cycle 2002->2011->2020->2029 with 54 month(4y) cycle low right on schedule mid-2024 - which fits with flat pattern and testing the low from 2022. The second option has better pattern alignment - important cycle lows/highs are at pattern lows/highs as it should be, the first one has 7y low at a subwave... very odd.</br></br>
Overall picture - market breadth negative it could move up for divergence, RSI/MACD divergence daily and weekly, mature cycle, pattern five legs of what ever it is, magnificent 7 very toppy all with weekly divergences 5 wave impulses completing and half of them 5 of 5 wedge/ED. </br> Short said good luck holding longs... maybe this time is different and 20 points higher are worth it.
</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal. Crossing up and down the MA no clear or extended 10w cycles... not easy to follow the count.<br/>
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - the suposed fifth wave broke the channel this impulse is bullshit, third zig-zag z-wave for tripple complex pattern looks way better.
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<br/><br/>
Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... waiting for B-wave to be completed and C-wave for a flat should follow.</br> Alternate wave 4 of ED expected.
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed. Alternate if we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high in 2025.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing lower, some ticked up... maybe divergence will develop.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - oversold and turned higher.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - ticked up.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - ticked up.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - ticked up.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - another higher low.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - 20d low and now higher into 20d and 5w high. Other indices made their 10w low this week, the SPX seems made it earlier.<br/>
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<br/><br/>
Week 12 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low in June/July consisting of three extended 10w cycles.<br/>
Week 25 this could be the top as with the previous two cycles alternate one more 5w cycle. This top is of at least 40w magnitude and very likely 18m high too.
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</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - some count this as an impulse... this waves 2 and 3 are too ugly for me and 4 breaking the channel... I would rather count tripple zig-zag. </br>If you looking for impulse <a href="https://invst.ly/12-a-c" target="_blank">NYSE</a> looks more like impulse.</br>
I will not be surprised to see decline and the next trend line broken... may be we have not seen the 10w low.</br>
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Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... next should be decline probably C-wave for a flat.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low.If we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - ready for divergence when we see the price making higher high.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - below zero.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - pointing lower.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - pointing lower.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - moving lower.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - higher lows.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - 20d high now lower for a few days into 20d low. It looks like 5x5w cycle highs to me for 3x25 week long cycles.<br/>
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<br/><br/>
Week 11 for the 20w cycle. The last low should be of 40w magnitude and this high is of 18m magnitude consisting of 3x20w extended cycles instead of 2x40w.<br/>
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.
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</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - sell signal.<br/>
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - wave lower and now we should see turn higher, but it is not confirmed at the moment.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... next should be decline probably C-wave for a flat.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low.If we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - below zero.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - turning lower.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - turning lower.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - turned lower.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - turned lower.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - in the middle of the range.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - short term higher lows.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - at 20d low next is higher for 20d high.... probably 10w low too.<br/>
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<br/><br/>
Week 10 for the 20w cycle. This should be 20w cycle high and turn lower into 20w low. <br/>Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.<br/>
From the October.2022 low the cycles do not follow the theoretical model.<br/>
The highs - we have one 40w high and one 18m high consisting of 3x20w extended cycles instead of 2x40w, but the same average length 15-16 months.<br/>
The lows - we have 20w and 40w cycle, I guess one more 20w cycle(the current one) to complete 18m/4y cycle.
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Krasihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.com65tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-78836577015203161062023-12-30T14:38:00.000+01:002023-12-30T14:38:30.250+01:00Weekly previewNow we have pattern which looks completed, cycles which look completed and market breadth at extreme overbought levels. Next is reversal and decline into 20w/18m/4y cycle low.</br></br>
Interesting observations... maybe we will know more after we see the decline(I suspect big sideways pattern):</br>
- market breadth moves from one extreme(oversold) to the other(overbought) and back several times... this is not trending market.</br>
- cycles have different rhytm not what the theory says(length and proportion)... I have seen such thing with sideways patterns triangle for example.
</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process during the holidays.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - it looks like another double zig-zag and I suspect the high was two weeks ago.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... next should be decline probably C-wave for a flat.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low.If we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - extremely overbought.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - multiple divergences.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - extremely overbought.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - extremely overbought.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - extremely overbought.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - touched overbought and turned lower.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - short term divergence.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - after 20d low the indices are at 20d high. This is the third 20d cycle for extended 5w cycle high and this is the fourth extended 5w cycle for extended 20w cycle high.<br/>I have the suspicion the 20w high was earlier, it could be confirmed when we see the next 5w high.
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<br/><br/>
Week 9 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 22 discussed above.<br/>Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low. <br/>
From the October.2022 low the cycles do not follow the theoretical model. <br/>The highs - we have one 40w high and one 18m high consisting of 3x20w extended cycles instead of 2x40w, but the same average length 15-16 months.<br/>
The lows - we have 20w and 40w cycle, I guess one more 20w cycle(the current one) to complete 18m/4y cycle.
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Enjoy the holidays!!!! Not expecting dramatic events in the markets.
</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process during the holidays.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - the second leg completed... a-b-c zig-zag, until we see technical damage it still could be 1-2-3 and this is reaction lower wave 4.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... next should be decline probably C-wave for a flat.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low.If we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - topping, some with divergences.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - multiple divergences.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - buy signal, very overbought.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - buy signal, overbought.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - overbought.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - overbought.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - could not reach overbought level, double divergence.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - spike higher.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - we have mature 20w cycle high and first reaction lower... I expect some kind of topping, usually M-pattern(two highs). The logical path is 10w low and 5w high after the holidays then decline into 20w low.<br/>
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<br/><br/>
Week 8 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 21 discussed above.<br/>
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.
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Krasihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.com30tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-79413699994616321872023-12-16T06:58:00.000+01:002023-12-16T06:58:32.859+01:00Weekly previewHigher into FOMC and blow off end of the B-wave. From the high at the end of 2021 we have two very simillar moves and the pattern with high probability is flat. The 20d cycle high at day 10 and the 20w cycle high at week 20, double or simple zig-zag higher near completition or completed, indicators and market breadth with divergences and the most important the herd gone crazy.... smells like the top. </br>Expect some topping during the holidays like 2021 and then lower to complete the C-wave and 4y cycle low.
</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process during the holidays.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - looking at other indices the pattern is double zig-zag w-x-y alternate simple zig-zag a-b-c.</br>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZayrTXPjn3LtSo7jKYuCiTqZ5UBL_RY9mWOIWEUFQz4MtU84-ylB-jwnz0VtxdUUMu4UkC6LzVxv7aFTVYWWvUTehpvdvpeFG7MUrzAdg4dlEaLFFSsYHght5APz5aPtIx2nKm213evSDx7Yr-lEI3RQPXSUAuu7PUuzTqpXC7ipcdHHsPuFS7vVBA3NZ/s1809/2.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZayrTXPjn3LtSo7jKYuCiTqZ5UBL_RY9mWOIWEUFQz4MtU84-ylB-jwnz0VtxdUUMu4UkC6LzVxv7aFTVYWWvUTehpvdvpeFG7MUrzAdg4dlEaLFFSsYHght5APz5aPtIx2nKm213evSDx7Yr-lEI3RQPXSUAuu7PUuzTqpXC7ipcdHHsPuFS7vVBA3NZ/s820/2.PNG"/></a></div>
<br/><br/>
Intermediate term - two very similar moves including indicators. The bigger pattern is flat.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - very overbought some with divergencies.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - ovebought with double divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - buy signal, double divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - buy, signal, overbought level reached.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - overbought.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - overbought.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - could not reach overbought level, double divergence.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - tripple low?<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - at 20d cycle high at week 20 so this should be 20w high... if not we have extended 10w/20w cycles with one more 20d cycle to go.<br/>
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<br/><br/>
Week 7 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 20 discussed above.<br/>
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.
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Based on short term cycles the indices should move higher into FOMC, but again based on cycles we are in the time window for intermediate term high followed by 2-3 months decline.
</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal. In the time window for a high.<br/>
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term high in 1-2 weeks.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - trying to find some pattern in this sideways mess... NYSE/DJI and RSI say the pattern is double zig-zag with Fibo mesaurements show the top 40 points higher from the current level. Variations are possible like b/y is triangle and completes around FOMC then c/y.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Intermediate term - we have a-b-c/B with complex b/B wave. SPX looks like expanding triangle, but if you look NYSE or DJIA it is a running flat. This pattern works for almost every index.</br>Alternate the B-wave started earlier in June.2022 which does not change much... only b/B is bigger.
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started. </br>
Example pattern for "lucky b-wave".
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - time for a top, but no reversal yet.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - above zero, multiple divergences.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - at overbought level 70.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - short and long term divergences.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - short and long term divergences.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - third low at the same level.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - in the middle of the next 20d cycle high. Somewhere in this sideways mess we have 5w high and low and now moving higher into 5w/10w/20w cycle high.<br/>
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<br/><br/>
Week 6 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 19 discussed above.<br/>
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgINCqRYJOxiIGrXN4Wf-o9HIAWycpwP2XPZWx5cvvslLqkEPGnxsaZMnMMoGG17j0-Hz-ahzE6U3OUzz6z7qq9BDEVQ8xxgAEUyHDiRm2pDUJSXVHnChZaBP2dk8LYs9Qksf-hsj-r4CpYc8nc5kDGCRMUQkATZLFZHJ68UEP_X1AHdr-VrnuTViG0MMQQ/s1808/6.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgINCqRYJOxiIGrXN4Wf-o9HIAWycpwP2XPZWx5cvvslLqkEPGnxsaZMnMMoGG17j0-Hz-ahzE6U3OUzz6z7qq9BDEVQ8xxgAEUyHDiRm2pDUJSXVHnChZaBP2dk8LYs9Qksf-hsj-r4CpYc8nc5kDGCRMUQkATZLFZHJ68UEP_X1AHdr-VrnuTViG0MMQQ/s820/6.PNG"/></a></div>Krasihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.com56tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-69141314240798961702023-12-03T06:14:00.001+01:002023-12-03T06:14:54.222+01:00Weekly previewNYSE and DJI catching up this week. This is the final wave c/B there will be no pullback and higher for a zig-zag. That is all for the B-wave probably one more 20d cycle for 2-3 weeks... or it just turns lower next week all this at mid-4y cycle high two years after the 4y high.</br>
The first week this move started I wrote this wave behaves like final c-wave not like a beginning a-wave or correction b/2-wave. Now it is clear why - because it is c-wave. The pattern is shown on the daily chart - it has high probability because it works for almost every US index... just NDX is a little bit different.
</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term high in 2-3 weeks.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - it looks like impulse but I doubt it. I would say it is a double zig-zag and next week we should see completed a-wave and b-wave from the second zig-zag. If not it is a simple zig-zag makes a high next week c=a and it is over.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Intermediate term - I do not expect zig-zag to complete B anymore - this is the final wave c/B. We have a-b-c/B with complex b/B wave - SPX looks like expanding triangle but if you look NYSE or <a href="https://invst.ly/12i0j4" target="_blank">DJIA</a> it is a running flat. This pattern works for almost every index.</br>
Alternate the B-wave started earlier in June.2022 which does not change much... only b/B is bigger.
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing higher and overbought, there is some long term divergence... wait for a turn lower.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - buy signal, long term divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - close to overbought.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - overbought.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - close to overbought, long term divergences.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - testing the previous low.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - we have shallow 5w low, now the fourth 20d cycle is running. The last 5w high counts better as extended so one more 20d cycle looks better, but it is not a guarantee - we have four 20d cycle for a second 10w high and 20w high.<br/>
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<br/><br/>
Week 5 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 18 discussed above. <br/>
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.
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</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal<br/>
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low and higher for a few weeks, probably into year end.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - zig-zag, more likely part of a bigger zig-zag.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Intermediate term - there is two options w2 of C(very low odds) or e-wave completing the B-wave. </br>
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - still pointing higher, but now they have reset after oversold levels so turn lower is possible.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - rising.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - touched overbought.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - close to overbought<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - testing the previous low.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - two scenarios decline into 5w low and last push for extended 20w cycle high or this is the 20w high with three extended 5w cycles.<br/>
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Week 4 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 17 discussed above. <br/>Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.
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The question is - is that all or is it part of the usual double zig-zag. From pattern and cycle perspective there is enough for a high, but market breadth looks like in the middle of a move not a top. If this is the top this should be wave 2 of C impulse for a flat correction... not very likely. I would say the odds are higher for a double zig-zag into year end. </br></br>
Another interesting point - this could be the final wave to complete wave-B as a <a href="https://invst.ly/12adh3" target="_blank">triangle</a>. Some hints - the pattern makes sense at last with double zig-zag wave-A and triangle, strong wave typical for final wave not 2/b explained this at the beginning of the move, most of the "magnificent 7" are completing the fifth final wave from their lows last year with weekly and monthly RSI divergence, the rule of alternation - it is not likely that both waves A and C of a correction look the same starting with weak wave lower, two years between the highs like 2018-2019 now 2022-2023 for half 4y cycle high.</br>
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It looks strange the triangle, but it is because of the tech stocks. Look at NYSE or RSP(equaly weighted SPX) one more zig-zag higher and we will have triangle retracing 68%, overall pattern and cycle will look very good... or keep dreaming about cup with handle.
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low and higher for a few weeks, probably into year end.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - completed the zig-zag, more likely part of a double zig-zag.</br>
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Intermediate term - there is two options w2 of C(very low odds) or e-wave completing the B-wave. </br>
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Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - moving higher, in the middle of a move... not a top.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - second lower high.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - moving higher.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - moving higher.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - moving higher.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - testing the low.<br/>
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - third 20d cycle completing the third extended 5w cycle. Next should be decline into 5w low.<br/>
Either we have average 20w cycle high consisting of 3x5w extended cycles or we will see one more 5w cycle for extended 20w cycle.
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Week 3 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 16 discussed above. <br/>Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.<br/>
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This cycle is already 15 weeks long and if it has average length the high should be in 1-2 weeks, but looking at market breadth it should take longer to reset from oversold levels.
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low and higher for a few weeks.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - no change, a completed and b running the question is how long it will take.</br>
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Intermediate term - no change, a low at the support area and b-wave running.</br>
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Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - moving higher.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - declining after very overbought level.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - pointing higher.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - in the middle of the range.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - moving higher.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - declining.<br/>
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - a few days higher as expected and this should be at least 5w cycle. In this case decline into 5w low should follow.<br/>Less likely one more 20d cycle to complete three longer 5w cycles and 20w high(both scenarios shown on the chart).
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<br/><br/>
Week 2 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 15.<br/>
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Short said as I pointed out last week there is something strange with the pattern so surprises are possible.
</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term - possible low, but something does not feel right.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - completed w-y-z or impulse which breaks the rules. The "surprise" pattern zig-zag lower a-wave, expanded flat b-wave and another zig-zag lower.</br>
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Intermediate term - a low at the support area and b-wave running, or one more decline c=a to the next support area around 3900 MA200 weekly.</br>
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Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - touched overbought level.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - buy signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - turned higher.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - turned higher.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - turned higher, in the middle of the range.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - turned lower.<br/>
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - higher for 20d high as expected, this should be 5w cycle high in the next few days - in this case we should see turn lower into 5w cycle low.<br/>
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Week 16+1 for the 20w cycle. Possible 20w low, I have some doubts because of the pattern - lets see if we have confirmation next week.<br/>
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If you look at the histogram for example the price is still accelerating lower, there is no panic to signal a low... best guess a few weeks for a bottom to be formed and higher in December. I do not know how it will look like, the next support MA200 and the trend line on the weekly chart another 150 points lower
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - sell signal.<br/>
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term - nearing a low, in a few weeks.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - w-y-z alternate one more up and down for double zig-zag.</br>
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Intermediate term - lower low and the support area hit. There is a potential for a bottom, but no signs for reversal. There is one more target lower MA200 and the trend line on the weekly chart - see below.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - oversold and some divergences.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - multiple divergences.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - sell signal, oversold.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - neutral.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - oversold .<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - oversold, divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issue</a> - slightly oversold levels.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - grinding higher.<br/>
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - no clear 10w low, it looks like we have three longer 5w cycles. Maybe 20d low and higher next week....<br/>
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<br/><br/>
Week 16 for the 20w cycle. The indices should be near to a 20w cycle low.<br/>
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- from pattern perspective depends on which index you are looking at NDX is strong the decline looks corrective or RUT/NYSE weaker looks more like impulse with w5 just started.</br>
- from cycle perspective 2.5 half months(11 weeks) from the last high. I can say the decline is over and moving higher into 20w high or this is 10w high and next is 10w low which means one more lower low to complete 20w low.
</br>
So tricky - my opinion is we will see one more low and higher for the rest of the year. I waited to see how the week ends and most of the gains were retraced so no strong weekly candle to suggest reversal.
</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term not clear, I think we will see one more low.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - we have double zig-zag higher. It could be wave-a of bigger move higher or correction before continuing lower.</br>
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Intermediate term - a-b-c lower so far and 20w low expected. Logical targets - MA200 or slightly lower the trend lines.</br>I have the feeling we will see one more low.
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - either we have reversal or preparing for divergence.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - around zero.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - neutral.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - neutral.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - turned higher.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - turned higher.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - in the middle of the range.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - up and down.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - 20d high and next week we should see 20d low. Possible 10w/20w/40w cycles are shown.<br/>
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<br/><br/>
Week 13 for the 20w cycle. Moved the 40w low to the right in this case we have one more 5w cycle for 20w low.<br/>
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</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - buy signal.<br/>
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low expected soon.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - the move looks like impulse c-wave or maybe third wave. It could be that b/iv-wave is running and one more low will follow... so waiting and watching.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Intermediate term - a-b-c lower and 20w low expected. Logical targets - MA200 or slightly lower the trend lines.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - oversold levels, no divergences so far or signs of a bottom.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - below zero, divergence.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - almost touched oversold level.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - oversolld level.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - oversolld level and reversal.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - weak drifting higher.<br/>
<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - the price above the MA and the indicator breaking the trend line means high of at least 5w magnitude. Speculation on my side - three longer 5w cycles for 20w high sometimes in November. Short term higher into 20d high.<br/>
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<br/><br/>
Week 19 for the 20w cycle. Waiting for a low, maybe we saw it waiting for confirmation.<br/>
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</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - sell signal.<br/>
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low expected in a week or two.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - this bounce could be over, or it could be sideways pattern too early to say. Alternate the whole move lower is over, but one final decline looks more likely.</br>
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<br/><br/>
Intermediate term - a-b-c lower and 20w low expected. Look at the area around 4150 it has been tested so many times and it is the cross point with the trend line - such levels attract like magnet the price.</br>
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Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.</br>
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.</br>
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - still negative, no signs of a bottoming.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - around zero.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - moving lower.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - oversold level.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - pointing lower.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - looks like double bottom.<br/>
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - pop higher for 20d high which should be 10w high then final 20d low and 20w low.<br/>
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Week 18 for the 20w cycle. <br/>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0K9GfBsywtzime2gNul-gu7joQgyPcFdH8cYXme0MKnLb6xhxy7fqrY5Z0vR0XQmBW4CzJoJIaGygw7ci4RYIT4cCWRJNtt7y1jXoARRpxt1o3zJFcdOQse1R9D4T-KlV3xo2pgWCkiOX_gh2xILGFUxZj8XeF_Cwtltl0mefq3sGPKaooQrlKihb4Xeh/s1803/6.PNG" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0K9GfBsywtzime2gNul-gu7joQgyPcFdH8cYXme0MKnLb6xhxy7fqrY5Z0vR0XQmBW4CzJoJIaGygw7ci4RYIT4cCWRJNtt7y1jXoARRpxt1o3zJFcdOQse1R9D4T-KlV3xo2pgWCkiOX_gh2xILGFUxZj8XeF_Cwtltl0mefq3sGPKaooQrlKihb4Xeh/s820/6.PNG"/></a></div>Krasihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07425885123775585052noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4363707944748952823.post-34160959080242356602023-09-24T06:11:00.000+02:002023-09-24T06:11:23.146+02:00Weekly previewFrom pattern perspective the one from last week(see hourly chart) is still possible if you look at NDX/SPX/DJI, but if you take a look at NYSE/RUT/DJT/XVG you will see pretty obvious a-b-c lower with the c-wave running.
</br>
From cycle perspective in the first case expecting 10w high and continuation lower in the second scenario the indices are close to 20w low.</br></br>
If you want to see the real pattern and not skewed picture of the market by heavy weighted tech stocks you look at NYSE/XVG. This means the more likely scenario is a-b-c lower and 20w low in a week or two. Visualy shown with RSP - equaly weighted SP500.
</br></br></br>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">TRADING</span><br/>
Trading trigger - sell signal.<br/>
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low expected in a week or two.<br/>
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES</span><br/>
Short term - the first options B-wave of a flat, the second in a c-wave(red).</br>
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Intermediate term - RSP - equaly weighted SP500. Two zig-zags with triangle in the middle. The low of the x-wave is at week 34 which is perfect timing for the 40w cycle low(average length 32-36 weeks). Pattern and cycle fit perfect. </br>
Now a-b-c lower and 20w low expected.
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Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.</br>
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<br/><br/>
<span style="font-weight:bold;">MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS</span><br/>
Market Breadth Indicators - sell signals, no signs of a fear or a bottom.<br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p56190072374" target="_blank">McClellan Oscillator</a> - below zero.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62468135461" target="_blank">McClellan Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCSUMRSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03323205892" target="_blank">Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index</a> - sell signal.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p18620610922" target="_blank">Bullish Percentage</a> - pointing lower, in the middle of the range.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72027384449" target="_blank">Percent of Stocks above MA50</a> - oversold level.<br/>
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58973642170" target="_blank">Advance-Decline Issues</a> - pointing lower.<br/>
<a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42592100524" target="_blank">Fear Indicator VIX</a> - looks like double bottom.<br/>
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<span style="font-weight:bold;">HURST CYCLES</span><br/>
Short term cycles - there is no clear 10w low, it looks like 20w cycle consisting of three longer 5w cycles. We should see pop higher for 20d high and final 20d cycle to complete 20w cycle.<br/>
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<br/><br/>
Week 17 for the 20w cycle. Explained above so following this model. Not a big difference with the previous one, the low is still expected in January/early February. It is more about where you put the 40w/20w lows.<br/>
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