Nov 15, 2017
Update
The indexes are moving lower, but the pattern is a mess. There is serious battle around 2565 and four candles with long tails.... the futures are testing the level again.
There is two options - the price accelerates lower to the lower support level/MA50 or short term bottom and higher probably until Thanksgiving. RSI sharply lower around 50 and far away from the trend line, in Europe the indexes finished impulse lower and testing MA50..... the odds are higher that this is a short term bottom.
If we do not see a move below 2565 and SPX closing below 2565 near the low for the day... than we have a short term bottom.
With no clear impulse I see two options either a-b-c for wave 4 and 5 higher(green) or diagonal for 1/A and testing the top 2/B(red).
So do you think it would be wave 2 retracement or another small wave 5? Thanks. It looks like QQQ is still weak...
ReplyDeleteSee the new chart which I have posted. In the next 2-3 days we will know. QQQ has the same pattern.
DeleteNow it looks very weird.. Do you think this is really rebound to another big wave 5 or only flat correction? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteIt is more likely to be wave 5 to finish the move from the August low.
DeleteThen how about the height and time length? Until thanksgiving or?
DeleteAround 2610 and at least until Thanksgiving if it is wave 5... but I am not sure about the pattern
DeleteI still feel the down wave, at least wave IV not finished... at least the rebound looks not solid? May I have more clues/indicators to investigate the current situation? Thanks.
DeleteIt is ok to be wave 4 and 5 from the August bottom. I do not think more indicators will make the picture more clear, at the end they all show the same. There is no indicator which can guarantee you that the indexes will not move another 2-3 days higher.
DeleteYou can only search for hints looking for other indexes with more clear pattern.
For the short term bottom call I have used the DAX. Now when I look at the DAX and RUT I see only wave a up so I expect b and c before looking for another move lower. So the odds are higher that there is another 2-3 days up which means worst case expanded flat... this is what I see at the moment.
Nicely done again Krasi!
ReplyDelete- Kali
What chance your green 4 is A , yesterday was B and now we head to 2555 in C down ...?
ReplyDeleteNot very high.... first I think we will see finished impulse from the yesterday low so one more high above 2590 then if you are bearish you can count expanded flat from the 09.11 low (yesterday was b and now c running) or the top of wave 5 from the August low.
DeleteAt the moment I am just watching and comparing with other indexes... DAX,NYSE,RUT still suggest more to the upside.
Gold/gold miner begins rebound or another wave wave? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteMiners look like 5 waves lower with divergence so something higher is expected.
DeleteHi Krasi,
ReplyDeleteHow reliable are the RSI divergence indicators? I am looking at the XBI index and I see daily RSI divergence with higher low being made. Does this indicate that the downturn is over?
Thanks,
Kali
Also, do not respond or pay attention to that obnoxious individual. Please erase his messages if possible. It is incredibly distracting. Trading is such a psychological game. To have someone like that is very disturbing.
Delete- Kali
RSI divergence is very reliable signal, exception is very strong trend than you see RSI moving to overbought state several times and you have to move to longer time frame for more reliable signal.
DeleteBiotech diverge... IBB already with five waves, XBI only three so far. Move up si coming, but one more test of 77,50 and MA200 will look great to sync both ETFs and nice looking pattern.