Short term - the bulls see wave 1, the bears wave B and in the middle is a/B. The main scenario is now wave a running but we should see the price below 2700 for confirmation. Quick drop to finish an impulse and turn higher will look great next week.
Intermediate term - the price should spend some time between MA50 and MA200 followed by final plunge for 20 week cycle low.
Long term - wave B running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse and it is wave 1.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - now all indicators turned lower, there is no divergences to confirm major sell signal.
McClellan Oscillator - oversold levels.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower, sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned lower, sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - is heading higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower after divergences as expected.
HURST CYCLES
Day 27 or 50. You can count one long 40 day cycle or 20 week cycle consisting of three shorter cycles. In both cases we should see one more daily cycle which should be shorter 25-30 days to complete 20 week cycle.
Week 11 for the 20 week cycle. Another option is shorter cycles and this is the second 40 week cycle for the last 18 month cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Week 8 for a sell setup. Next week the price should close above 2775 for 9.
I agree that the market is heading down but not in a B wave, the B wave was completed last week. We will now be heading down in a C wave that will retest Dec lows. Most of the asian markets have started crashing. Look at Nikkei that has a clear Ending diagonal structure, we should see VIX>50 by early-mid april.
ReplyDeleteUnlikely this is way too fast. Finished B is the alternate scenario I am watching it closely and I will switch when I see confirmation.
DeleteWay too fast? It's been going on since December, almost the same length as A from Oct-Dec.
DeleteA wave Oct-Dec 3 months, wave B 10 weeks(two and a half months), wave C early April 4 weeks.
DeleteIs not this too fast? Forget about such plunge with such strong market breath.
Bear market rallies have strong market breadth, and they can end abruptly. Look at last March, look at Dec 4th, they both ended with strong market breadth (up greater than 1% the previous day). The time length is only off by 1-2 weeks (close enough). Markets don't have to be identically symmetrical, it's more theory than practical.
DeleteNow impulse lower has not been confirmed and we have only a-b-c.
DeleteDo you still think in three-four weeks we will see the price below the December low?
I think the down move is an expanding leading diagonal, this is the 4th wave. I was expecting this kind of move. If 2800 is taken out, count is invalidated and have to agree that it was 2 of an ED.
DeleteAH shows us right next to 2800, this practically invalidates my leading diagonal hypothesis. I think the C wave in the ABC down was an Ending diagonal. We should now be in a 3rd wave of a proposed bigger ending diagonal starting from January. Target is 2870.
DeleteI spoke too soon, SPX is having a hard time cracking 2800. My leading diagonal count is still valid and so the top may be in and we could be on our way to test Dec lows.
DeleteInteresting how is zig-zag lower and impulse higher a LD?!?!?
DeleteSorry Krasi. I'm all over the place. Let me clarify. For now I'm just watching. I'm still not convinced this down move is over until we take out 2820 because of the bearish engulfing that formed and strong resistance at 2820. We did form an impulse off the lows but have yet to take out the highs so we could still form a zigzag that would be 2 of a potential LD. For now, I'm just watching for a place to short. It's not worth taking long positions here imo.
DeleteHello, thanks for a great blog. Do you follow DAX..?
ReplyDeleteYes, I follow the DAX.
DeleteWhere do you think it is going next? Can share some wave count?
DeleteCorrective move a-b-c higher and now something lower like the US indexes. Currently on more lower low Monday will confirm impulse and reversal.
DeleteOk, thanks. I see first zig-zag move lower finishing also on Monday.
ReplyDeletePossibly a new high(around 2820) in by the Fridays futures/options expiration and then the beginning of a reversal?
ReplyDeleteIt is possible... test of the high, I still think correction is running.
DeleteThe alternative is some kind of ED.
when you talk high 2815 correct not 2940
Deleteyes 2820
DeleteThis is the ED pattern posted last week - https://imgur.com/a/p2y8Fgg
ReplyDeleteKrasi, 3 years cycle low on 24 of December?, I have seen it on swingcycles
ReplyDeleteI do not know about such cycle 3 years... There is 4 year cycle which often is shorter 3 and a half years, but 2 years and 10 months is way too short for me.
DeleteAnother pattern I'm seeing is a WXYXZ, the W was a flat around the bottom, the W is a double zigzag, the 2 X's are from Jan 3rd drop and last week's drop, Z can be anything but I'm hoping it'll be a simple zigzag. I'd love to hear what you think.
ReplyDeleteThis was possible count with Z the previous high now it is dead.... besides that it is very rare pattern.
DeleteHow is it dead? The previous high was part of the Y that was a double zigzag from Jan low.
DeleteThere is three zig-zags with roughly the same size from the Dec low to the previous high. Now it is something different.
DeleteFirst wave off the low till Jan high is not a zigzag it is an impulse. Part of C of a flat that starts just before the bottom.
ReplyDeleteYes, it is impulse for a/B and there is no triple zig-zag
DeleteIf it goes above 2850, i think it is B, not a/B
ReplyDeleteYes, than we will have 5 waves from the late January low and the probability is high that it is second leg or c/B.
DeleteWe saw overlapping and only 3 waves so I thought the leg is over in this case a/B - obviously not now probably ED.
Or if it was abc from October to December, now X, and then another abc instead of C. It is the same. The next big move will be bearish in abc or C
DeleteYes, this is possible. I did not want to dive to deep into theory if this is B or X. The outcome should be similar. Most of the time the final wave is impulse to finish the pattern and the current 20 week cycle is right translated so the first leg lower should be short living(like 4 weeks) which fits better with w1/C instead of something lasting longer like a/C(like 8 weeks).
DeleteWhen we see it developing then we should decide, the market will show us.
This situation seems similar to 2000-2009. The rise from 2003 to 2007 was almost without corrections
DeleteNot at all
DeleteMarch lows will be tested in my opinion
ReplyDeleteAlgo destroying Elliott wave
Nothing is destroyed ending diagonals are choppy patterns.
DeleteLower than the March low.