Trading cycle - still sell signal. Perfect hit of the trend line(I did not toucht it, I swear:) In a week or so this third daily cycle should be completed and we should see a bottom.... according to my cycle phasing.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - sideways correction, which looks like a flat. The pattern does not look like a bottom so we should see some kind of c wave lower... I doubt we have an impulse.
Intermediate term - MA50 was a support. SPX had the chance to bounce three times, but now it closed below it - this is not very bullish. Most likely the price will continue lower. MACD is starting to break below zero which is not good.
The cash index has target c=a around 3170 and the futures around 3120. Maybe the break below MA50 is a hint that MA200 will be tested.
Long term - I think the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern flat/triangle or x wave. With corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded.
RSI tested the broken trend line creating a divergence nice short setup.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new correction is running and sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - reseted from sligthly oversold level and turned lower again.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, oversold level reached.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing lower in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - we should see a spike and cool off again.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range after divergence and breaking the trend line.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we have the expected 20d high with length 10 days. Next we should see a decline for about a week for the next 20d cycle low, which should be 10w low. Cycle with the same length point to a low on 28th of September.
Week 10 for the 20 week cycle. I thought 3x10w for 40 week cycle is anomaly, but look at Q4/2018-Q1/2019 the same thing. I would say the reason is the speed - when the price moves too fast the cycles are shorter. Remember the down phase of this 40w high is 20w cycle lasting only 7 weeks(the biggest cycle anomaly I have seen). I would say it is perfectly fine if we saw the 40w high already.
2 september was 5w and 10w high?
ReplyDeleteThis is the minimum, the question is - is this 40w high.
DeleteI think the last 10w high was beginning August because it is impossible to fit 5w and 10w high from June.
DeleteThe other solution is three 5w high cycles from 8 June
Or 20 August was not 5w, it was beginning September and then 10w low will be in October
Deletegold broke out of it's triangle. finally
ReplyDeleteKrasi, do you think we are going to see the top again? If it's an ABC
ReplyDeleteLets see the decline first if it is over or there is more. If yesterday was the low there is some chance, if we see more lower - no.
DeleteKrasi, do you think the s and p will rebound by the end of October? Thank you
ReplyDeleteYes, October should be positive with the strongest part late October early November.
Deletecan Gold be anything other than A B-triangle C. In other words, could we have topped in Gold?
ReplyDeleteLess likely I see 4/c/Y like this - https://invst.ly/s7xd-
Deleteah ok thank you. So probably lower on the dollar as well till November
DeleteI have not thought about that, but yes everything will turn sharply lower at the same time and the USD higher.
Deleteexcellent thank you
DeleteOne more question about the dollar. Are you seeing it as a three wave structure something like this with one more down wave? It would put in a weekly bull divergence on top of the daily it already has. https://imgur.com/gallery/8fLcpWv thank you
DeleteEither this or double zig-zag June the X wave.
Deleteah ok thanks
DeleteHi Krasi, what time frame are you referring to when you say this.."but yes everything will turn sharply lower at the same time and the USD higher."?
ReplyDeleteAfter the elections in the USA, November looks bad.
DeleteI think we have completed a-b-c lower... RSI says so and DJ/NYSE have more clear zig-zag with c=a.
ReplyDeleteNow waiting to see if this a-b-c is the whole correction or part of something bigger.
Because of time I think it is part of something bigger.
Krasi, by part of something bigger, do you mean a continued move down, or are you thinking this is a short term bottom?
DeleteSomething bigger lower.... or with this plunge it could be a diagonal, which means more lower for sure.
DeleteDiagonal?? - https://invst.ly/s8fp2
ReplyDeleteMakes sense with the dollar climb
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3VCS_lTSL0&ab_channel=SentientTraderVideo
ReplyDeleteIt is official the 20w low was not in June it was in July and now we are seeing 10w low.
DeleteIf you examine more closely the charts you will see that the diagonal shown for the futures above will not work for the cash index. The cash index overlaps with the the bottom from 11th of September(the square on the chart), but this is part of the b/2 wave and not from supposed wave 1 - RSI confirms it. Short said there is no overlap for a diagonal on the cash index.
ReplyDeleteI would say wave c is running and itself could be a diagonal and will take another 2-3 days to hit perfectly the time target - https://invst.ly/s8ry-
And what after the target?
ReplyDeleteHigher for 5w or even 10w high...
DeleteKrasi,
DeleteMay I know what is 5w and 10w high?
I get lost with the timing but I follow your teaching on the importance on learning the difference between impulse and corrective
and this move down from early Sep is corrective so theoretically it should retrace back up around 3600.
Pls send me know if what I learned is correct?
I use d for day and w for week - 20d instead of "twenty day cycle" or 5w instead of "five week cycle".
DeleteTiming is so easy 20d low was expected wave a we have it, what follows is 20d high we had it last week wave b, next is 20d low this week Friday or Monday next week for wave c - we have it.
Guess what follows - 20d high:) This shorter cycles make longer cycles 2x20d=5w 4x20d=2x5w=10w and so on.
It looks like a-b-c zig-zag, but it is tricky.... it is too big and too long to be part of the rally from March. That is why I think it is part of something bigger to the downside, so new high 3600 is not a guarantee.
Krasi,
DeleteThankyou for your reply . So looks like it is best to look at your 1st graph. It is should be around 3400-3500 for the next leg up. Am I right?
No guarantee any higher after that.
The first chart just shows higher. It is too early to predict corrective waves when they have not even begun.
DeleteThank you for your reply
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s8ry Krasi, this link not working
ReplyDeleteYou need to copy the entire link with the hyphen: https://invst.ly/s8ry-
DeleteGood luck
Hi Krasi,
ReplyDeleteQuick question on LODE, I know it is a small mining stock but just curious what do you see from TA point of view? IMHO one more flush to the downside would look better but...
Short term probably a little bit lower to try to close the gap. So far there is no technical damage - MA50 and RSI trend line look good... probably they will be tested.
DeleteThe big picture it seems it follows the broader market I suspect similar pattern - a low soon bounce higher and another leg lower.
Gold probably reverse today. Spot seems to want the 100 ma first at 1844. Dollar close finishing it's bounce.
ReplyDelete