Trading trigger - buy signal... very extended cycles in both directions count easier.
Analysis - intermediate term high and a few months lower.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the c-wave now with 1,618 extension or it could be the usual w-x-y.
Intermediate term - zig-zag testing the top.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - positive, but it does not look like reversal.
McClellan Oscillator - close to overbought.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - close to overbought.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the lows again.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d high next we should see 20d low. Heading higher into 10w high, visually three extended 10w cycles count easier.
Week 28 for the 40w cycle. Probably 20w low at week 20 in March and expected 40w cycle low in June. As I wrote many times visualy it will look like three extended 10w cycles. The indices are at 18m high, those who think all is fine we saw the low for the year will be disappointed.
looks like wave B retrace may be over. expecting a bloodbath into late may / early june. stop is clear at today's high +1. we'll see.
ReplyDeleteJP
"hope" is not a good thing in trading:)) i think we test the 200 dma by then..
ReplyDeleteJP
are we gonna crash? it looks so difficult to crash.
ReplyDeleteThe dollar get Strong to down, since then you can see triangle that maybe B wave and we are waiting for C wave down, so what does it mean for the stocks?
ReplyDeleteThe crash just when they will cut rate
ReplyDelete200dma?....just let's get back to 20 day
ReplyDeleteKrasi, didn't see any of your chart showing a higher high or ATH. is this within the estimate you proposed? how much higher are we talking about?
ReplyDeleteIt is obvious that April was 20w low, now we are going to 40w high at 5450 (trend line highs years 2000-2021) and August 40w low and maybe 4y low at 3600
ReplyDeleteYou'll get your comment blocked if you mention 5450
Delete200 dma test is coming within 3-4 weeks i believe. we'll see
ReplyDeleteJP
S&P to 5330, this is my target, short from this point
ReplyDeletethese charts wrong, put pretend not to be, can't wait for multi-month lower move during summer
ReplyDeleteFull with "experts" with their targets.... at the top as usual.
ReplyDeleteWhere were all of you at the bottom? Literally ZERO comments.
Typical herd mentality - brave with the herd at the top and hiding after that.
Can you please provide a short / intermediate term chart? How many days upside left you think?
Deleteno offense, Krasi, but people on here have been calling it long at ever perceived 'top' for a year now, so you can call them experts or sheep or whatever you want, but you also need to call them correct too. Would much rather be in their position than someone looking to get short or even worse, already short.
DeleteGuess we'll see in a few weeks....
ReplyDelete