Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - important top 18m high, which could be the price high for the 4y cycle.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - from the late May low we have completed double zig-zag. Equal length for the two zig-zags was reached this week. Either this is the top or mirror image of the previous leg mid-April to mid-May and something like double top.
Intermediate term - double zig-zag and topping similar to 2021 with RSI/MACD divergences on all time frames daily/weekly/monthly. Other indices like NYSE/DJ/SPXEW are not following - sideways corrective move in June.
Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no, change, weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high and next week we should see 20d low. Possible intermediate term high extended 10w or shorter 20w cycle what ever it is.
At 18m high, the cycles 10w/20w/40w deviate from the usual length... if the indices continue with this rhytm we should see 18m low short before the US elections.
Pretty consistent cycle highs every 12+-1 weeks... now at week 12 from the previous high. Maybe shorter 20w cycles or 40w cycle dividing in three not two.
Thanks, what do you think on TLT
ReplyDeleteclearly market action doesnt look impulsive to the downside. if at all we may be forming a declining wedge/ed that could bottom in couple of days. but unless we see a breakdown action still looks bullish and the energizer bunny is still alive. will see.
ReplyDeleteJP
If we go lower overnight it will look like a leading diagonal on futures
Deletei think we will have a gap up open that will be sold later in the day. regardless this whole action so far looks like consolidation, i dont see any breakdown so far
DeleteJP
krasi do you see a new ath on spx coming soon as part of a final w5 blowoff top or is this a waveB retrace after a lame waveA we had last few days which would be a mega distribution before the decline ? very frustrating tape.. thank you
ReplyDeleteJP
The current move up looks like corrective b-wave. DJ with impulse lower and corrective move higher, NDX weaker so the odds are higher for move lower.... after that we will see.
DeleteOne more high, it goes up of the bull flag
ReplyDeleteIt's a triangle on futures
ReplyDeleteclear triangle on es but a triangle can be a w4, wB or an ending pattern as well. i guess gdp today and pce tomorrow will clarify it.
DeleteJP
i think we may have a blowoff into next week holidays before lights out
DeleteJP
If it completed today tomorrow should be down. The first impulse was down so according to EW it should continue down. But who knows? If we're up tomorrow then we'll get the wave 5 for sure into next week. Tomorrow will be important either way.
DeleteWe see the top!!!!
ReplyDelete