Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - important top 18m high, which could be the price high for the 4y cycle.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - now we have second leg mirror image of the previous one with roughly the same size.
Intermediate term - double zig-zag and topping similar to 2021 with RSI/MACD divergences on all time frames daily/weekly/monthly. Other indices like NYSE/DJ/SPXEW are not following - sideways corrective move in June.
Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no, change, weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - some kind of bottoming.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d high to complete 10w/20w high.
At 18m high, the cycles 10w/20w/40w deviate from the usual length... if the indices continue with this rhytm we should see 18m low short before the US elections.
Pretty consistent cycle highs every 12+-1 weeks... now at week 14 from the previous high. Maybe shorter 20w cycles or 40w cycle dividing in three not two.
Thanks Krasi. Why do you think the other indices are not following? Do you have any thoughts about their likely trajectories?
ReplyDeleteIn your Long term chart they can go to the top line, 6000 by blew off top?
ReplyDeleteBlue off to 6000.
Deleteeveryone is getting excited about the coming fed rate cuts thinking it will be bullish for equities. when the fed starts cutting rates the market will have already started the decline and will accelerate as the rate cuts follow. what the morons dont understand is that the fed will begin cutting rates when the economy begins to slow down, which we have started to see signs of it. things to watch are economic figures not inflation data. i would not be surprised to see a 1987 crash scenario this year. well see.
ReplyDeleteJP
JP
one more big warning. we have a vix positive divergence for almost 2 months now.. and today vix is green.
DeleteJP
if we dont see a new high by monday/tuesday next week the TOP is in. tomorrow/friday will show us.
DeleteJP
is today the final euphoria? simply madness!
ReplyDeletedo or die right here. If they don't reject it here, it's another ath into the end of the day and everyone goes home relived.
ReplyDeleteThe tech sector is done now the rest of the indices catching up with their double zig-zag or best case triangle/wedge - https://invst.ly/15k54v
ReplyDeleteare you trying to imply that they will sync to ATH and crash together?
DeleteLooks like an A B today with a C finishing next week. Maybe we're in a topping process
ReplyDeleteor maybe an ed forming in its early stage that will take another week to complete. regardless this huge volatility is a precursor of what is coming soon. based on market action i believe we have a high probability of a market crash this year into presidential elections.
DeleteJP
I agree, but these topping processes can exhaust everyone first and that could take weeks.
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