Apr 26, 2025

Weekly preview

Now we have the expected pattern and cycles look on time so if the indices continue to follow the forecast we should see move lower in the next two weeks. I think at least the low should be tested with deep retracement. Interesting is so far the indices follow the same path like in 2007, lets see if the low will be tested like in 2007


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the pattern is nearing completition and something lower should start next week.


Intermediate term - I am expecting the low to be tested and higher into July/August.


Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher and maybe divergences later if the low is being tested.
McClellan Oscillator - very overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at least 20d/5w high which could be 20w high too and next is decline into 5w low.


The indices are in the time band for 40w cycle low (maybe it was in April), next is move higher into 40w high.
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19 comments:

  1. KrasiApr 26, 2025, 8:49:00 AM

    Everybody counting impulse from 2020, but two legs with the same size are very suspicious and more likely a zig-zag - https://invst.ly/1a6pv2

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    1. KrasiApr 26, 2025, 9:08:00 AM

      DJ(SPX the same) the bullish case 4 and 5 but of lower degree - https://invst.ly/1a6p-5
      This will fit with cycles much better and it could work. With waves 1-2-3 lasting almost 5 years it does no make sense expecting 4-5 lasting roughly one year.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousApr 28, 2025, 2:28:00 AM

      Exactly, agree with this count/projection. Top in 2026

      Delete
  2. AnonymousApr 26, 2025, 2:10:00 PM

    I follow alot of people of Twitter. The majority is expecting a retest of the low. This means it's not getting tested or going much lower. Twitter is always wrong.

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    1. KrasiApr 27, 2025, 8:09:00 AM

      This is not representative picture for the market.....

      Delete
  3. larryApr 26, 2025, 9:03:00 PM

    I have been reading your blog for years. Even did a performance analysis using your triggers which showed your approach effective and shared it on your site a couple years ago, only to have some troll attack. Thank you for your insightful and valuable work.

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    Replies
    1. KrasiApr 27, 2025, 8:06:00 AM

      I know, but majority does not care.... too much emotions.

      Delete
  4. larryApr 26, 2025, 9:06:00 PM

    I have followed your blog for years. It is insightful and valuable. Thank you.

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  5. AnonymousApr 28, 2025, 3:29:00 PM

    Thank you for sharing

    ReplyDelete
  6. KrasiApr 29, 2025, 5:42:00 AM

    Cycle analysis - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BJiwDFqs64
    Their daily cycle corresponds to the 40w Hurst cycle and it is higher into July.
    Their weekly cycle corresponds to the 4y cycle roughly 3.5 years long from the 7y cycle https://invst.ly/1a7nhm

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  7. AnonymousApr 29, 2025, 2:42:00 PM

    Dax since end March looks like flat wave, target 18000 if c=a or 15000 if c=161 of a

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  8. AnonymousApr 30, 2025, 3:54:00 PM

    We are going to 5w low

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  9. Lady SMay 1, 2025, 4:56:00 AM

    Krasi, we are going to the top, or new ATH like 6500?

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  10. AnonymousMay 2, 2025, 6:15:00 PM

    So pullback is over into June now?

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  11. Lady SMay 2, 2025, 7:14:00 PM

    Or, AB=CD today

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  12. KrasiMay 3, 2025, 7:05:00 AM

    Maybe early next week.

    ReplyDelete