Тrading diary / Position trading, Swing trading, Daily trading / Technical analysis Дневник / Практическо приложение на технически анализ / Споделяне на идеи
Sep 13, 2025
Update and long term view
Time to look at the big picture because the indices reached the end of the road from 2009.
First short term - I see the usual double zig-zag, both Fibo measurement for c and Y point to the same area 6630-6640.
Or you can count impulse if you want. Both corrections are running one - flat and triangle so the sheeple do not see a correction and the stupid comments are getting more as usuall at the top.
Short term cycles - one more 20d cycle for 40w cycle high.
Long term - I have looked at the long term cycle charts and do not think there will be pullback b-wave and another high. Based on pattern and the cycle high below this looks like the high - I do not buy the ED count with another b-c wave... ooo I have forgotten - it did not decline for the last 1/2/3 years so it is all wrong.
The 7y cycle highs - reached 4y cycle high which is roughly 3.5 years long.
The 7y cycle lows - looks like sequence of long-long short-short 3.5 year cycles and we have the bounce from the second short cycle in the sequence.
The 9y cycle lows - the current 9y cycle has no visible candidate for the 4y cycle low(see below)
The pattern from 7y cycle perspective starting from 2009 - I see two impulses for a-b-c.
NDX as an example - from 2020 I see impulse which is weaking and taking the shape of a wedge, but I do not think this is ED.
Cycles - I see two 18m cycle lows between the start of the impulse and the low of wave 2 and two more between the lows of wave 2 and 4. I see one 18m cycle high between the highs for wave 3 and 5 and two 18m highs between wave 1 and 3.
Fibo just a coincidence I guess - in non-logarithmic scale c=2.618xa, in logarithmic scale c=0.618xa
The pattern from 9y cycle perspective starting from 2011 - I see two zig-zags for w-x-y.
DJ as an example - from 2020 I see two impulses for a zig-zag, I do not think this is ED.
Cycles - the first 9y cycle divides perfectly in two, the current one visually looks like sequence of three 18m pairs instead of two 4y cycles.
Fibo just a coincidence I guess - in non-logarithmic scale Y=1.618xW, in logarithmic scale Y=0.618xW
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