Update

The obvious is to count this as another wave up fifth wave most likely ending diagonal the first two charts... I think it is something else like January-February this year - it does not matter the outcome will be the same.

It looks like ending diagonal... but it could be the usual double zig-zag

Ending diagonal is the final wave, no mater the count a-b-c or extended fifth wave like this and other variations of an impulse.

The cash index looks like choppy double zig-zag. This huge bar and vertical decline is usually 3/c wave completed pattern which will explain the following move taking so long. It fits better with the RSI broken trend line and divergences plus cycles. It is the same like early this year - pattern high was not the price high, which does not cancel the correction.

If you apply the above to cycles th

Bitcoin great looking 40w cycle... the logical path and target for 4y cycle low.
More about bitcoin cycles - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0hzGfLLKSg

Update

Choppy price action, definetively corrective waves most likely b-wave triangle.

I see possible impulse lower followed by zig-zag higher and another one lower retracing 78% which is typical for triangle.

It looks like the market is heading for 20d cycle high - another 2-3 days to complete triangle will fit perfect.
Notice how the price action develpos below MA10.

Update

Who could have seen this coming.... wait EW and cycles... no they do not work.
There were warning signs for weeks everywhere you look - wedging pattern, mature cycles, technical analysis divergences, market breadth divergences and probably every other tool used to analyze the market.
Only the arrogant sheeple did not see it coming and now hold the bag as usual - one day wiped out one month.

Intermediate term - such big candles are the start or the end of a move - in this case the start. What is starting? - decline into 40w low until the second half of November... at least.
Long term - The first two charts show the two possible scenarios... I think it will be the more bullish one, somehow pattern and cycles feel better.

Preffered scenario.... 4y cycle low at the right time and place the b-wave and you can count almost perfect 3x18m cycle highs for 4y high and the pattern counts better.

Bearish one possible.... only wave 2 does not feel deep enough there is nothing else to say, 4y cycle low at the same place, 4y cycle high 45 month long perfect average. The hint, which scenario is more likely, is maybe to look other indices for example RUT feels unfinished and needs one more down up for the same pattern like above.

Short term - Wedging pattern for weeks, the count has been completed and sharp reversal - what a surprise.

Intermediate term - Minimum target is support and MA200 retracing the wedge. This is not even 38% retracement.... if the bullish scenario from above plays out expect 62% retracement to around 5600.

GOLD long term - blue lines are 16y cycle highs and red lines are 16y cycle lows. Gold is close to 16y high with pattern expanding wedge. You can see history what happens - 4-5 years lower for 16y cycle low and cut in a half. Maybe this time is different.... no it is not.
The current 16y high divides better in three longer cycles instead of 4x4y cycles.
P.S do not expect to plunge tomorrow it could take another year topping - see 1980-1981 first blue line.

Bitcoin 4y cycle highs and lows. BTC is at 4y cycle high and decline into 4y cycle low will follow. Support is in the 15k-35k area. If history repeats 80% decline is 25k which is in the middle of the support area.
P.S. BTC and stock indices have very high correlation another red flag to expect decline for the indices.

Update

The impulse from last week was most like third wave and this week the fifth wave. I see the pattern shown below all this with RSI/MACD divergence, market breadth divergence and at week 33 from the previous important high.
Short term v/5/c is possible, for example the DAX will look better with one more high.
Intermediate term - the same like last week expect intermediate term high and decline into November.
Long term I explained many times it could be 4y high.

NDX I see two impulses and it is confirmed by RSI.

DJ the same even more clear.

Weekly preview

We have completed pattern at Fibo level for example NDX or SPX and turn lower in the early stages.
Cycles are bearish - at important high. Market breadth is bearish - very weak with divergences for a long time.

I would say expect decline into 40w low sometimes in November.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - It looks like a-b so far.

Intermediate term - Next should be decline to MA200 and support.

Long term - touching the trend line one more time with divergence.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - very weak with divergences for a long time.
McClellan Oscillator - reseting higher.
McClellan Summation Index - pointing lower with divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - pointing lower with divergence.
Bullish Percentage - divergences.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this should be 20d/5w/10w/20w high. The path is lower shown on the chart.

Long term cycles - week 32 from the last high from February, time for another important high and decline into 40w low.

Update and long term view

Time to look at the big picture because the indices reached the end of the road from 2009.
First short term - I see the usual double zig-zag, both Fibo measurement for c and Y point to the same area 6630-6640. Or you can count impulse if you want.
Both corrections are running one - flat and triangle so the sheeple do not see a correction and the stupid comments are getting more as usuall at the top.

Short term cycles - one more 20d cycle for 40w cycle high.

Long term - I have looked at the long term cycle charts and do not think there will be pullback b-wave and another high. Based on pattern and the cycle high below this looks like the high - I do not buy the ED count with another b-c wave... ooo I have forgotten - it did not decline for the last 1/2/3 years so it is all wrong.

The 7y cycle highs - reached 4y cycle high which is roughly 3.5 years long.

The 7y cycle lows - looks like sequence of long-long short-short 3.5 year cycles and we have the bounce from the second short cycle in the sequence.

The 9y cycle lows - the current 9y cycle has no visible candidate for the 4y cycle low(see below) - the best candidate is the sharp decline from this year.

The pattern from 7y cycle perspective starting from 2009 - I see two impulses for a-b-c.
NDX as an example - from 2020 I see impulse which is weaking and taking the shape of a wedge, but I do not think this is ED.
Cycles - I see two 18m cycle lows between the start of the impulse and the low of wave 2 and two more between the lows of wave 2 and 4. I see one 18m cycle high between the highs for wave 3 and 5 and two 18m highs between wave 1 and 3.
Fibo just a coincidence I guess - in non-logarithmic scale c=2.618xa, in logarithmic scale c=0.618xa

The pattern from 9y cycle perspective starting from 2011 - I see two zig-zags for w-x-y.
DJ as an example - from 2020 I see two impulses for a zig-zag, I do not think this is ED.
Cycles - the first 9y cycle divides perfectly in two, the current one visually looks like sequence of three 18m pairs instead of two 4y cycles.
Fibo just a coincidence I guess - in non-logarithmic scale Y=1.618xW, in logarithmic scale Y=0.618xW

Quick update

The two possible patterns - the outcome will be the same. Another interesting point is the cycle highs like echo - two highs December-February two months apart and 7 months later the same. Short said the market will turn lower into 40w cycle low November/December.

Quick update

Looking at RSI(shows b-wave not divergence), market breadth(divergence earlier and lower high now) and cycles(in the middle of some longer cycle) this looks like the most likely pattern. Confirmation will be sharp, but short living decline for c-wave.

DAX seems to be on track - the pattern I have shown a few weeks ago.

Quick update

If you look at DJ/NYSE/SPXEW you will see this pattern - the usual w-x-y with very clear subwaves. This translated in intermediate term is shown below - for now assuming b-wave correction of the rally from April.

Weekly cycles - I think we saw the 20w low next is 40w high already one week longer than the average and next is 40w low November/December.

Alternate patterns
Impulse with fifth wave ending diagonal

Expanded flat running c-wave to MA200 and 20w cycle low, RSI looks more like this not like ED.

Quick update

If you look at DJ/NYSE/SPXEW you will see something like on the first chart. Because of the AI bubble you see new high. For those cheering check November-February SPX/NDX and the other indices.
BraVoCycles Newsletter @BraVoCycles: "3 of the Magnificent 7 stocks: AAPL, GOOG and NVDA collectively contributed 109% and 151% of SPX and NDX gains, respectively, in the last 3 days. Without them SPX and NDX would have been red!"

DJ - normal corrective price action and possible impulse count from the April low

SPX - probably the same price action like DJ - corrective wave with triangle in the middle, but because of the tech overweight you see new highs. Commented about this already exatcly like November-February highs check - SPX/NDX and the other indices.

DAX - looks like triangle

Quick update

Small waves 4/5 followed by bearish weekly reversal candle, the pattern has been completed right on schedule and now move lower has started.
This is week 17 so in the next 1-3 weeks, probably mid-August, we should see 20w cycle low and higher into September.

The next important lows/highs are 40w low November/December and 40w high February/March. When the market reverses it is gradually not with a crash - what I wan to say is between now and February/March 2026 expect series of lows and highs and after that the market will dive lower. For examples look at years January-August.2000, May-December.2007, August.2021-March.2022

For now assume that there is one more high and b-wave has started, but look for the exit.

Perfect waves and Fibo measurements.

Support area and MA200 should be the target

Quick update

Right on schedule the pattern should be completed this week at week 34 for the 40w high(average 32-36 weeks), market breadth is on sell with divergences.
This is important top I think at least 40w high and there is probability this is the 4y cycle high.

Small waves 4/5 are possible to complete perfect impulse c/Y and the whole pattern.

I will not be surprised to see zig-zag like this and 4y cycle high.... too much euphoria, M-pattern topping process for 8 months, divergences - enough ingredients for important top.

Most EW guys see ED from the 2020 low... it just does not look like ED too weak second wave too long and strong third wave. If there is one more 40w high and ED it is rather this:

Quick update

Choppy price action in July, pattern looks like this.... and this should be 40w high maybe next week.

Weekly preview

The indices transition from up to down next is decline for a few weeks and 20w low. After that one more up move into September/October.... and major top completing the move from 2009. Enjoy the summer after that it will not be very funny.
For the next several weeks I will post only quick updates.



TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - turning lower, too early to project a pattern. 38% Fibo retracement is around the previous important low for the X-wave.

Intermediate term - next should be b-wave. In red the alternate bearish scenarios wave 5 or flat c/Y.

Long term - wedge(from 2020) for c/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2025.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turning lower and divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero and divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - bottoming.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - transition from 20w high to 20w low.

Long term cycles - looking at other indices and shares primarily the tech sector(it drives the market higher) the cycle model for the highs which looks best is the one shown below. It fits with the lows, makes 4y cycle high a month or two short of 4 years so it looks good.
I will follow this one, the difference is shifting the count with one 20w cycle high to the right.

Weekly preview

As expected a few more days higher to complete the 20d cycle high which should be at least 20w cycle high.
Short term it looks like we have double zig-zag - two legs with the same length in time.
Intermediate term - higher into July as expected and now pattern+cycles+market breadth pointing to completed move and time to decline into 20w cycle low for the rest of July.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like the usual double zig-zag. I see two legs with the same length and 50% Fibo correlation.

Intermediate term - next should be b-wave. In red the alternate bearish scenarios wave 5 or flat c/Y.

Long term - wedge(from 2020) for c/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2025.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - divergences and time for turn lower.
McClellan Oscillator - divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned higher and divergence.
Bullish Percentage - divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - short and long term divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this should be 20d and 20w cycle high.

Long term cycles - this should be 20w high and possible 40w cycle high.