May 30, 2026
Update
Short term - top next week.
Intermediate term lower into July - I will not be surprised to see the whole advance retraced.
Long term - major top completing the whole bull market from 2009.
I am traveling abroad for several weeks so I will not post updates.
It took two weeks but there we are at the top. Watching other indices like DJ and DAX it will take a few days topping.
SPX maybe this - https://invst.ly/1hrx-l
DJ should complete the c-wave https://invst.ly/1hrxy6
DAX should complete the correction - https://invst.ly/1hrxxl
Long term - the bubble accelerating with every leg. The third leg reached vertical phase with very narrow participation and awful indicators. Now follows what every time happens with a bubble.
Thanks Krasi. How do you see USD and US 10 year alongside the above please?
ReplyDeletemay be there is one more leg upside if 20w high was in March instead February then this is only 10w high and for July 20-40w and 4y high
ReplyDeleteIt does not make sense the previous high was in January and 4 Months later the next one as expected
DeleteYou are way too early on a major retrace. There has been two major cycles since the great depression. The next will not start until at least 2029. Probably more around 2033-2037. It's always been this way and nothing will change it. It's a cycle as old as humanity. It will become obvious in a few years but by then too late for most. Good luck to all.
ReplyDelete2033-2037 is too late probably second leg lower. There is importsnt change between 2030-2032 - it will happen before that. There is 4 year cycle high now, 4y cycle low in 2027 and 4y cycle high in 2029. There is no problem 2029 to be lower high, double top or something like that. We will know more in 2027...
DeleteKrasi - My work is pointing to a Dec 2026 - Mar 2027 Low. Correction of bear high to Jun-Aug 2027, followed by The Drop into April-June 2029. Your expecting a high in that period. When do you expect the 1st drop from hear to bottom?
DeleteFor context, with the 1st drop bottoming ~5000, or take out Apr 2025 low for perfection, before corrective rally.
Delete7000 is support, 6330 is the last low
ReplyDeleteThe Hormuz Waltz - The orchestra plays on. The water rises. The crowd asks for one more song.
ReplyDeleteNearer My God to Thee
DeleteDAX just completed the move you mentioned?
ReplyDeleteOr the bull trap occurred today... Anyhow, that's a rather bullish gap up this morning. Lets see if it holds.
DeleteDax, in lifeboat already and wondering if there actually is a problem, perhaps false alarm. Dax, Probability, its over - 80%. 20% - could make a 1 day all time high. Just waiting for the SPX, min requirements met. It could still make multiple new rolling highs into the perfect window 5th - 9th. Like cake with no topping, Its complete as it is...
ReplyDeleteWatching 7591, when hit, If it could push through to 7571 to 7561. 60% Prob. The band has stopped playing
ReplyDeletedon't seems to be bearish, consolidating before another run to 7700!
ReplyDeleteDreamer on pullback
ReplyDeleteGet one pullback right in your life
ReplyDeletesell commencing now, trend broken
ReplyDeleteOpp's, SPX jumped on the same side of the life boat - wobble. Now, a calm the nerves correction, back up to 7545 -7581. Then down, to retest ~7530, expecting failure to lead to target 7380-7303
ReplyDeletedow ATH, SPX recover all lost! r u sure there is a crash?
ReplyDeleteOk, now that everyone is calm post upward correction into the zone, its nearly time to test and break ~7530. The correction is good enough - Cake without the cherry
ReplyDeleteThe drop that will commence today from ~7580, will see SPX @ ~ -5% and will likely break the May 19 low (does not need to, but could), then reverse course and head north to 7448 to 7500 - "It's going to be alright" rally. Then, SPX will head south ~6500, it might even take out 31 March low. News at that point, pick your narrative and make it fit...
ReplyDeletewill it go back to 7800 based on ur chart?
Deletethe news : Japan's yen new low and bitcoin new low
DeleteMy earlier comment answers this best. "The Hormuz Waltz - The orchestra plays on. The water rises. The crowd asks for one more song" - The one more, now a -- has been.
DeleteAll hail Krasi
ReplyDeleteYes, absolutely, great work Krasi
DeleteUntil the next ath and everyone turns on him. 2.6 % drop and the sky is falling. Geez.
DeleteThis drop will determine if we are really in a bull market. If it gets bought back up in a few weeks bears have a long couple years ahead of them.
ReplyDeleteThat was easy to predict EW pattern, cycles, techical indicators all working like in the books - you just have to pay attention.
ReplyDeleteThe 20w cycle working like a clock, after the low now the high - next is a low around the end of July.
The pattern is weak final wave retraced for 3 days. It looks like 1-2-3 lower so some retracement and a low, then some correction higher and continuation https://invst.ly/1hxl26
Krasi - Could you please expand on this comment "The pattern is weak final wave retraced for 3 days" 1. What pattern are you referring to? You're saying the bear is weak because it didn't drop hard from the 1 June top? Not sure what you mean. Thanks
DeleteThe final wave higher is weak a wedge fully retraced, now lower the wave is strong and looks like an impulse 1-2-3.
Deletethe mobile version of blogspot is awful it is difficult to post.
Cheers Krasi. Appreciate it.
DeleteWatching the May 19 low. This wave likely penetrates it, but "should" stop (>80% Prob) as per prior comment. However the market moved up from the 31-March low, primarily driven by gamma squeeze - When the squeeze unwinds, if the "system" breaks in the process <20% probability, we could have a market event, similar to 2020 or 1987. If price hits 7171 in this move - the above odds flip, that's the "o dear" price signal. The latter is disruptive, hope it does not happen.
Delete10w low?
ReplyDelete