Oct 18, 2026
Update
The indices like SPXEW,DJ,NYSE,DAX declined to MA200 then retraced to MA50 and all this took 2 months or one 10w cycle. Next week the decline should continue.
NDX made higher high, was this the top of the pattern or just b-wave - difficult to say. At the end it does not matter this is important top expext decline for 9-12 months to test MA200 weekly.
P.S. as usual the "experts" showed up to nail the top.
I think we should see a few days higher for b/2
According to the short term cycles we should see a bounce for a few days.
If the SPX has the same cycle model like the other indices we have 10w cycle high after 18m high and this is the NDX again with perfect three cycles but 10w cycle difference.
80 days since July low, may be this is 10w low
ReplyDeleteNot very likely the other indices are at some kind of a top and for SPX I do not see some meaningful pattern low.
DeleteQuelle valeur actuellement la Ma200 hebdomadaire ?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/1kadr6 - simple technical analysis trend line, support and MA.
DeleteWhen the prices moves too far away from the MA/trend line it snaps back.
It happened already twice so nothing new.
There will be no recession until at least 2030. Specifically, I believe it will begin in the fourth quarter of 2031.
ReplyDeleteWrong, it started, 2027
DeleteEurope looks heavy. Du you think DAX will go higher than Friday's high?
ReplyDeleteI can not say... we have a zig-zag higher which was easy to guess, but a correction can change to more complex and the zig-zag is just part of complex pattern like flat.
DeleteThere is two highs mid-August and two weeks later - we saw a high on schedule two months later mid-October, but we should expect something two weeks later.
DAX made higher EU50 not... I do not know what to expect lower or higher high.
Short said the tools I use cycles and ES can not give an answer with high probability.
My feeling says lower high because price bounced already twice from MA200 and the third one should be weak before breaking below it.
Now there is more clarity - this is clear impulse lower and the "bullish case" is expanded flat correction and test of the high with another leg higher with the same size - https://invst.ly/1kamzt
DeleteOr the bearish case lower high for wave 2 correction higher.
What are the 4y highs of the 7y cycle? and when will be the next 4y low of the 7y cycle?
ReplyDeleteThe next 7y cycle high should be in 2028 - https://invst.ly/1kb60k
DeleteThe 4y cycle high was either short the 2024 high or extended with a high now. So far we have three cycles with the same length and the final one in 2028.
The 7y cycle low should be in 2029 - https://invst.ly/1kb62u
The 4y cycle has very interesting sequence short-short-long-long the last one was in 2025 and the next one should be in 2029.
Weekly closures will be key tomorrow. Currently looks like your weekend update is spot on. Cheers!
ReplyDelete