TRADING
Trading cycle - still buy signal. Really long cycle both high-to-high 46 days and low-to-low 34 days already. In theory rigth translated cycle is bullish and the next one should make higher high. For this to happen the decline phase should not brake below the support area. The low should be in the last August week.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - from the late June low looks like a-b-c with ugly middle section for b. Another zig-zag for either y or 3 of ED.
Not clear if this wave c is finished or not.... the last three days are difficult to count. RSI says impulse should be complete, but we need to see the price breaking the trend line. NDX will look perfect if we see one final high to complete and ED from the June lows - https://invst.ly/rtad1
Intermediate term - either a combination w-x-y or ED.
The ED - w2 retraced only 23% which is very suspicious, but if the support area around MA50 holds and we see overlap with another zig-zag it should be an ED.
If it is broken with high probability it is w-x-y and the 40w cycle turned lower. W=X+Y in time so it looks good despite the difference in size.
We have MACD and RSI now with short term and intermediate term divergence so we should see something lower and this lower will give us more information which pattern is running.
Long term - I think the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently watching the pattern below wave a or x, but with corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher expected.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - tricky possible 20d low, but where is the 20d high? You ca not have two 20d lows without 20d high somewhere between them. We are at 10w high and we should see two weeks lower for 10w low. Next week we should know where to put the 20d high and low.
Week 7 for the 20w cycle. More interesting is if we have 40w cycle high or not - we have to wait and see how the next leg develops.
MR. Copy & paste.
ReplyDeletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/08/even-steven.html?m=1
Why do you ridicule the study of cycles guy here and then thank him for all his great work on his blog, or is that another Krasi?
DeleteReally.... has he patent on diagonal pattern and no one else can use it? It is so difficult to come up with diagonal if we see 4 overlapping zig-zags that I have to copy it... if it is ED at all because this is not my primary count.
DeleteWhen I copy why I did not copied his previous version of LD nonsense?
What if it is w-x-y which I am counting from the beginning and your idol did not see it?
Why did not you show up at the all other occasions when I do not copy his wrong counts?
Why you show up at all when you have the "original"?
P.S. and there is difference between ED and LD his count, but you are just a stupid troll so thinking is not your strength anyway.
Simple - when I see nonsense I call it nonsense the previous version of his LD. When I see effort to put valuable information I say thank you.
DeleteAbove it is exaggerated for the troll.
I do not understand this comparison in the first place. Our counts are not completely identical, but you can not expect to be completely different.
Cheesy advert of a blog that not many ppl read
Deleteif a cycle is right translated, it is obligatory that the next one make a higher high?
ReplyDeleteI do not think it is obligatory, it just makes sense when the price moves 8 weeks up and declines only 2 weeks.
DeleteThe caveat this time it is already the third daily cycle from the 40w cycle and the price is not really moving much higher DJ/NYSE for example just testing the previous high.
As I wrote it is best to wait and see how the next two weeks will look like.
Can anyone comment on where UVXY is heading?
ReplyDeleteMore shallow decline 28-30, bigger decline to MA200(SP500) 35-40 area.
DeleteWhy not wave 3 of LD instead of ED?
ReplyDeleteShort said I do not believe in second leg similar in size to repeat after 2-3 months correction.
DeleteDoes not make much sense and it does not look likely to me.
The whole idea with this LD is that after 16-17 months corrective pattern you need B with comparable size and time. You have the size now time is needed and you have to count wave a impulsive pattern then b/B and c/B because you need time.
LD should be weak wave 1 or a and then the strong 3 or c should follow - how much stronger??
If you expect another 1200 points even faster for 2-3 months - this is your pattern.
I would rather count:
- ED for 5 from 2009 and synchronized top with the tech sector.
- w-x-y/A for a bigger corrective pattern like triangle or flat
- w-x-y/X for a combo and zig-zag lower Y with lower low next year 18m low - the whole flat W=X+Y in time
I think you have said that gold and sp going down both to 2024 in 9 years low, It is rare both fall together
ReplyDeleteYes, you have rotation stocks or commodities in secular bull market. This time the environment is different. You have the same trade everywhere - the USD is the driver or its shortage to be more precise.
DeleteIt is the same like 2008 - everything will go down and USD higher because the financial system will start falling apart.
Thanks Krasi. In your 1st chart, how do you come out with those support levels?
ReplyDelete- first one - support,MA50, 50% retracement. At this level w4 of diagonal should complete.
Delete- second one the last chance - support,62% retracement, w4 still shorter than w2 for diagonal. Below that it is over expect full retracement of the rally from the June low.
Krasi, how do you determine the proportion of waves (in terms of timing) for both impulse and corrective? What guidelines do you use?
ReplyDeleteI do not really understand the question... EW does not have timing component.
DeleteI am watching cycles for timing - usually the cycle low/high is when a pattern completes.
There is this Fibo measurements for time I do not find them useful. I do not think they work.
My guideline is the waves from one pattern should be comparable in time. I see many EW guys just pasting labels somewhere to make up waves to fit what they want to see... for example w1 is 1-2 bars you can not see it on the chart and w3 30-40 bars. I see so many such counts this is wrong for me.
Thanks. I'm asking because you're counting as ED now, whereas previously you don't think we've completed wave 4 in March because you mentioned C wave down is too short in duration. Can I say you're counting wave 4 completion in March now if the ED county plays out?
DeleteJust learning here like everyone else. Thanks.
If I see diagonal now I would rather count it as ED and wave 5 from 2009. I do not believe it is LD wave a for a much bigger correction higher. To be clear I do not believe we have a diagonal in the first place.
DeleteReally, you think we go up until October? This correction is over. There is huge divergence from Jun 8th high and this high. If we were in wave 3 of ED this move would be more impulsive. It looks less impulsive than May/early June. This is the top imo. Also, this formed a beautiful crab harmonic. I'm predicting 2800 on SPX by early Septemer.
ReplyDeleteNo, I do not think. This diagonal is suspicious as I wrote above.
DeleteMy primary scenario is correction completing w-x-y and lower to 3000 in two weeks.
Why the alternate pattern diagonal - because the last cycle moves 3/4 of the time higher and it is right translated, which usually means to expect higher high.
I think this is a trap and it lasted so long because we are seeing 40w cycle high. But still cautious and watching for confirmation.
Why would the next 40w low go deep and not like Q4'19 where its very shallow?
DeleteThe waves and patterns vary and do not repeat. The same B wave like the previous B wave makes no sense.
DeleteAll markets moving in tandem, the high correlation between the oil market and the indices continue. I see the same pattern - https://ibb.co/SccQCqJ
ReplyDeleteBrent oil because the pattern is better visible than crude oil but it is the same. W-X-Y and final push needed to complete ED 5/c/Y and 40w high at week 33.
By the way next week is major Bradley turn date.
I don't see this in the charts - "My primary scenario is correction completing w-x-y and lower to 3000 in two weeks". Which chart are you referring to?
ReplyDeleteNot explicitly stated, except in comments - the weekly chart watching for corrective pattern from the beginning.
DeleteWhat I think will happen is not what will happen, that is why explaining the options and letting the market show the path.
I dont understand why not 20 february 40w high, it is a very inportant high
ReplyDeleteHere is my logic:
Delete- 40w cycle needs 2x20w - I see late Jan and late March as lows.
- between two 20w lows there should be one 20w high(January). There si no two lows without a high.
- 20w cycle rally 19 weeks strong right translated and suddenly retraces the whole 18 month cycle makes no sense. Much more likely two 20w cycles
- other indices and assets made a top in January
Based on this logic my forecast was 20w high January, 20w low late January second 20w cycle will make a double top and fail - it played out. I do not see a reason that something is wrong.
Any thoughts on gold making a new low to confirm impulse? It's a full week since the first potential impulse
ReplyDeleteI do not see impulse and w4/5 this is separate move from the same degree.
DeleteDJ looks like triangle if you look at the intraday charts. This solves the problem with the short term cycles. As I wrote we need a top and decline into 20d low - we have it, but it is a triangle to test MA10 and not so well visible, for SP500 you can not see it all. The DJ cycle chart - https://invst.ly/rucuu
ReplyDeleteFrom pattern perspective after triangle we have final thrust sand reversal the same story with cycles we should see 1-2 days higher and 10 days lower for the last 20d cycle and 10w low.
What about the Nasdaq?
ReplyDeleteNATH this moment
Has the minimum now to complete a diagonal, which I am showing for a while - https://invst.ly/ruelj
DeleteThank you
ReplyDeleteDXY daily divergence building and everyone is short the dollar :)
ReplyDeleteI believe late July was the 20 week low from the March 23rd 40 week low. The next and final 20/40 week low should be late November / early December. I doubt we will revisit the March lows (although everything is possible) instead I think we retrace 61%+ of the move up before the next leg up into 2021. This retrace could be wave B of the fifth and final wave into a rising wedge formation (the leg up from last March would then be wave A of the final rising wedge). Comments always welcome. Thank you for all your work.
ReplyDeleteJP
This year is something like 50%-62% retracement possible. Test of the low is next year possible, but we have to see the pattern first. Corrective waves are difficult to predict 2-3 steps ahead.
DeleteCurrently I think this is X wave and we will see Y zig-zag lower, but for starter we should see confirmation that we have only corrective wave.
Krasi, if I am not wrong, in march you didn't predict the move lower will be so strong and in shorts time
ReplyDeleteNO, I did not.
DeleteCopper is making higher highs. How are you so sure this craziness will not continue?
ReplyDeleteWhy should I care about copper? I do not see correlation with the indices.
DeleteHi Krasi, What is your upside target for DXY in Nov assuming it reverses now?
ReplyDeleteI am not sure about the pattern so I can not give any useful targets.
DeleteATH in spx, what next?
ReplyDeleteATH in spx next
DeleteAnother zig-zag lower with lower low next year retracing the second "great rally".
DeleteSo you expect 2300 and then 3400 again?
ReplyDeleteI would say 2100 then 3400.
DeleteOne idea the middle section May/June/mid July is triangle and we have a-b-c - https://ibb.co/8jV1JJY
ReplyDeleteWorks with the majority of the indices and solves all the problems with cycles high-to-high and low-to low.
I like this count a lot! Lets see how it goes. Thank you
DeleteJP
Today maybe 10w low?
ReplyDeleteIt is posible
DeleteWhat the hell, was that B with a C starting tomorrow? NASDAQ is on crack
ReplyDeleteMaybe 4/c is completed and this is 5/c already.
DeleteKrasi,
Deletethe insanity of the bubble is making the model very skewed. Could you do an analysis of energy or financial index which appears in line with your predictions on the upcoming analysis?
Thanks and looking forward to your input.
- Kali
Other sectors were the reason why I suggested it in the first place this ugly thing. It fits with majority of the indices... even the tech sector and AAPL have their relevant lows in July.
DeleteI have looked at XOI and XLF good 20w cycle 16 weeks with two symmetrical 10w cycles - exactly the same as shown above. With this model SP500 has 4x5w cycles almost identical in length.
I do not known if this is valid EW pattern, but cycles says this is it.
the big 3 on Gold might be starting
ReplyDeletenot yet
DeleteThe financial and energy index is following this model perfectly. The S&P and Nasdaq is being pushed hard by the tech bubble. If you look at SPSIOP, you will see that the bearishness and the cycles are right on time.
ReplyDeleteCheers,
Kali
Even the most tech stocks are not participating any more - the AAPL and TSLA market:))
DeleteKrasi can you confirm yesterday 10w low?
ReplyDeleteI can not, I do not have the tools for that. I just rely on counting days.
DeleteBtw I am following new idea and this is 5w low probably completed we are late in the 20d cycle.
50 average goes doun, ander 200 in vix, good for long snp
ReplyDeleteAnd what about SP500 making new high and VIX higher low and divergence.
Delete