Weekly preview

Some selling, which is not a surprise, but messy pattern and no confirmation for reversal so far. I think the alternate patterns 4/X are dead and now there is a battle around the MAs:) the first dips will be bought - this is how topping works.

Waiting for further price action to confirm or not reversal. In both cases expect something bigger to the downside after another higher or lower high around the elections in the USA.

Glenn Neely - "War Of The Waves" the game is afoot:)
First we have to say the most EW guys have no clue what they are talking about. There is one orthodox EW guy I know counting corrective pattern from 2000(from 2009 is B wave) Peter Temple, but he sees the end of the world DJ from 30k to 3k mega wave c/4 in 2-3 years...
With so many corrective waves in the last few years I will not be surprised if Neely is rigth. This is not how major top and reversal looks like.


TRADING
Trading cycle - sell signal, the declining phase of the third daily cycle is running. It should not last very long, we have rigth translated cycle and 10w low is expected in the next 2 weeks.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - messy pattern, more price action is needed to make some conclusions. For now it looks like leg lower a/1 and sideways correction b/2. The decline does not look completed. The only way I see to construct impulse somehow is diagonal in white on the chart.

Intermediate term - so far finding support at MA50 as expected. Waiting to see confirmation or not for reversal. If Y is not completed probably more complex Y and this is b/Y

Long term - I think the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern flat/triangle or x wave. With corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded.
Two weeks in a row selling this happens for the first time since March and the indicators are showing that something is going on. Topping and transition into the down phase of the 40w cycle has begun.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing lower in sell mode.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - sell signal, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - cooling off as expected.
Advance-Decline Issues - the trend line connecting the lows has been broken and tested now we should see something lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this week should be 20d low as expected. Next week we should see a bounce higher for 20d high.

More about this tricky 20w low - I would say SP500 is the wrong place to watch for it. DJ shows more clearly the idea which I mentioned weeks ago low in mid July. I think the pattern low is on 10th of July trinagle X wave(important cycle lows are at pattern lows), you have 4x20d cycles instead of 3 nothing missing and 20w cycle with length 16 weeks consisting of two symetrical 10w cycles. This is waaaay better than counting a low end of June, which has none of this.
SP500 is wannabe NDX, but it is just a distorted version of DJ/NYSE. Even the NDX has a clear low on 24th of July for 20w cycle with length 18 weeks so a low in June is not very likely.

Week 9 for the second 20 cycle. The 40w high - something is going on RSI is breaking below the MA, but the price is still finding support at MA10. On the other side the sequence is 20w high - 20w low - 10w high(not 20w/40w) - 10w low, which means the 40w high is in two months. So still waiting for confirmation or not for a 40w high, which could be impulse lower or move below the previous 20w low.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Continue to work like a clock for three weeks in a row - setup completed last week and now we have the price flip.