Weekly review

Short term view - we should see a move lower next week
Intermediate term view - pullback after a short term top and another move higher.

Nothing new, just the charts updated. Now everything looks ready for a move lower - bearish candles, divergences histogram/RSI/slow stochastic on different indexes(best visible on Russell200), market breadth, cycles at day 31 from 40 day cycle, TomDemark countdown completed..... only a pullback next week is missing:)
Anyway I think the idea to take some profits this week was not a bad idea at all.

TECHNICAL PICTURE
Short term - the first move lower should find support around 2040 followed by a lower high and than lower again to at least 23,6% Fibo retracement.

Intermediate term - waiting for a short term top and to see how the move lower will look like. Targets for the pullback the previous high and MA50

Long term - the long term picture is unchanged.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - a lot of divergences.... long term indicators are still rising, but a pullback is due.
McClellan Oscillator - lower high and divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, but in overbought territory.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - buy signal... pullback overdue after hitting overbought levels.
Fear Indicator VIX - another higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high.
NYSE New Highs-New Lows - lower high and divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Day 31 of the current 40 day cycle. I think next week we should see a move lower.

Week 6 of the current 20 week and 40 week cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
The countdown is completed. Now if we see a move lower it will be perfect:)

EEM

Happy Thanksgiving to the readers in the USA:)

I was asked several times about EEM (emerging markets) and this index mirrors perfect what I think will happen in the long term so I have decided to post one chart.
From EW perspective the count is very clear in contrast with other markets. Clear 5 wave impulse from 12.2008 to 05.2011. Clear corrective structure for the last several years which needs last final plunge lower. After an impulse and correction another impulse higher should follow.

My thoughts for the long term - this bull market feels different... I do not think it is driven by "natural market forces". The bankers are not ready to give up. EEM DAX and Russell2000 hint that we should see one more leg lower. If we see another correction in Q1 next year the CBs will freak out again and I expect final blow off. Eventually natural forces will win but before that the market should become an "uncontrollable monster". I think we will see even more crazy staff to the upside before it is game over.

Expect veeery interesting 2015..... so enjoy the holidays for the rest of 2014 and prepare for the wild ride next year:)