Oct 1, 2014
Update
Is the reversal around the corner? See the daily chart from the weekly review - we are now at the trend line and support line with MACD divergence on the hourly chart. The forecast from yesterday is playing out so far. SP500 bounced exactly at the lower support line.
It is simple - the bears should move the price sharply lower through the support zone for wave 3. If they fail we will have a bottom.
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Carnap:
ReplyDeleteDecision is in place. Break of the black trend line on hourly chart and subsquent break of the 1946 level...
http://chartbuster.wordpress.com/about/spx-2/spx-w-40-2/
I am still not convinced:) I have not seen the market breadth, but it feels more like we are near to a bottom.
DeleteTomorrow we will see if we have a confirmation.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteIf tomorrow's ECB action and Friday's NFP are negative, SPX in deeper correction. If not a new high as you mentioned.
Thx
Exactly, tomorrow we should see a save from the bulls or something bigger to the downside has begun.
DeleteThat is why I was recommending all the time to hold a short positions.... if something goes wrong.
Carnap:
ReplyDeleteA negative surprise of ECB statements is not unlikely since bank rate will be not changed most probably and a statement for more structural political measures instead of further monetary stimulations could be affirmed.
Further more NFPs expectation at 218k seemed to me quite high.
The data itself are not important, FOMC,NFP are very often a short term top/bottom.
DeleteThe data is an excuse to move in some direction. The traders have their bias already. Exception is an event that no one has expected.
If the indexes turn now higher I am sure the media will find some "plausible reason" but I will know that the sellers are exhausted and we have have for example McClellan Oscillator divergences around oversold levels:)
Yes. I agree with you.
DeleteECB must start QE to keep this market going and I'm not seeing any other choice. Central Banks in a loop providing liquidity one after another will keep this market going for some time till 2016 , after which all markets exhaust.
ReplyDeleteThat's when great correction must be soon.Meantime, sudden reversal of 10year Yields should shake the market up for intermediate correction.
That's my take.
Thx
Yes intermediate term correction either has started or will start soon....
DeleteI am just trying to catch the short term moves and hold short for the case that an intermediate term correction has started.
Long term I do not think that the market will just revers.... we will have at least test of the highs, the Banks will try to save it
ECB failed to impress. This's correction now.
ReplyDeleteYes, we should see soon a short term bottom as I expect but followed by a lower high and another leg lower.
DeleteHi,
DeleteWhat could be the target for leg higher? Generally in bounces in SPX, are very sharp after huge correction, like X waves.
Thx
I have just posted a chart... if this is an impulse not much - retest of the break out 1950-1955.
DeleteIf it is a corrective move probably 1985.