Dec 14, 2025
Update
FOMC was a high as expected and the inidices turned lower on Friday. Intermediate term I expect up and down for a few weeks to form 10w high and low then the final high 40w/18m/4y right on schedule.
The big picture - I think we have the 40w low and now the final c-wave is running. The blow off the strong wave is behind us the second wave will be the weak wave, the topping.
Up and down... following the cycles it should look like as shown on the chart.
The bigger pichture a-b-c - the a-wave was the blow off and it is over now the c-wave the weaker one will be topping. Not sure at the moment how exactly it will look like diagonal,triangle,wedge something like this.
P.S. Of course the EW experts will count it as impulse and now 5 of 5.... cycles and inidcators does not confirm it.
Dec 6, 2025
Update
Now the move looks like impulse and you can see it bullish another leg up has started or bearish corrective pattern has been completed(SPXEW shows it more clear the charts below).
In both cases I think FOMC will be a high then lower before Christmas and higher for the holidays. The size of this moves will give us more clarity.
The last move up looks like impulse now and it could be 1 or c flat correction.
SPXEW bullish - wave 1/c after completed w-x-y/b.
What bothers me with the bullish case is if we have 40w low why did not we see fear - market breadth indicators just hovering in the middle of their ranges.
SPXEW bearish - flat correction completing x-wave with y/b to follow.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)




