Oct 11, 2025
Update
Who could have seen this coming.... wait EW and cycles... no they do not work.
There were warning signs for weeks everywhere you look - wedging pattern, mature cycles, technical analysis divergences, market breadth divergences and probably every other tool used to analyze the market.
Only the arrogant sheeple did not see it coming and now hold the bag as usual - one day wiped out one month.
Intermediate term - such big candles are the start or the end of a move - in this case the start. What is starting? - decline into 40w low until the second half of November... at least.
Long term - The first two charts show the two possible scenarios... I think it will be the more bullish one, somehow pattern and cycles feel better.
Preffered scenario.... 4y cycle low at the right time and place the b-wave and you can count almost perfect 3x18m cycle highs for 4y high and the pattern counts better.
Bearish one possible.... only wave 2 does not feel deep enough there is nothing else to say, 4y cycle low at the same place, 4y cycle high 45 month long perfect average. The hint, which scenario is more likely, is maybe to look other indices for example RUT feels unfinished and needs one more down up for the same pattern like above.
Short term - Wedging pattern for weeks, the count has been completed and sharp reversal - what a surprise.
Intermediate term - Minimum target is support and MA200 retracing the wedge. This is not even 38% retracement.... if the bullish scenario from above plays out expect 62% retracement to around 5600.
GOLD long term - blue lines are 16y cycle highs and red lines are 16y cycle lows. Gold is close to 16y high with pattern expanding wedge. You can see history what happens - 4-5 years lower for 16y cycle low and cut in a half. Maybe this time is different.... no it is not.
The current 16y high divides better in three longer cycles instead of 4x4y cycles.
P.S do not expect to plunge tomorrow it could take another year topping - see 1980-1981 first blue line.
Bitcoin 4y cycle highs and lows. BTC is at 4y cycle high and decline into 4y cycle low will follow. Support is in the 15k-35k area. If history repeats 80% decline is 25k which is in the middle of the support area.
P.S. BTC and stock indices have very high correlation another red flag to expect decline for the indices.
Oct 4, 2025
Update
The impulse from last week was most like third wave and this week the fifth wave. I see the pattern shown below all this with RSI/MACD divergence, market breadth divergence and at week 33 from the previous important high.
Short term v/5/c is possible, for example the DAX will look better with one more high.
Intermediate term - the same like last week expect intermediate term high and decline into November.
Long term I explained many times it could be 4y high.
NDX I see two impulses and it is confirmed by RSI.
DJ the same even more clear.
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