Oct 11, 2025
Update
Who could have seen this coming.... wait EW and cycles... no they do not work.
There were warning signs for weeks everywhere you look - wedging pattern, mature cycles, technical analysis divergences, market breadth divergences and probably every other tool used to analyze the market.
Only the arrogant sheeple did not see it coming and now hold the bag as usual - one day wiped out one month.
Intermediate term - such big candles are the start or the end of a move - in this case the start. What is starting? - decline into 40w low until the second half of November... at least.
Long term - The first two charts show the two possible scenarios... I think it will be the more bullish one, somehow pattern and cycles feel better.
Preffered scenario.... 4y cycle low at the right time and place the b-wave and you can count almost perfect 3x18m cycle highs for 4y high and the pattern counts better.
Bearish one possible.... only wave 2 does not feel deep enough there is nothing else to say, 4y cycle low at the same place, 4y cycle high 45 month long perfect average. The hint, which scenario is more likely, is maybe to look other indices for example RUT feels unfinished and needs one more down up for the same pattern like above.
Short term - Wedging pattern for weeks, the count has been completed and sharp reversal - what a surprise.
Intermediate term - Minimum target is support and MA200 retracing the wedge. This is not even 38% retracement.... if the bullish scenario from above plays out expect 62% retracement to around 5600.
GOLD long term - blue lines are 16y cycle highs and red lines are 16y cycle lows. Gold is close to 16y high with pattern expanding wedge. You can see history what happens - 4-5 years lower for 16y cycle low and cut in a half. Maybe this time is different.... no it is not.
The current 16y high divides better in three longer cycles instead of 4x4y cycles.
P.S do not expect to plunge tomorrow it could take another year topping - see 1980-1981 first blue line.
Bitcoin 4y cycle highs and lows. BTC is at 4y cycle high and decline into 4y cycle low will follow. Support is in the 15k-35k area. If history repeats 80% decline is 25k which is in the middle of the support area.
P.S. BTC and stock indices have very high correlation another red flag to expect decline for the indices.
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Can you give me an analysis of the Italian FTSEMIB index? What do you expect it to achieve with the next drop?
ReplyDeleteI see this - https://invst.ly/1cpm5f
DeleteMajor top, alternate one more down to MA200 and up - the green.
Do you think its reasonable to expect a 20% drop in DAX as well going into second half of Nov or perhaps early 2026?
DeleteI am watching the trend line connecting the last three lows which is around 14% lower.
Deletekrasi, if I dint see wrongly, did u show the spx will go up to 8000 after this crash?
ReplyDeleteThe trend line for such ending diagonal on the SP500 for march 2026 is at 7100
DeleteThis is SPX equally weighted.
Added gold chart
ReplyDeleteQuels sont les cycles du pétrole ?
ReplyDeleteBaisse vers quel niveau ?
Après la baisse y aura t il un plus haut ?
More research is needed Crude oil does not follow Hurst cycles. I see 11 year cycle consisting of three 3.5-4 years long cycles, something like that - https://invst.ly/1cps28
DeleteMajor low sometimes in 2031-2032 as expected when the commodities super cycles should begin.
This one is interesting - https://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2016/08/crude-oil-and-34-year-commodity-cycle.html
DeleteBut what is the 4y cycle low?, I don´t see it. 2022 or 2023? and what are the previous and the next ?
ReplyDeleteSee the 7y and the 9y cycle charts and the last one - https://practicaltechnicalanalysis.blogspot.com/2025/09/update-and-long-term-view.html
DeleteBonjour
ReplyDeleteQuelle vision long terme sur le pétrole ?
See above
Deletewhy going higher in march 2026? should we crash to 4000-5000 range? higher some more? wtf!
ReplyDeleteBecause cycles say so. Again crashes occur at the end not at beginning.
Deleteno. I recall your previous charts shows the end of the cycle, everything is going down. why now turn up again? if thats the case, I could have DCA all along and still get tons of gains. so is this the end or going even higher forever?
DeleteHave you seen the two charts above? Do you notice that one scenario is bearish?
DeleteMay be it is 10w low if we put 20w low 2th September instead July
ReplyDeleteI would say one more leg lower than 10w low.
DeleteFirst you have to see the break of 6100-6000, it's a nice pivot point
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi, currently the Italian FTSEMIB is just above the 42,000 index, the high in October 2025 was 43,700 and in March 2020 it was at 14,000, what minimum would you expect for the restart of the next annual?
ReplyDeleteAround 25000 is strong support there is 4 peaks there.
DeleteKrasi, due to the current buy-every-dip mania in the equity markets today, should we anticipate/expect a "throw over" of the ED trendline shown in your charts for the completion terminus of the fifth wave? Thanks much.
ReplyDeleteSecond chart - no. First chart too early to say
DeleteAdded BTC cycle chart
ReplyDeleteThe sell off that nearly every technical analyst been calling for months now over after 6 hours?
ReplyDeletepoor sheeple down less than 1% after months, years of massive gains, poor sheeple
Delete@Anonymous1 - no, it is just getting started
Delete@Anonymous2 - dumb as usual, proud bag holder.
i agree markets will fall as you have described, but best not be a rooster one day, as feather duster the next. I am short this market since start of oct
DeleteIt better continue down around these levels. Otherwise last Friday might have been the Q4 trap which could easily send ES to 7000
ReplyDeleteThe leg from the April low is completed.... it is over.
Delete