Apr 25, 2026
Update
The short term pattern seems to play out - waves 4 and 5. The question is how long it will take before turning lower - from time perspective another 2-3 weeks will look better. Market breadth with long term double divergences, needs some time to turn lower and maybe short term divergences.
It looks like wave 4 and 5 playing out.
Possible patterns - wedging impulse or double zig-zag with Y the same size and mirror image of W.
Some thoughts about cycles..... when a cycle of the same degree makes a lower low it means the cycle of one higher degree turned lower.
Example - after a 40w low in November last year we have a lower low in March this year which means the 18m turned lower, but instead of a pause and continuation into July we see sharp move up. This should not happen and it is extremely rare.
But if you go back to 2020 where the current 9y cycle begun... do you notice something? We have a sequences of 2.5 years consisting of one 18m and one 12m(40w+20w) cycle. Back then I was expecting 4y cycle low in 2023 which did not occur.
If you assume the 7y cycle does not follow the theory and instead of 2x3.5y consists of 3x2.5y cycles the anomaly explained above sudenly is perfectly normal. It think this is what is happening, which means to expect 4y cycle high followed by 18m cycle low late 2027 for 7y cycle low.
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Are you still waiting the 18 months cycle low below 6300 for the summer?
ReplyDeleteYes, but looking the last chart most likely this will be just a low on the way lower and not a major 18m low.
DeleteDo you mean around 6000 in summer and after new ath?
DeleteNo, the important low expected in the summer is behind us, next is important high - 4y high and decline into 4y low. No more higher highs this is the last one.
Delete4y low late 2027?
DeleteYes, October 2027.
DeleteIn which indicator do you see market breadth with long term double divergences?
ReplyDeleteMcClellan Summation Index - triple divergence
DeleteBullish Percentage/Percent of Stocks above MA50 - double divergence and could not reach overbought level
So the 4y high will be in June?
ReplyDeleteProbably the second half of May
DeleteDJT with perfect pattern and cycle - https://invst.ly/1gywz7
ReplyDeleteInteresting if you apply this pattern to SPXEW you have running correction and perfect Fibo measurements - https://invst.ly/1gyx3l
DeleteDjt down 16 percent in 4 days - should we be expecting something like this on the spx?
DeleteI can not say, but for a month will not be a surprise.
DeleteIs it also 9y high?
ReplyDeleteProbably yes the previous high was in 2018
DeleteCAC40 and DAX have been relatively weak lately compared to US markets. Perhaps they peaked already.
ReplyDeleteIt still makes more sense if we see one final 5w cycle high to complete 20w cycle high even if it is a lower high.
DeleteHow to fit this 7y cycle(3x2.5y) with the 9y cycle that you have also mentioned in previous posts?
ReplyDeleteThe middle of the second 4y cycle of the 9y cycle.
DeleteA chart with these cycles and its forecasts from 2028 onwards would be very useful :)
DeleteShort term something like that:
ReplyDeleteDJ - https://invst.ly/1h0615
SPX - https://invst.ly/1h0621
Indices like DJ/DAX made the expected 5w bottom. The pattern shown yesterday(DJ) played out.
ReplyDeleteSPX still could surprise with something like this - https://invst.ly/1h19dl
Spy new ATH, with divergence, don't you think itfinish?
ReplyDeleteA few more days for completed pattern like this - https://invst.ly/1h1g0l
DeleteDon't you think it's inverted hammer?
ReplyDeleteDXY very high for late 2027? Any target?
ReplyDelete