Weekly Preview

Short term view - bigger pullback is expected.
Intermediate term view - after a pullback one more high followed by a correction for 2-3 months.

Nothing happened this week. The analysis stays the same like the previous week - waiting for a bigger pullback and one more higher higher then a correction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the move looks like sideway move one final high could be squeezed.

Intermediate term - waiting for a higher high and divergences.

Long term - no change, there is more to the upside then we will see which pattern is playing out.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - some signs of a short term top. Triple divergences on some indicators, which means intermediate term top is not far away.
McClellan Oscillator - making lower highs, divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - waiting for a sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - expecting divergence and short term top.
Fear Indicator VIX - low levels again and complacency.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Day 34 of the 40 day cycle. It is time for a pullback.

Week 7 of the 20 week cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Finished combo/countdown on the daily chart and week 7 of a sell setup on the weekly chart. When it is finished we will have 9-13-9 sequence on the weekly chart and we should see intermediate term top.

Weekly preview

Short term view - toping has started a bigger pullback is expected.
Intermediate term view - after a pullback one more high is expected followed by a correction for 2-3 months.

The move from November is now too long... it force you to count an impulse currently in iii of 3 as the most obvious count. But is weird Bullish Percentage and Percent of Stocks above MA50 are making double divergence, MACD and the histogram with divergences on the weekly chart and all this in iii of 3 when the move should be the strongest????? Very strange, usually you see such thing around intermediate term tops.

Looking at the price behavior, the indicators and other indexes there is high probability that we will see one more high around late January so no need to guess the pattern. There is time to exit longs and enter shorts no need to hurry.
I am not comfortable with this count, but I will just follow the market. I have switched to the bullish count and I will keep an eye on some alternative patterns.

In the previous post you can see this bullish count and some alternative patterns for most of the US indexes.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it is possible the wave to extend with one more wave higher, iii of 3 always look like they will never end. It depends on what will happen on Monday/Tuesday if the trend line is broken or not. If the trend line holds one more "christmas rally", if not the "christmas rally" will be just a retracement to test the broken trend line.

Intermediate term - the bullish pattern is shown on the chart. The histogram with divergences pointing to a move lower, MACD still has not turned lower. This translates to a move lower, but one more high before a bigger move lower.

Long term - switched to the impulse pattern. This is either the end of the bull market V(red) or the top of wave III(green) and we will see one final mania phase in 2018.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - looking at the indicators I see that the indexes are nearing a intermediate term top, but there is no reversal signs. We need a few more weeks to see toping process and the indicators to start reversing. You do not short vertical move higher you are waiting for a test of the top with divergence or lower high.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero, a trough is expected than one more peak with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but big divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, reached oversold levels.
Bullish Percentage - double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - double divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - look like it is bottoming.
Advance-Decline Issues - a lot of weakness compared to price.
Percent of Stocks above MA200 - another red flag huge divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Day 29 of the 40 cycle. It is time the indexes to turn lower for a 40 day cycle low.

Week 6 of the 20 week cycle

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Countdown and combo have been finished this week as expected. Now we have a green light for a pullback:)

The weekly chart - we have sell setup at 6 one more high to finish it in January looks good.

US indexes intermediate term

The pattern for SP500 is not very clear so I went through all US indexes which I know and think are important:)
I would say the bullish case prevails. I wrote that I expect one more higher high with divergences, but it is more likely that this will finish wave 3 and the very long corrective wave from July to November disguised bullish move. The plan has not changed just the move lower into April could be smaller than expected.

- For the bullish case we should see one more higher high then lower into April wave 4 and 18 month cycle low.
- For the bearish case there is a lot of "if". Even than do not expect reversal and plunge lower so no need to rush with shorts.


Russell2000 the bullish case looks better, the bearish is possible, but first we need to see an impulse lower and lower high.

DJ transportation looks bullish. Sideway move into April will allow the MA200 to catch up with price.

Financial sector needs one more high.... or it is even more bullish and we have zig-zag from 2015 not a triangle than this is 3 like nall other indexes.

DJ industrial the strongest from the major indexes the bullish count looks better.

The indexes with not so clear pattern:
Nasdaq - the next high should be important high no matter bullish/bearish case. The tech sector looks weaker.

SP500 weaker than DJ and wave 3 is not so well visible. Alternate scenario is double zig-zag W-X-Y but it does not really fit in the big picture.

NYSE the weakest index. It depends on if we will see a overlap or not than we will know which scenario is running.

Weekly preview

Short term view - short term top and pullback expected.
Intermediate term view - we should see topping for a few weeks followed by a move lower for several months.

Short term the market choose the move higher which I have shown last week. Despite all the "strength" this move does not look good. This is not a sustainable path, market breadth looks poor, the weekly indicators showing divergences.

Short term - this leg is near its end. I think toping should start next week and the top should be retested later - then we watch for a higher high with divergence or lower high. I do not expect a sell off in December.
Intermediate term - it is either crappy wave 1 of V or wave 5 of III(no idea how to count is as an impulse except ugly diagonal) or the indexes are still in wave IV and this is B of it.
Other options with lower probability - wave 1 of ED for V, this is the final top wave V of the bull market or this is wave 3 of V higher is running.

So thank you for the shitty analysis and that crap EW:))) Not so fast - focus on trading not analysis. Instead of trying to guess the pattern it is better to look at the message and it is in 5 of 6 cases expect serious move lower and one bullish scenario just because the market has two directions and for which I do not see any evidence.
Add to this that we have indicators with divergences on the weekly chart and market breadth with triple divergences what you want to see around important top. So what are the odds that after a top we will see a move lower for months and 10% correction?


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks to me like finished 5 waves from the bottom.

Intermediate term - vertical move this is not sustainable the indexes are heading for important top. They will not just reverse and plunge, the top will be tested then a move lower for a few months should begin.

Long term - I switched to SP500 chart for a consistent view. I think we will see a deep correction then the final mania phase of the bull market.
Many patterns one outcome correction and then higher - wave 5 of III(red), B of IV(green), 1 of V(yellow).

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - too weak with divergences for such "powerful" move. I think the indexes are headed for an important top.
McClellan Oscillator - second top and turned lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, long term divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, long term divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - buy signal, long term divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak could not move to overbought territory.


HURST CYCLES
Day 24 of the 40 day cycle.

Week 5 of the 20 week cycle. I think in a few weeks we should see a 20 week/40 week/18 month cycle top.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Combo at 12 and countdown at 11. Next week they should be finished.

Indexes which look like a diagonal NASDAQ and DAX not like the crap SP500:)

Weekly preview

Short term view - decision time for the two patterns so I do not know just waiting.
Intermediate term view - one more higher high expected before intermediate term top.

Small pullback as expected.... now waiting to see which scenario will play out - the pullback bottoms soon and makes one more higher high with divergences(wedge from the February bottom) or it moves another 30-40 points lower and than makes a higher high for a wedge from the June bottom. Now it is decision time because in the next 1-2 weeks the two patterns should move in different directions the first making final high around FOMC 14.12 the other making a low around FOMC followed by the final rally.

All this is short term play, intermediate term I think the next high whenever it comes will be the high for the move from the February low and a correction for 2-3 months should follow.
The same picture for Bonds,USD and precious metals - they all look like corrective pullback is running, one final low/high is expected than trend reversal for 2-3 months. So all markets suggest the same - waiting for a few weeks, than the trade should reverse for 2-3 months from "risk on"(stocks) to "risk off"(bonds and PM).


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - so far we have a small pullback heading for 20 day cycle low and the oscillators resetting on the daily chart. It is difficult to say which way the market will move. There is enough arguments for both patterns.

Intermediate term - the two scenarios how they should look like. Wedge from the February low(green) and A-B-C with a wedge for C from the June bottom(white).

Long term - no change, waiting for the final top and correction for 2-3 months.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - very weak for indexes which are making ATHs. This is what we want to see - the indicators resetting from oversold levels, but divergences and important top in a few weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - around the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - building multiple divergences for the next important top.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Heading lower for 20 day cycle after that we should see a higher high and the top of the 40 day cycle.

Week four of the next 20 week cycle. I think in a few weeks we should see a 20 week/40 week/18 month cycle top.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
After a combo finished at the previous top now we have finished countdown on the weekly chart too. Waiting for a price flip to signal a reversal lower.

Weekly preview

Short term view - topping to start and a pullback lower.
Intermediate term view - a few more weeks before we can think of a top.

Nothing new just the charts updated. If this is a wedge from the February low a top should be imminent. Looking at the technical indicators and market breadth I do not see such outcome at the moment. So either the topping will continue for several weeks or it is the pattern which I am following - a wedge but from the June low.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the move from the November low looks like A-B-C to me.

Intermediate term - the two scenarios. Red is a wedge from the February low and this should be the last wave 5.

Long term - no change.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - is resetting higher, but it is visibly much weaker. Expect divergences and important top... but there is a few more weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - well above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - nearing the upper range.
Fear Indicator VIX - building multiple divergences for the next important top.
Advance-Decline Issues - nearing the upper range.


HURST CYCLES
Day 14 from the 40 day cycle. At least a pullback for 20 day cycle low is expected.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
The move is strong enough not to expect sudden reversal. We have finished setup and countdown is running.

Silver - the same pattern as Gold. We have 5 waves lower which means the correction which begun is not finished. There is two options - this is wave A and we should expect B and C(red) or we need 7 waves for finished corrective move double zig-zag W-X-Y(green). I thought the USD is still in the triangle in this case A-B-C(red) was looking great... now not so much.
In both cases bounce higher is expected because from the November top we have 5 waves lower with divergence followed by one more lower low. I can not see a finished pattern at the moment.
MA50/MA200 are resistance now. If the bounce higher hit them with a zig-zag than watch the green scenario. If the bounce hit them with an impulse than watch the red scenario.

Update

SP500 is catching up making new highs after DJ and RUT already made new highs. The pause which I was expecting is behind us and this high is the one with the red arrow from the daily chart. Reaching it so fast makes my preferred scenario one more high more probable.
Two different Fibo measurements point to a top around 2207-2208:) curious if will see a top today or tomorrow at this level.

Strong wave A and weak wave C with divergences

I do not expect sudden reversal and a plunge lower. MA20/MA50/MA200 starting to converge. Any move lower should bounce from the MAs and than we watch lower high or last marginal higher high. Patience no need to hurry.

Weekly preview

Short term view - small pullback is expected.
Intermediate term view - a few more weeks higher before we can think of a top.

The indexes moved a few points higher SP500 17 points DJIA 20 points... nothing so interesting, but nothing is information too:)

First 7 trading days after the huge bar the indexes are doing practically nothing so forget about iii of 3 to the moon. This is not price action in iii of 3, you should see a pause one day max two before the indexes blasting higher and this is not happening.
Second SPX500 managed to squeeze 5 waves higher and finished TomDemark setup higher. This means the move is strong enough and not to expect sudden reversal and plunge lower.
This confirms the two possible scenarios wedge or huge zig-zag from the February low.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the move looks tired so I expect a pullback to support and MA200 around 2145.

Intermediate term - the two options which make sense. Patience the market will reveal it's intentions. The indicators are pointing higher no signs to expect sudden reversal.
Pullback to MA20 and MA50 looks probable.

Long term - the indicators are pointing higher. It will last a few weeks before we see a top with divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - moving higher, but the strength is missing... this is what we expect to see.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero, but not really strong.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up from oversold level.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - around the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - building multiple divergences for the next important top.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading higher.


HURST CYCLES
Day 10 of the 40 day cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Sell setup finished the market has enough strength despite only crawling slowly higher.... there is no sellers at the moment.

DAX - this is a nice looking wedge not like the US indexes:) The same message pullback and one more higher high will look great.

And TNA as a proxy for RUT - either finished impulse from February or more complex expanding wedge. At the end similar picture like the major US indexes.

Update

We have now five waves from the low and 5 waves for the fifth wave with divergences. It is time for a pullback. Target MA200 and the congestion zone around 2145.

We have 5 waves higher for the RUT too hitting the upper trend line. MACD and RSI vertically higher and far above MA50. This means to expect pullback, but no plunge lower. The high should be tested
Similar to the major indexes there is too options - simple impulse from February(red) or it is a little bit ugly expanding wedge(green). When we see the move lower we will know - if it is an impulse expect lower high(red), if it is a corrective move expect zig-zag for a wedge (green).