Mar 28, 2026
Update
The alternate scenario is playing out - impulse lower. If you look at NYSE/DJ/SPXEW show pretty clean impulse and a few more days are needed to complete the pattern. From price perspective the price is between 23%-38% Fibo retracement and between two support levels... the next support level is 200-250 points lower.
If you look the short term cycles we are at day 5 for the 20d cycle so minimum 2 days more likely 3-4 days to be completed. The longer term cycles - week 18 so close to 20w low. Market breadth is showing divergences.
Short said whatch for a low around Thursday next week worst case 200-250 points lower.
Choppy impulse - probable count similar to NYSE/DJ/SPXEW
Techical analysis does not look good - price moved below support and MA200 and next support and 38% fibo is 200 points lower. Overall we know it is a bearish setup because there is more to the downside at least until July.
DAX is close to major trend line from the 2022 low
EUR/USD needs one final push lower for perfect impulse too.
Mar 21, 2026
Update
The November low has been reached as expected, this happens at week 17(average for the 20w cycle is 16-18) the previous two were 16 weeks long, there is possible completed pattern, market breadth is oversold but no divergences - possible bottom but not important one.
SPXEW/DJ/NYSE are showing some sort of impulse lower too...there is room for interpretation and say this is the third wave with 4 and 5 to follow. In this case the third wave is extended so the fifth wave will make just sligthly lower low and will not take much time.
This is the situation - it fits with my expectations for 20w low and bounce higher in April. If this is not the 20w low expect it in the first week of April.
I see corrective mess - flat-Xwave-double zig-zag. Alternate this is shomehow ugly impulse with two more shallow waves for 20w low.
From pure technical analysis point of view it looks like H&S - next is the right shoulder and target for the pattern around 6000
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