Nothing new the market looks tired, since the start of March every pop is met with quick sell off - it looks like distribution. The pattern is very choppy and short term looks like completed wave c/y/Y alternate triangle top around FOMC.
Week 33 high to high in the 32-36 range for 40w high, very weak market breadth, divergences - classical top.
The 40w cycles are back to their average length so in this case next is decline into 40w cycle low first half of June and higher for 40w cycle high around the elections in November.
TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, extended cycles 50+ days.
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower - waiting for confirmation next week.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - very complex and choppy pattern completed c/y/Y or triangle.
Intermediate term - two double zig-zags for w-x-y at two Fibo targets. Close below the trend line and MA10, RSI breaking lower - very high probability that we have turn lower.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - very weak, divergencies, turned lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - above 70, divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence and turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple higher lows.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - very likely 20d high to complete 5w/10w high, alternate third 20d cycle high around FOMC.
The highs look like three extended 10w cycles for 40w cycle high.
The lows - no clear 20w low, vusualy probably three extended 10w cycles like the highs. Trying to stick to the theory 20w low in February at week 16 or another extended cycle.
Week 20 for the 40w cycle. Probably 40w cycle consisting of three extended 10w cycles, but if I have to pinpoint 20w low it should be at week 16.
Week 33 high-to-high, at the top of at least 40w cycle... and very likely 18m cycle high too.
Average length for the 40w cycle is 32-36 weeks the last 40w low was 33 weeks long and now the high is 33 weeks long maybe the market is back to normal rhythm after shorter cycles from mid-2022 to mid-2023. In this case next important low is in June and next important high in November.
Mar 16, 2024
Mar 9, 2024
Weekly preview
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower - waiting for confirmation next week.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - looks like corrective w-x-y with plenty of zig-zags... difficult to see impulse.
Intermediate term - two double zig-zags for w-x-y at two Fibo targets. This should be the top of corrective B-wave and C-wave for a flat should follow. Alternate this is a-b-c from the 2020 low and the top from 2009.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower, alternate this is the top from 2009.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero, multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - very weak buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - choppy moves makes it difficult to count shorter cycles. The highs look like three extended 10w cycles, 5w cycle high in the middle and three 20d cycles to complete 5w/10w/40w cycle high.
The lows - sticking to the theory 20w low in February, but vusualy probably three extended 10w cycles too.
Week 19 for the 40w cycle. Probably 40w cycle consisting of three extended 10w cycles, but if I have to pinpoint 20w low it should be at week 16.
Week 32 high-to-high, at the top of at least 40w cycle... and very likely 18m cycle high too.
Average length for the 40w cycle is 32-36 weeks the last 40w low was 33 weeks long and now the high is 32 weeks long maybe the market is back to normal rhythm after shorter cycles from mid-2022 to mid-2023.
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