Apr 10, 2021

Weekly preview

This week price and time targets has been met - from the March low we have two legs up with the same length 23 weeks and Fibo measurement 68% between them. According to my analysis this is the top for this move and 18 month cycle high.


TRADING
Trading cycle - buy signal. At day 37 the cycle is right in the middle of the time window for a 10w high.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - now we have two legs up with the same size and length 10-11 days.


Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow) with C as a diametric.
Interesting is the last three moves up have the same length 10-11 trading days.... lets see what follows lower - according to my analysis this is the top for the move from the March low.


Long term - the move from March 2020 is close to completion. After the high expect 8-9 weeks lower and we will watch how big the decline will be.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are split the McClellan indicators are pointing to a top the others rather one more high because usually we have some sort of short term divergence.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero, multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but very weak.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - buy signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - made new low.
Advance-Decline Issues - nearing overbought level, lower high so far.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - from the last high we have three weeks already so this is 5w high not just 20d.
DJ showing it more clearly - symmetrical 10w and 5w cycles completing 20w/18m high on Friday or Monday.
To extend the pattern you will need to shift the cycles to the right and add another 5w cycle high... this feels forced and does not look naturally.


Week 10 for the 20w cycle. With this week the two legs up have the same length 23 weeks. From the last 18m high the two 40w cycle highs are now equal 32 weeks long. This should be the next 18m cycle high.

Apr 3, 2021

Weekly preview

Higher as expected - another day or two are possible, maybe DJ needs to catch up with a new high, but overall the analysis I follow reached the end of the road. Waiting to see next week if it is confirmed or not.

If I have to guess what else could it be I would say one more 20d cycle high and ED for c/C/Y(see the daily chart)


TRADING
Trading cycle - buy signal. Entered the time window for 10w high. The next MA10 cross should mean we have 10w high and turn lower into the next 10w low.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - from the last low we have double zig-zag a-wave and simple zig-zag c-wave with c=0,618xa.
Lately double zig-zags are market's favorite pattern so it could decide to go for it and c=a in the next few trading days.


Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow).
MACD and and RSI with double divergences, waiting to see what happens next week.
With all this zig-zags is very difficult to make pattern analysis, one way to extend it another 2 weeks and still making some sense is this ED for c/C/Y.


Long term - the move from March 2020 is close to completion. After the high expect 8-10 weeks lower and we will watch how big the decline will be.
All indicators with divergences an RSI just hit the the cross point of the trend lines after a break and test of the rising trend line.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same only VIX plunged this week... hmm I do not know how to interpret this - VIX against all the others. The other indicators behave as it should be, even another volatility indicator I follow. Some one posted it somewhere I do not remember, but it is useful to find extremes and divergences - it behaves as it should at a top.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with multiple divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - weak still sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - neutral.
Bullish Percentage - above 70, multiple divergence so far.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - above 75, multiple divergence so far.
Fear Indicator VIX - made lower low, this is not the usual behavior at tops?!?!
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range, multiple divergence so far.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 11 days this should be 20d high and if my count is right 18 month high. If not expect one more 20d cycle high to complete the 18m cycle high.


Week 9 for the 20 week cycle. The 40w cycle high is now 31 weeks long and it is mature. The average length for the 40 week cycle lows is 32-36 weeks and the highs are running shorter so we are in the timing band for a high.