Apr 3, 2026

Update

Slightly lower to complete the pattern and reversal. I think we saw the expected 20w low with cycle length 18 weeks.

Most likely a high next week for a 20d high folowed by a pullback for 20d low.
Projecting the cycles we should see the following path for the next two months and the expectd 20w high.

Mar 28, 2026

Update

The alternate scenario is playing out - impulse lower. If you look at NYSE/DJ/SPXEW show pretty clean impulse and a few more days are needed to complete the pattern. From price perspective the price is between 23%-38% Fibo retracement and between two support levels... the next support level is 200-250 points lower.
If you look the short term cycles we are at day 5 for the 20d cycle so minimum 2 days more likely 3-4 days to be completed. The longer term cycles - week 18 so close to 20w low. Market breadth is showing divergences.
Short said whatch for a low around Thursday next week worst case 200-250 points lower.

Choppy impulse - probable count similar to NYSE/DJ/SPXEW


Techical analysis does not look good - price moved below support and MA200 and next support and 38% fibo is 200 points lower. Overall we know it is a bearish setup because there is more to the downside at least until July.


DAX is close to major trend line from the 2022 low

EUR/USD needs one final push lower for perfect impulse too.