May 16, 2026
Update
In March the expectation was for a move higher into mid-May or later then decline into 18m low in July. Now we have the move up into mid-May but different than expected. Instead of retrace and letting it bleed into July we see double down on greed. The result - now it is 100% it is GAME OVER.
Market breadrth - awful for months, double and tripple divergences long term. Indicators with divergences monthly and weekly.
Cycles - 18m high, 4y high, 20w high... could last another week if we are lucky.
Pattern - from 2020 some see completed impulse, I see a-b-c. Most bullish this is the top of wave-3 expect 20% or more correction and final fifth wave - I highly doubt it.
Short term the only "positive" signs - RSI was overbought and just turned lower so maybe we need to see divergence and other indices like NYSE,SPXEW,DAX made a 5w low the end of April and afrter that we have one zig-zag up and down... it does not feel like completed pattern. There is two possiblities - triangle or flat, triangle will take too much time so more likely flat.This could give us another week, week and a half for the pattern and the 20w high to be completed.... or it just continues lower who knows.
If it is impulse it is done - ther trend line is broken and we have ugly daily and weekly cnadles. There is a chance watching other indices that it is complex pattern and there is a flat to be completed testing the trend line and double top before turning lower for a long time.
Pattern - minimum decline 20% to 6000 for wave-4. I do not buy this, it is over.
Short term cycles - turned lower exacly at the day... if we are lucky there is one more week.
Long term cycles - 18m and 4y cycle highs.
May 10, 2026
Update
The impulse playing out as expected - DJ looks like ED,NDX/SPX with normal impulse.
Pattern and cycles are in the late stages... next week should be game over.
The final impulse playing out as expected, currently in v/5.
DJ will be the ED completed....
Daily cycles late in the cycle may be a few more days.
The upper trend line has been reached with double RSI divergence on the weekly chart. Impulse or zig-zag - in both cases it is a significant high. All this four years after the previous important top.
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