Weekly preview

Short update only the relevant charts and earlier because I am busy this weekend.

We saw a move lower, but more complicated and deeper than expected. The price touched twice support levels(second chart) - first 38% Fibo and the upper support line and second time 50% Fibo and the lower support line. There is no room to move any lower.
What we have so far is only three waves(corrective) and bounce from MA50/support/Fibo level... but the weekly indicators look bad, market breadth looks bad anyway.... What I want to same is the pattern is not 100% clear which is not a surprise around tops.

The price is above MA50 on the daily chart, we have the end of a quarter and holidays so a plunge looks less likely.
If it is a bullish pattern one more higher high - we should see a move to the last top around 2450 with impulse and small pullback.
If it is a bearish pattern and the top is behind us - we should see weak move three waves higher because of the holidays(thin volume).

For those who blame me that I always draw up and down - sorry that I can not nail the top of wave 3 in bull market at the hourly level(sarc).
You can not trade the hourly chart close to a top with buy and hold. This is completely different trade - this is hit and run.
Here is a trading plan for hourly chart hit and run - if you see impulse to the previous high after a small pullback buy and ride the last 30-40 points, if you see weak move three waves sell with tight stop(the last high) and ride lower.
You do not trade what you do not know you trade what you know weighting the probabilities.
If you can not understand what I explain above and can not create a trading plan(something completely different than analysis) with the information presented on my blog - you just can not trade this time frame move to daily or weekly. How many times have I changed the weekly chart since Feb.2016?


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - how both scenarios should look like.

Intermediate term - the chart which I have posted on 21.June updated - you can see how price plays with support, Fibo levels, MA50, RSI trendline.
If you can tell me if RSI will bounce from the trend line or break lower than I can tell which scenario is playing out:)

Weekly preview

Short term view - small move lower and then it is more likely to see one final high.
Intermediate term view - intermediate term top expected followed by sharp correction lower.

Move up to touch the trend line and reversal... not much of a surprise. The same analysis - either some kind of corrective wave 4 or if we see a reversal we will have only three waves from the April bottom which means B from expanded flat. It is taking too long for a reversal and after the ugly candle from Tuesday there is no follow through so the odds are higher that we have some wave 4 and one more higher high will follow.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - as long as the price stays around support MA200 we have wave 4 and another high will follow(yellow). For something bearish we need clear and convincing move lower below support(red).

Intermediate term - waiting for intermediate top. The bearish scenario flat correction is in fact more bullish - it allows you to count iv-v of 3 then 4-5. If the price continue higher I do not see other way except counting it as the top of wave 3.

Long term - the bull market is not over, but small divergences MACD/RSI are visible so correction is expected.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned bullish last week, but now they are looking bad again.... just more and more weakness.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero now.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal with multiple divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - in overbought territory with divergences.
Bullish Percentage - the only one showing some strength moving above 70.... if you ignore the divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - touched overbought level and reversed sharply.
Fear Indicator VIX - very very tight BB again we should see a spike higher again.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range heading lower since early June.


HURST CYCLES
Day 26 of the 40 day cycle.

Week 12 of the last 20 week cycle.... I am asking myself if the 18 month cycle low was in April???

Update

Move up to touch one more time the trend line and nasty reversal candle with more divergences. The Jury is still out there to decide if this is an impulse or wave B of expanded flat.... I think we will see a move lower to the 2415 area support/38%Fibo/MA50. If it is corrective we will see one more higher high if it is an impulse we will see a bounce from MA50 and lower to MA200:) classical technical analysis.

Weekly preview

Short term view - at the moment one more higher high looks more likely.
Intermediate term view - expecting intermediate term top and sharp correction.

Choppy sideway week.... the same analysis, the difference is the mess from this week is corrective pattern so far, which favors one more higher high.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same patterns, at the moment we have only flat or a triangle for wave 4 which favors the bullish outcome. For the bearish case we need a strong reversal next week so that we have an impulse lower.

Intermediate term - no change. The next high will be intermediate term top.

Long term - the bull market is not over, but small divergences MACD/RSI are visible so correction is expected.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same story... only "Percent of Stocks above MA50" is trying to move into overbought territory, but most of the indicators with double divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero with long term divergence - lower tops since late 2016..
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but with double divergence since March.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70 with double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - trying to move into overbought territory, with divergences since the beginning of 2017.
Fear Indicator VIX - I think we will see a spike higher soon.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range, but turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Day 21 of the 40 day cycle.

Week 11 of the last 20 week cycle, waiting for the top of the 18 month cycle.

GDXJ cycles - the next important low should be in Q4 2017. It is in the last 4th 24 week cycle of the 22 month cycle so the longer cycles 48/96 week are pointing lower. It is not a surprise that we have very weak start - 1/4 of it 6 weeks are behind us and I do not see much strength. The most bullish case I can see is a test of MA50. It will be very surprising to see something more bullish so late in the cycle with such weak price action. Most likely we have an A-B-C from the top and we will see important low for C in Q4.

Weekly preview

Short term view - still waiting for the market to take a decision.
Intermediate term view - believe it or not I do not see bullish signals so the next bigger move is lower.

Quiet week, nothing has changed only the leader, the technology sector plunged on Friday... probably the indexes are waiting for FOMC next week. Currently I see two possible patterns - wave B from expanded flat and and some kind of ED for wave iii or v of 3. The only index which really moved higher since March is NASDAQ. Now it has 5 waves from the bottom in March with multiple RSI divergences.... it will be really very surprising if it continue the rally. Yesterday feels like climax for Nasdaq/SOX and VIX... it is getting more and more difficult to see something bullish - call me broken clock or wrong big time:) but this is what I see.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the two short term patterns - expanded flat and ED.

Intermediate term - the same like last week, now Nasdaq joint to the party with MACD/RSI divergences. On this chart is shown expanding ED.

Long term - the bull market is not over, but small divergences MACD/RSI are visible so correction is expected.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week, hanging somewhere in the middle without clear signal. They are showing weakness and not strength that is why I think the next move is lower.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly above zero with long term divergence lower tops since late 2016.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but with double divergence since March.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - trying to reach the overbought territory.
Fear Indicator VIX - looks like climax, lowest level since 1993 and sharp reversal.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Day 16 of the 40 day cycle. The low for the 20 day cycle will show us if we will see one more high.

Week 10 of the last 20 week cycle, waiting for the top of the 18 month cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
On the weekly chart we have finished combo/countdown, but no price flip. On the daily chart setup was finished this week.

Russell2000

Weekly preview

Short term view - decision time, I think the direction will be lower.
Intermediate term view - I expect a top and correction for a few weeks.

The analysis has not changed - we saw the small moves down and up this week and reached a crossroad. Either bearish scenario (top for iii of 3 or B) with a move below 2320 or bullish continuation higher for another 2-3 weeks to finish wave 3 to around 2475-2500. All tools I use favor the bearish scenario. Now waiting for the market to show its cards and we trade accordingly.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same like last week just reached the point where the scenarios should start move in different directions. Bearish below 2320 or bullish continuation towards 2500.

Intermediate term - I think it is more likely to see MACD/RSI divergences than the price breaking out above the trend line,going vertically higher and erasing the divergences.

Long term - the oscillators a showing divergence so I expect intermediate term correction. This is not the top of the bull market.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are hanging somewhere in the middle without clear signal. They could move to overbought territory confirming bullish move or to oversold territory confirming bearish move. They look weak to me.... that is why I think the next move is lower.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly above zero with long term divergence lower tops since late 2016.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but with double divergence since March.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - again below 10... this is high risk for longs.
Advance-Decline Issues - trying to reach overbought level.


HURST CYCLES
Day 11 of the 40 day cycle.

Week 9 of the last 20 week cycle, waiting for the top of the 18 month cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Now we have 13 on the weekly chart for a finished combo/countdown and waiting for a price flip.