Weekly preview

Short term view - one more leg higher expected.
Intermediate term view - it is more likely that the correction is already running.

We have the short term bottom and move higher.... overall the same analysis like last week. We had one strong day and three days nothing so I think it is more likely this is wave B. As long as the price stays below resistance around 2475 it is wave B. If we see the price above it expect another higher high around 2520.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - more likely another leg higher to challenge resistance. Less likely scenarios - plunge lower from this levels and B is over or a move above resistance for a final high around 2520.

Intermediate term - I think correction is running and it will take time... most likely some combination. Now I expect one more leg higher next week and the histogram resetting above zero.

Long term - no change, expecting correction wave 4 followed by another rally higher. All indicators are pointing lower. I think RSI should at least touch the trend line before the correction is over.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - trying to turn higher, but no signs of strength - most likely this is wave B higher.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero cleared the oversold conditions.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal reached oversold levels.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - looks like a-b-c lower with another leg higher to follow.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up in the middle of the range, but if you see the cumulative AD this move higher should be corrective.


HURST CYCLES
Day 4, I think the next 40 day cycle is running.

Week 1 or 8? Either we have 20 week cycle low in this case we should see higher high or we have 11+8(20 week cycle low in July) weeks and we are in the middle of the second 20 week cycle from April this fits much better wit a correction already running.

Weekly preview

Short term view - short term bottom and move higher.
Intermediate term view - difficult to see something very bearish at the moment..... I am not sure if a correction is running or there is one more high(SP500 and DJ other indexes made a top already).

We did not see one more low for an impulse, the market just continued with the retracement higher and another leg lower. So far I see only a-b-c from the top... not very bearish. The only bearish option is the indexes to accelerate lower for wave 3 which I do not think it will happen, even one more higher high looks better (see last chart).
Possible corrective patterns if a correction is already running - wave A of a zig-zag or wave 3 of a diagonal for wave A of a zig-zag.... and this zig-zag could be part of a triangle or combination.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I think move higher is coming. If it is a corrective and stays below the resistance zone it is wave B. If it is impulsive and break trough resistance - one more high for the end of wave 3 on the daily chart.

Intermediate term - the pattern looks corrective may be part of a complex combination or triangle.... even another high is possible.

Long term - expecting correction wave 4 followed by another rally higher.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the McClellan Oscillator says we should expect a bottom, but a short term bottom. All other indicators are pointing lower.
McClellan Oscillator - making a second trough probably with divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - heading lower still elevated levels.
Fear Indicator VIX - not so funny anymore if you are short volatility.
Advance-Decline Issues - here is why this decline is different than May 17th - majority of stocks are declining. We have a sell signal and even if we see a higher high I expect a divergence and intermediate term top. So as I wrote in comments this is a mirror picture of May 17th the market is topping compared to bottoming back then.

HURST CYCLES
Day 31 of the 40 day cycle, nearing a bottom.

Week 18 we should be close to a bottom.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
The weekly chart still pointing lower. The daily chart - this sell off came one day later and the setup was negated. This is a hint that is more likely that we have a-b-c lower and not an impulse.

Nasdaq (QQQ) does not look bearish either. May be some kind of a diagonal for A and B should follow.

The same on the daily chart.

DJ - again acceleration lower for bearish pattern when the index is above MA50 looks less likely. Even higher high looks better, unless some unexpected bad news hit the market.

Weekly preview

Short term view - one more lower low and retracement higher.
Intermediate term view - intermediate term correction running.

Thrust higher of a triangle for wave 5 and reversal - typical price action. I hope you was not too greedy and took some profits:). We still need to see finished impulse for 100% confirmation, but all signs are pointing to intermediate term top and a correction for a few weeks.

The correction has just begun and wave 4 is the most difficult to predict. It is too early to say how it look like, but I think we should see the price at least visiting the 2320-2350 range. Last week I have explained that if we use the EW alternation rule the options are sharp sell off(repeat of the VIX/price action from 2006/2007) or time consuming pattern like triangle. The second option with a low in November for 40 week cycle looks the more logical choice.... or some combination of both scenarios above quick sell off to 2330-2350 and then boring price action for 2-3 months until October-November.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the price action looks like an impulse, but we need one more lower low for confirmation. We have bearish signs - the price broke below the trend line and the support level so the odds are higher that the impulse will be completed.

Intermediate term - RSI broke below the trend so this move is not part of the rally from the April low. I think wave 4 is running. The market needs to bleed off the greed and the options are to scare the traders(red) or time so that most of them lose interest(green).

Long term - expecting correction wave 4 followed by another rally higher.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are pointing lower with sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - oversold level. We should see a short term bottom soon.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - sell signal below 50.
Fear Indicator VIX - nice spike which is not much of a surprise.
Advance-Decline Issues - plunging lower since FOMC. Lets see if this move lower has the strength to push it in oversold territory. I think the answer is yes - Cumulative A/D turned lower for the first time since March.


HURST CYCLES
Day 26 of the 40 day cycle .

Week 17, another 1-2 weeks lower for 20 week cycle low will look good.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Around the FOMC high we have finished setup and countdown - TDemark sequential did very good job spotting the top. After that we saw twice higher highs but notice the candles - bearish hanging man and shooting star 27.07 and 08.08.
Currently day 4 of setup lower and price flip on the weekly chart.

Update

We have a triangle which is usually wave 4 and break out as expected, finished pattern from the June low and MACD divergence.... it smells like a top, I can not see more bullish counts.

Weekly preview

Short term view - one final high.
Intermediate term view - after the high intermediate term top and correction for a few weeks.

One big nothing this week... but nothing is information too. The signs are pointing to one more high - long sideway move favors wave 4 which means to expect one more high, cycles - it looks like mid cycle low around day 20 for the 40 day cycle and one more higher high.

Overall the indexes look different - DJ strong, Nasdaq/SP500 sideway move(>15 days in this 10 point range), Europe,RUT,DJT weak correcting already.
I think they will synchronize DJ/SP500 making one more high and the weak indexes retracing higher then all sell off for a few weeks.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - this sideway move starts looking like a triangle and favors the bullish pattern from last week so I expect bullish outcome.
Alternate it still can test MA200, but as long as the price stays above 2450 the price action is bullish.

Intermediate term - wave iv of 3 does not make much sense anymore so I removed it. I think this is the top of wave 3.
When the top of wave 3 is behind us I see two options for wave 4 - wave 2 was a flat so wave 4 should be something different(the rule of alternation).
- If history repeats (VIX/Price behavior from 2006/2007) we should see a zig-zag (red).
- the other option is a pattern which will consume time - triangle or complex correction.

Long term - no change. We should see at least one more higher high for the bull market. RSI/MACD look bad - it is more likely to see a correction before another significant move higher.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - most of them turned lower and showing signs of weakness....
McClellan Oscillator - below zero. One move above zero and divergence for the final high will look great.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, reached overbought level.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower and now below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower after second failed attempt to move above 75.... sign for a weakness. And long term divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - around 10 with very tight BB again.


HURST CYCLES
Day 21... we have have something like a bottom in the middle of the 40 day cycle around day 20. This 20 day cycle was strong right translated so the next 20 day cycle is expected to make a higher high.

Week 16 - it is getting more and more likely that the 18 month cycle low was in April.