Weekly preview

In the comments I wrote that plunge is unlikely so the price behavior this week is not a surprise. For a bigger move we should see most shares/assets aligned and ready to decline. For example I am watching BA to reset the indicators and finish w2 before DJIA plunge lower, or the energy sector crude oil/XOI - I think they have finished wave 4/c and we need one more higher high 5/c to complete corrective leg a-b-c higher.

For SP500 higher high in the area 2865-2875 with divergences will look better. From EW perspective higher high will not change much the ED will be in tact. From cycle perspective with higher high we will have right translated cycle, which means the next 20 week cycle should make higher high.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I think we have zig-zag lower and another zig-zag higher is running all this part of the ED. Alternate corrective wave ii(red) is running making lower high and next week the decline continues.

Intermediate term - price is struggling in the resistance zone and the indicators showing weakness with divergences. Even in the bullish case we should see decline for wave 2/b.

Long term - wave B/X running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse wave 1.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new market breadth is weak and even if we see higher high for the indexes the divergences will be just bigger.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - topping.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence expected.
Fear Indicator VIX - building divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak and divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Day 15 for the current daily cycle. If we see higher high two daily cycles will look better than three shorter one. The end result will be the same so it does not really matter for trading.

Week 14 for the 20 week cycle. Last week I have shown the two counts with shorter and longer 18 month cycles.

Crude oil - this is zig-zag for me with v/c running. Moving averages are like magnet and we see classical price action - huge plunge below MA200 and now price is coming back to kiss it.

Weekly preview

One more rally as expected, which corresponds to the expanding ED shown last week and sharp reversal. So now we have the minimum waves needed for finished pattern and the reversal is not a surprise. The cycles suggest that the 20 week cycle turned lower and we should see roughly 3 weeks lower. Market breadth was already negative in the last two weeks with divergences, TomDemark sell setup on the weekly chart.... so expect the indexes moving lower for a few weeks.
Possible EW patterns - finished B wave or alternate expanding flat correction(not my favorite). Impulse lower in both cases, the only difference between the two patterns is how deep the retracement will be. For a flat in the range 2680-2700 for B and reversal minimum 38% retracement.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - now we have possible finished pattern wave B(white), but expanding flat correction for b(red) can not be excluded. Minimum expected is an impulse lower to support around 2680.

Intermediate term - pullback from the first resistance, then the second one tested and sharp reversal. The indicators with divergences so I expect lower for a few weeks than we will assess the pattern again. I still think this is corrective wave B/X what ever... I can not see an impulse.

Long term - wave B running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse wave 1.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - divergences and now with sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence and sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence and sell signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - bounced from the trend line connecting the important lows in 2018 and turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - bigger divergence and turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Day 10 for the current daily cycle.
Sharp reversal closing below the previous day low and MA10 which means high probability that the daily cycle turned lower.
Overall text book cycle behavior - the first one very strong, the second one weaker and the third one left translated failed cycle to signal the cycle of higher degree turned lower.

Week 13 for the 20 week cycle. Again both models with shorter and longer 18 month cycles.
Shorter 18 month cycles - if we have wave B the last 40 week cycle is running. In April we should see 20 week cycle low wave 1/C bounce up a few weeks 2/C and then lower July/August 3-4-5/C for 4 year cycle low.

Longer 18 month cycles - the only way I see for this count to work is if we have complex W-X-Y pattern. In this case we should see 20 week cycle low in April and another higher high for a-b-c/X. Another option is huge flat and instead X it is B, but then c/B should take another 2 months at least and C lower should move "slowly" instead of 2-3 months something like 5-6 months.

Weekly preview

Higher for the week as expected, but on Monday impulse to the downside has not been confirmed and the move up made higher high(DJIA has not). Short term it is more complicated now with this bunch of corrective waves... all probabilities I see are shown on the first chart - ED or complex correction shown last week. Next week is decision time the market will show us what is going on.

Intermediate term - see the forest for the trees the next bigger move is lower. The indexes are close to a high, the 20 week cycle should turn lower soon, the indicators does not look good building divergences, market breadth is building divergences,TomDemark weekly sell setup finished, Europe and crude oil finishing a-b-c. I do not know how to twist the intermediate term picture bullish.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the red scenario is the same, which I have shown last week. The indexes are in sync DJIA weaker with simple zig-zag and SP500 stronger with flat for wave (a)/b.
With the higher high is the door open for ED pattern which I have mentioned a few times. Wave 5(yellow) for expanding ED to test the Jan.2018 high or w3(white) for ED with 4-5/c/B to follow.

Intermediate term - the indicators do not look so good, I expect divergences. Nearing the top for the move which begun in Dec.2018. Next bigger move should be lower mid-April or later for 20 week cycle low.

Long term - wave B running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse and it is wave 1.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower last week and now ready for divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - heading higher after oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - lower high and divergence?
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - lower high and divergence?
Fear Indicator VIX - plunged lower to the trend line connecting the last two lows. The risk for a reversal is rising.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher, but expect more divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Day 5 for the third daily cycle. Definitely looks like three shorter cycles.

Week 12 for the 20 week cycle. It is mature now and any move higher should not last very long. If we have wave B I have to switch to the model with shorter cycles - the last 40 week cycle running.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Week 9 we have finished sell setup. Price flip will confirm sell signal - for the next week this is close below 2792.

Weekly preview

Lower as expected, but this is not small wave 4/c. Ugly weekly candle, market breadth turned lower and it seems the 20 week cycle made a high and turned lower. At the moment I is see two options:
- this is wave "a" for a-b-c of 2 or b/B.
- or B is finished and we have reversal with 1-2-3 sequence instead of a-b-c.
From trading perspective it is the same - the next high is a sell.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the bulls see wave 1, the bears wave B and in the middle is a/B. The main scenario is now wave a running but we should see the price below 2700 for confirmation. Quick drop to finish an impulse and turn higher will look great next week.

Intermediate term - the price should spend some time between MA50 and MA200 followed by final plunge for 20 week cycle low.

Long term - wave B running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse and it is wave 1.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - now all indicators turned lower, there is no divergences to confirm major sell signal.
McClellan Oscillator - oversold levels.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower, sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned lower, sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - is heading higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower after divergences as expected.


HURST CYCLES
Day 27 or 50. You can count one long 40 day cycle or 20 week cycle consisting of three shorter cycles. In both cases we should see one more daily cycle which should be shorter 25-30 days to complete 20 week cycle.

Week 11 for the 20 week cycle. Another option is shorter cycles and this is the second 40 week cycle for the last 18 month cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Week 8 for a sell setup. Next week the price should close above 2775 for 9.

Weekly preview

One more hit of the trend line(first chart) and corrective pullback as expected. The price action so far confirms the primary scenario iii-iv/c/B running. As long as the price stays above MA200 around 2750 I expect one more leg higher...

RUT has impulse lower, but the major indexes SP500/DJI/NYSE nothing more than corrective pullback so far. The big picture - European indexes, Emerging markets, Crude oil all with zig-zags higher. I think all markets are in sync and despite the strong move for the US indexes it is the same pattern - just corrective zig-zag.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - difficult to see reversal pattern, only corrective crap. Most likely we are seeing wave iii-iv of c/B. In this case we should see one more move lower to finish iv and v should make new high. The signs point to something around 2870 - several Fibo measurements, one more hit of the trend line, resistance Jan.2018 high.
What bothers me is this final zig-zag in the circle so something slightly different could be playing out - see the second chart.

Different outcome, but only short term which does not change the big picture.

Intermediate term - first resistance hit and as long as the price stays above MA200 the next target should be the Jan.2018 high.
The indicators showing that the trend is exhausted - best case is one more high with divergences to finish a-b-c/B.

Long term - wave B running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse and it is wave 1.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - double divergences for the oscillators like A/D line and McClellan Oscillator. The trend following indicators are still pointing up.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, in overbought territory.
Bullish Percentage - slightly above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very overbought.
Fear Indicator VIX - nearing the trend line, expect intermediate term low soon.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergences and turning lower.


HURST CYCLES
Day 45 for the daily cycle.... wondering if we have three shorter cycles 3x~25 days instead of 2x~40 days.

Week 10 for the 20 week cycle. Another option is shorter cycles and this is the second 40 week cycle for the last 18 month cycle.