Weekly preview

Another week the same price action - one day wonder followed by... nothing. The "strength" comes from the tech sector NDX/SOX, other indexes like NYSE,DJIA,DJT,RUT,XLF,XLE are lagging. After BA now MMM,INTC,XLNX with 10% gaps lower.... is this really strong broad based rally?

Overall it would be great to see one more pull back and higher high(what I am showing in the last several weeks) than we would have nice looking pattern.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I will stick with this count until I see impulsive reversal. NYSE and DJIA with some corrective sideway move, SP500 drifting higher but I see three waves... either v/3 finishing as ED or flat for w4.

Intermediate term - pullback for 1-2 weeks for daily cycle low, to test support and MA50 followed by one more high will look great. This will be nice clean pattern.
Alternate is we have w-x-y from the low in Dec.2018, but I would not bet on such pattern until I see confirmation for reversal.

Long term - one more leg lower to finish wave IV from 2009. Decline in three waves and a low in Q1.2020 will fit better with cycles. I do not know how to count an impulse, but if I am wrong it is wave 1/V.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weakness most of the indicators with divergences, the next bigger move is lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal with divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - refuses to go lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Day 33, decline for 1-2 weeks for daily cycle low expected.

Week 18, I suspect stealth 20 week cycle low and the coming high is of 40 week cycle degree.

Weekly preview

Another boring week... nothing changed, pullback running and another high expected.

Last week mentioned something about cycles so to clarify - the message is the current high should be of 40 week cycle degree. In this case when the decline starts the price should move lower with short pauses for a few months.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - as long as we do not see impulsive break below the trend line/MA200/gap/support I expect one more high.

Intermediate term - nothing new.... up and down around the resistance levels and divergences.

Long term - one more leg lower to finish wave IV from 2009. Decline in three waves and a low in Q1.2020 will fit better with cycles.
I do not know how to count an impulse, but if I am wrong it is wave 1/V.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weakness most of the indicators with divergences, the next bigger move is lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - oversold a lot of complacency again.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.


HURST CYCLES
The average cycle length for 40 week cycle is something like 32-36 weeks. High-to-high analysis - if you count from top to top we are at week 30. For example the previous 40 week cycle high was from the Jan.2018 high to the September.2018 high with length 34 weeks. So this high looks more and more like 40 week cycle degree and when the declines begins it will be for 40 week cycle low, or decline for a few months without a pause several weeks for 20 week cycle low.

The next question is the Dec.2018 low 18 month cycle low or not(longer or shorter 18 month cycles)? The longer it takes the more likely is that the scenario below is playing out - 4 year cycle low in Q1.2020.

Day 29 nearing the top of the current daily cycle.

Week 17.... I think the first 20 week cycle low is behind us and the coming high is of 40 week cycle degree.

Weekly preview

Grind higher which is not a surprise. The upper trend line was hit one more time with more divergences and now most of the indexes with 5 waves form the 25.03 low.
I expect to see the indexes lower next week, but I have the feeling the real decline will be in May(last two charts). Lets see how the next week will look like.... in fact if you are bullish you want to see a decline NOW than you can count impulse an bullish 20 week cycle. With one more pullback and a high corrective structure will be confirmed.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - impulse from the last low with divergence so next week should be lower. For a reversal we need to see impulsive break below the trend line and the gap.

Intermediate term - late in the cycle with divergences... my feeling tells me one more pullback and a high to finish B.
Some have fantasy about 3000 we have to see acceleration higher in third wave from this levels, but with RSI at 70 I doubt it will happen. The real bullish scenario is decline now for 20 week cycle low and wave 2.

Long term - wave B(more exotic D expanding triangle) running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse wave 1.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - with divergences, the market looks tired , the time is getting ripe for correction.
McClellan Oscillator - lower high and divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - lower high and divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - lower highs and divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - plunge to 12.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.


HURST CYCLES
The cycles are getting too stretched... I am starting to think that we have stealth 20 week cycle low in March and the coming high will be of 40 week cycle degree especially if we see one more high later in April and the decline in May.

Day 25 for the daily cycle.

Week 16 for the 20 week cycle.

Two charts DJIA and XOI for really nice finished patterns we need one more pull back and a high then the decline begins in May.

Energy sector and crude oil with very high correlation - both need one more pullback and a high for finished pattern.

Weekly preview

Higher high as expected, impulse with divergence on the hourly chart so waiting to see what happens next week. As long as the gap 2835-2845 holds the index will continue grinding higher. If we see break below it, with high probability the 20 week cycle turned lower and we should see 3-4 weeks to the downside.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the upper trend line tested twice with finished impulse and divergence. The gap from this week is the line in the sand to watch. As long as it holds continuation higher is expected.

Intermediate term - in the resistance zone with divergences and late in the cycle.

Long term - wave B/X running for IV from 2009. If I am wrong it is an impulse wave 1.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same weak market breadth with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with bigger divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - double top.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - trend line hit and divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Day 20 for the second daily cycle. One surprising scenario is we have shorter 20 week cycle and the second one is running.

Week 15 for the 20 week cycle. Another count with shorter 18 month cycles possible.