Weekly preview

From the November low the pattern looks like a flat on many indices.... SP500 you can find triangle or diagonal if you want, but I think this is less likely. From cycle perspective week 7 from the last high so close to the next intermediate term high and next is decline into 20w low early February.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, nearing the next intermediate term high.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - possible flat obscured by higher high in the middle of the b-wave. This last leg is too fast for triangle or diagonal it is more likely c-wave.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change more of the same.
McClellan Oscillator - positive above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal, low levels.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, in oversold teritory.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - made higher high and retracing lower. I am expecting another higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.

HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - not clear like the pattern, but at week 7 from the last high so close to 10w high.

Week 12 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September with one extra 20w cycle, alternate on time in June.

Weekly preview

Looking the cycles I see 5w high and now decline until Christmas for 5w low followed by final push higher during the holidays.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, close below MA10 but I think there will be one more high.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the most simple pattern is we have b/c/Z and one final push higher. More complex patterns - diagonal or triangle for c/Z.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change more of the same.
McClellan Oscillator - reseting after oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - made higher high and retracing lower. I am expecting another higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible 20d low and high this week and now decline into 5w low after 5w high. For complete longer term cycle is one more 20d cycle high needed.

Week 11 for the 20w cycle. The 20w cycle high is at week 16 so nearing the top. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high.

Weekly preview

We have the 10w low and now it should take roughly 3 weeks until the next intermediate term top, which should be 4y cycle high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, rising into the next intermediate term top.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - for now counting this as b/Z and another zig-zag for c/Z.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
I am expect one more high before significant decline - and this is playing out now.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow. MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - in the middle of a move up.
McClellan Oscillator - reseting after oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - made higher high and retracing lower. I am expecting another higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I think the 5w high was last week and now we should see 20d high next week. Intermediate term we have 10w low and now higher into 10w high.

Week 10 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September with one extra 20w cycle, alternate on time in June.

Weekly preview

Extremely volatile week, NYSE/DJ joined the DAX this decline looks more like reversal. The decline is too deep and faster than the previous wave up. Again the tech indices+SP500 could make higher high and other indices lower high.

Short term waiting for the next week to see if we have 10w low. After that we should see a few weeks higher for the holidays. Overall the indices are at important top 4y cycle high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, it is a better idea to wait for the next high if you want to sell.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - possible double zig-zag lower. Waiting for more price action - it could be b/Z or a of something bigger.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
I am expect one more high before significant decline - it could be higher high with divergence or lower high.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - tricky it could be 10w low and turn from oversold levels or the markets are in bearish mode and the oversold levels will be tested one more time for 10w low in 1-2 weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - bounce from oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - bounce up.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher high, waiting for higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower low and bounce from oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the cycle model on the chart below has good looking high-low sequence. In this case we should see 5w high soon and final decline for 10w low. Alternate this week we saw the 10w low.

Week 9 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September with one extra 20w cycle, alternate on time in June.

Weekly preview

Lower as expected, the indices should be close to 10w low. They look different - DAX like reversal, DJ/NYSE reversal but b-wave is still on the table, SPX/NDX too early to confirm reversal. Waiting for the low and the reaction to make some conclusions. Tech indices could make higher high and other indices lower high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, close to a low so it is a better idea to wait for the next high if you want to sell.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - waiting for more price action one option is impulse c/Z completed or complex wave b/Z running.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
Another reaction after testing the trend lines.... waiting to see how big.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, waiting to see just short term top or something more.
McClellan Oscillator - nearing oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower at 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower at 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher, we need higher high to confirm reversal.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower, nearing oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - lower into 20d low as expected. This should be 10w low... the highs look messy next week we should see turn higher for 5w high. Most bullish case another 5 weeks and 10/20/40w high. Most bearish case we saw 4y top.

Week 8 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September the case with one extra 20w cycle so that time adjusts for the missing one from last year.

Weekly preview

This should be short term high 20d cycle high. Very mixed picture - NDX strong higher, SPX testng the high becaue of tech stocks, DJ/NYSE lower.... are the indices diverging at THE top? The pattern looks like another double zig-zag and the cycles nearing 20w high. We have to wait for more clarity.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I would say some kind of double zig-zag.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z from the March.2020 low. NDX shows possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y https://invst.ly/wnvob.
Reaction after testing the trend lines.... still waiting for more price action.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish".

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change, at least short term top. Is it something more - we have to wait and see.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turning lower.
Bullish Percentage - hit overbought level 70 and turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower after touching overbought level 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher lows so far... double bottoms short term and intermediate term..
Advance-Decline Issues - lower highs and turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - day 10 so the indices should be close or at 20d high and next is lower for 20d low. Intermediate term - could it be 20w high?

Week 7 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September the case with one extra 20w cycle so that time adjusts for the missing one from last year. The cycle sequence high-low looks perect so I will follow this model until proven wrong.

Weekly preview

Lower for at least 20d cycle low, but too early to make conclusions. Short term pattern and cycles are tricky we will have to wait for more clarity. Long term at the top of 4y cycle high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal. 46 days turn lower into the next daily cycle low?
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - more price action is needed to make some conclusion. If this is not an impulse and reversal it could be some b-wave like this(DJ with 20d highs) - https://invst.ly/wlkh1

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z from the March.2020 low.
Reaction after testing the trend lines.... still waiting for more price action.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish".

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change, at least short term top. Is it something more - we have to wait and see.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, reached overbought area.
Bullish Percentage - below 70 like double top.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - scratching 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low so far... double bottoms short term and intermediate term.
Advance-Decline Issues - very weak, lower highs and turning lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw 20d high and now at 20d low as expected, but the intermediate term cycles are not very clear....

Week 6 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low still not clear - either in June on time or late September the case with one extra 20w cycle so that time adjusts for the missing one from last year.

Weekly preview

I would say the B-wave(from the late September low) is dead - too steep and too big. The question is if we have c/Z or a/c/Z. From pattern perspective it is almost perfect - equality reached c=a for Z, three zig-zags from the March low with roughly the same length. From cycle perspective another few weeks will look better, but this is not a guarantee(the last chart).
Maybe we will see some topping for a few weeks and one more test of the trend line(daily chart)....

Market breadth is troubling for the bullish case. It behaves like we have transition from bull to bear market.
In bull market the indicators touch oversold levels and shoot up in overbought territory and stay there. In Bear markets the opposite occurs.
Currently we have vertical move "400 pt rally in a month. Fastest bull market in history since the 2020 low"... cheering and what is market breadth doing? Not even touched overbought levels. Bullish Percentage is below 70, McClellan Summation Index is below 500, Percent of Stocks above MA50 is below 75, Advance-Decline Issues is not even close to overbought.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like impulse, but looking the DJ you can see another double zig-zag - https://invst.ly/wimw4.
Waiting to see the reaction reversal or b-wave. (it is "or a/c/Z")

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z from the March.2020 low.
Testing the trend lines and two legs higher with the same size for Z. Waiting to see the reaction.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish".

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change signs of weakening, at least short term top.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs and divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70 like double top.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low so far... double bottoms short term and intermediate term.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high and heading lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - not easy to spot following the indicator below this is the short term count - 5w high followed by a 5w low and now at 20d high, next we should see a few days correction for a 20d low.

Week 5 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low still not clear - either in June on time or late Septembar the case with one extra 20w cycle so that time adjust for the missing one from last year.
Last week wrote if it is not B-wave it is bearish because it is heading higher into the sixth 40w cycle high or 4y high. This is how it looks like - 4 perfect hits one a few weeks earlier and the current one. Perfect hit is in a few weeks. jpnor this is mid-December I can not twist it as a low....

Weekly preview

Reached the time target for 10w high. More and more it looks like part of Z-wave and 4y cycle high.

The last chart is DJ showing late September was 20w low. In this case the indices are heading into 20w high and this high will complete the sixth 40 week cycle from the Jan.2018 top or 4 year cycle high. jpnor asked about the first half of December - well this is the case for major top.
If you are bullish pray for the markets to decline below the September low.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal. Reached the average length for 10w high.
Analysis - sell the highs, the market is near a major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - for B-wave we need to see sharp reversal... I doubt it. More likely we are in c/Z.

Intermediate term - It looks more and more like W-x-Y-x-Z structure three zig-zags from the March.2020 low with roughly the same length in time.
Testing the broken trend line with RSI divergences daily and weekly.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow.
Some perspective for those with the 5500 fantasy... it is just getting started for sure.... all sheeple with the same target - one says baaa and all the others repeat.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - signs of weakening, at least short term top.
McClellan Oscillator - loer high and ready move below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - topping below 70?
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - looks lie topping below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low so far... double bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high and heading lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - NDX more clear picture 4x20d cycles 8 weeks for 10w high. In the next days we should see turn into 10w low.

Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. At the moment it is very difficult to pinpoint the 18m cycle low...
Week 4 for the 20w cycle? Was late September 20w low?? or even 18m low??? like this (DJ):