Weekly preview

I was not sure if the current 5w cycle will make higher high - SP500 with slightly higher high other major indices like DJ,DAX,NYSE are lagging so far.
We may see one final push higher next week for DJ/NYSE to catch up, but the next big move is decline in September for 18m cycle low.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - sell the rips, long topping process.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - with so many overlaping zig-zags there is a lot of room for interpretation. One option is double zig-zag from the May low consisting of 4 zig-zags with simmilar reactions in the middle. The other options are shown on the daily chart.

Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
Another option is zig-zag from the March low and c/C/Y as an ED(green). Some are watching big ED C/Y from the March low(red).
RSI/MACD with multiple divergences, it looks like we have mature pattern what ever it is.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change, intermediate term decline is expected.
McClellan Oscillator - reset from sligthly oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell ignal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - trying to turn up.
Bullish Percentage - lower high, below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - double top below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - another higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak did not move above the zero line.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - nearing 20d high it could take another few days after that is decline into 20d low.

I think the best fit is the indices are at 20w high, then decline into 40w/18m cycle low with one extra 10w cycle. This is the missing 10w cycle from last year.

Weekly preview

We saw a decline this week, the indices should be at 5w low. Now waiting to see what happens next week. I do not know if we will see a new high or failed attempt to bounce from MA50 and turn lower into most likely 18m low. According to market breadth the decline is just starting.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell, it looks like MA10 cross and test.
Analysis - sell the rips, long topping process.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag down and up, more price action is needed to talk about pattern.

Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
We have obviously overlapping waves, so if we see continuation higher the pattern should be some kind of ED for the last wave c/C/Y.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower again. I think the message is we need leg lower for intermediate term low.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - trying to turn up.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - spiking higher again. Convincing break of the trend line connecting the highs is needed to signal reversal.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we have a decline into 5w low. Next we should see move up into 20d high. I can not say if the next 5w high will be a higher high or lower high... waiting for now.

The long term count is not very clear, there is no visible significant low, the indices do not show consistent picture so we will be sure only in hindsight where the 18m low is.
I talk about the current 18m cycle extending because of missing cycles in the previous one so here is one speculation - what happens if you put the previous 18m low where it should be in June.2020 and start counting? You will see three perfect 20w cycles and now in the middle of the fourth one. If we see decline into mid-October I will have to accept that the rhytm of time has not changed.

Weekly preview

Nothing new this week, the market working on this small c-wave and 20d high. Now waiting to see the reaction next week - if it is big enough for possible 20w high and turn lower into 18m low.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy, possible turn into 18m low next week.
Analysis - sell the rips, long topping process.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same c-wave and zig-zag completing. Next is decline which again will wipe out one month gains.

Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
The same like last week. In logarithmic scale Fibo measurement has been reached Y=0,618xW.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change in the last few weeks. One more sell off is needed to complete the correction, this is the message from market breadth. It is resetting higher and not reversing.
McClellan Oscillator - around the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - trying to turn up.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - trying to turn up.
Bullish Percentage - testing the overbought level around 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - testing the overbought level around 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low and divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high and in the middle of the range. For the first time cumultive A/D is showing signs of topping.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - mature 20d cycle high at least 5w high so next is decline for at least 5w low.

The long term count is not very clear, there is no visible significant low, the indices do not show consistent picture so we will be sure only in hindsight where the 18m low is.
At the moment I think the best fit is 20w high and 40w/18m cycle low with one extra 10w cycle. Alternate the 18m low was in June/July which will mean next is decline into 20w low until October/November.

Weekly preview

No surprises this week very slow price action - 20d/b-wave low on Tuesday and now crawling higher for at least 5w/c-wave high. The indices are close to 20w high so careful with longs.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy, found support at MA10 because of expected 20d cycle low.
Analysis - sell the rips, long topping process.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - most likely another zig-zag from a bigger zig-zag (see the daily charts). Less likely green b-wave is not completed.

Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
For the Dow pattern which makes sense is shown on the chart with 18m high right on schedule. There is many indices with this pattern.

SP500 could be counted differently like double zig-zag for C/Y. I have already shown this counts pick your favorite.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change in the last few weeks. One more sell off is needed to complete the correction, this is the message from market breadth.
McClellan Oscillator - up and down around the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, reached the oversold level.
Bullish Percentage - testing the overbought level around 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range, does not show signs of strength.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing, expect one more spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high and in the middle of the range. For the first time cumultive A/D is showing signs of topping.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw 20d low and now heading higher into at least 5w high which could be 20w high too. Already day 9 so another 1-2-3 days.

The long term count is not very clear, there is no visible significant low, the indices do not show consistent picture so we will be sure only in hindsight where the 18m low is.
At the moment I think the best fit is 20w high and 40w/18m cycle with one extra 10w cycle.