Weekly preview

Lower as expected, the indices should be close to 10w low. They look different - DAX like reversal, DJ/NYSE reversal but b-wave is still on the table, SPX/NDX too early to confirm reversal. Waiting for the low and the reaction to make some conclusions. Tech indices could make higher high and other indices lower high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, close to a low so it is a better idea to wait for the next high if you want to sell.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - waiting for more price action one option is impulse c/Z completed or complex wave b/Z running.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
Another reaction after testing the trend lines.... waiting to see how big.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, waiting to see just short term top or something more.
McClellan Oscillator - nearing oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower at 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower at 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher, we need higher high to confirm reversal.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower, nearing oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - lower into 20d low as expected. This should be 10w low... the highs look messy next week we should see turn higher for 5w high. Most bullish case another 5 weeks and 10/20/40w high. Most bearish case we saw 4y top.

Week 8 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September the case with one extra 20w cycle so that time adjusts for the missing one from last year.

Weekly preview

This should be short term high 20d cycle high. Very mixed picture - NDX strong higher, SPX testng the high becaue of tech stocks, DJ/NYSE lower.... are the indices diverging at THE top? The pattern looks like another double zig-zag and the cycles nearing 20w high. We have to wait for more clarity.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I would say some kind of double zig-zag.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z from the March.2020 low. NDX shows possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y https://invst.ly/wnvob.
Reaction after testing the trend lines.... still waiting for more price action.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish".

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change, at least short term top. Is it something more - we have to wait and see.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turning lower.
Bullish Percentage - hit overbought level 70 and turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower after touching overbought level 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher lows so far... double bottoms short term and intermediate term..
Advance-Decline Issues - lower highs and turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - day 10 so the indices should be close or at 20d high and next is lower for 20d low. Intermediate term - could it be 20w high?

Week 7 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September the case with one extra 20w cycle so that time adjusts for the missing one from last year. The cycle sequence high-low looks perect so I will follow this model until proven wrong.

Weekly preview

Lower for at least 20d cycle low, but too early to make conclusions. Short term pattern and cycles are tricky we will have to wait for more clarity. Long term at the top of 4y cycle high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal. 46 days turn lower into the next daily cycle low?
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - more price action is needed to make some conclusion. If this is not an impulse and reversal it could be some b-wave like this(DJ with 20d highs) - https://invst.ly/wlkh1

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z from the March.2020 low.
Reaction after testing the trend lines.... still waiting for more price action.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish".

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change, at least short term top. Is it something more - we have to wait and see.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, reached overbought area.
Bullish Percentage - below 70 like double top.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - scratching 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low so far... double bottoms short term and intermediate term.
Advance-Decline Issues - very weak, lower highs and turning lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw 20d high and now at 20d low as expected, but the intermediate term cycles are not very clear....

Week 6 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low still not clear - either in June on time or late September the case with one extra 20w cycle so that time adjusts for the missing one from last year.

Weekly preview

I would say the B-wave(from the late September low) is dead - too steep and too big. The question is if we have c/Z or a/c/Z. From pattern perspective it is almost perfect - equality reached c=a for Z, three zig-zags from the March low with roughly the same length. From cycle perspective another few weeks will look better, but this is not a guarantee(the last chart).
Maybe we will see some topping for a few weeks and one more test of the trend line(daily chart)....

Market breadth is troubling for the bullish case. It behaves like we have transition from bull to bear market.
In bull market the indicators touch oversold levels and shoot up in overbought territory and stay there. In Bear markets the opposite occurs.
Currently we have vertical move "400 pt rally in a month. Fastest bull market in history since the 2020 low"... cheering and what is market breadth doing? Not even touched overbought levels. Bullish Percentage is below 70, McClellan Summation Index is below 500, Percent of Stocks above MA50 is below 75, Advance-Decline Issues is not even close to overbought.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like impulse, but looking the DJ you can see another double zig-zag - https://invst.ly/wimw4.
Waiting to see the reaction reversal or b-wave. (it is "or a/c/Z")

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z from the March.2020 low.
Testing the trend lines and two legs higher with the same size for Z. Waiting to see the reaction.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish".

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change signs of weakening, at least short term top.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs and divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70 like double top.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low so far... double bottoms short term and intermediate term.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high and heading lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - not easy to spot following the indicator below this is the short term count - 5w high followed by a 5w low and now at 20d high, next we should see a few days correction for a 20d low.

Week 5 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low still not clear - either in June on time or late Septembar the case with one extra 20w cycle so that time adjust for the missing one from last year.
Last week wrote if it is not B-wave it is bearish because it is heading higher into the sixth 40w cycle high or 4y high. This is how it looks like - 4 perfect hits one a few weeks earlier and the current one. Perfect hit is in a few weeks. jpnor this is mid-December I can not twist it as a low....