Weekly preview

From the November low the pattern looks like a flat on many indices.... SP500 you can find triangle or diagonal if you want, but I think this is less likely. From cycle perspective week 7 from the last high so close to the next intermediate term high and next is decline into 20w low early February.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, nearing the next intermediate term high.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - possible flat obscured by higher high in the middle of the b-wave. This last leg is too fast for triangle or diagonal it is more likely c-wave.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change more of the same.
McClellan Oscillator - positive above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal, low levels.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, in oversold teritory.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - made higher high and retracing lower. I am expecting another higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.

HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - not clear like the pattern, but at week 7 from the last high so close to 10w high.

Week 12 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September with one extra 20w cycle, alternate on time in June.

Weekly preview

Looking the cycles I see 5w high and now decline until Christmas for 5w low followed by final push higher during the holidays.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, close below MA10 but I think there will be one more high.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the most simple pattern is we have b/c/Z and one final push higher. More complex patterns - diagonal or triangle for c/Z.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change more of the same.
McClellan Oscillator - reseting after oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - made higher high and retracing lower. I am expecting another higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible 20d low and high this week and now decline into 5w low after 5w high. For complete longer term cycle is one more 20d cycle high needed.

Week 11 for the 20w cycle. The 20w cycle high is at week 16 so nearing the top. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high.

Weekly preview

We have the 10w low and now it should take roughly 3 weeks until the next intermediate term top, which should be 4y cycle high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, rising into the next intermediate term top.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - for now counting this as b/Z and another zig-zag for c/Z.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
I am expect one more high before significant decline - and this is playing out now.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow. MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - in the middle of a move up.
McClellan Oscillator - reseting after oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - made higher high and retracing lower. I am expecting another higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I think the 5w high was last week and now we should see 20d high next week. Intermediate term we have 10w low and now higher into 10w high.

Week 10 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September with one extra 20w cycle, alternate on time in June.

Weekly preview

Extremely volatile week, NYSE/DJ joined the DAX this decline looks more like reversal. The decline is too deep and faster than the previous wave up. Again the tech indices+SP500 could make higher high and other indices lower high.

Short term waiting for the next week to see if we have 10w low. After that we should see a few weeks higher for the holidays. Overall the indices are at important top 4y cycle high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, it is a better idea to wait for the next high if you want to sell.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - possible double zig-zag lower. Waiting for more price action - it could be b/Z or a of something bigger.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
I am expect one more high before significant decline - it could be higher high with divergence or lower high.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - tricky it could be 10w low and turn from oversold levels or the markets are in bearish mode and the oversold levels will be tested one more time for 10w low in 1-2 weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - bounce from oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - bounce up.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher high, waiting for higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower low and bounce from oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the cycle model on the chart below has good looking high-low sequence. In this case we should see 5w high soon and final decline for 10w low. Alternate this week we saw the 10w low.

Week 9 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September with one extra 20w cycle, alternate on time in June.