Weekly preview

Volatile week, but nothing really new... some sideways move which looks corrective and this should be 5 week high. The same like last week - expecting intermediate term low soon and higher into 10w high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, we should see soon intermediate term low.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, close to potential major top. Intermediate term close to intermediate term low. Trades depending on your time frame.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - no new information so the same patterns.... looking at RSI daily it should be an a-b-c pattern from the November high. Part of what is this a-b-c, b/Z or something else is more difficult question.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
Struggling below MA200 and the trend line not so bullish. Bearish(red) and bullish(green) outcome shown for the coming bounce.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week, the indices should be close to a low, but there is room for another decline.
McClellan Oscillator - bounce from oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - levels where usually an intermediaterm low is seen.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - nearing oversold levels.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low followed by higher high... trend reversal???
Advance-Decline Issues - oversold level reached the sell off is showing strength.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like second 20d cycle high for 5w high. After that we should see something like one week lower for 10w low(probably 20w low too).

Week 17 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options.

Weekly preview

The decline is not a surprise... but it is getting too big and it could be impulse. It has the same size like the biggest decline the X-wave from September 2020 and if we see impulse lower it will hint reversal.
How to justify something else:
- if we see impulse lower - huge expanded flat b/Z wave for a flat Z. The problem with that is sub-wave c/b/Z is bigger than primary X-wave.
- try to count impulse and this is wave 4 zig-zag or triangle because it has to alternate with wave 2 from September 2020 which was a flat. The problem with that is I can not see an impulse and I do not think cycles support such pattern... unless the 4y cycle consist of two 2y cycles instead of three 18m cycles.
For now waiting to see how the decline will be completed with impulse or zig-zag. I guess up into FOMC and final low for this decline.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, heading into intermediate term low in the next 1-2 weeks.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - waiting to see if we have impulse or zig-zag lower. In the case of impulsee more likely reversal(red), the bulls can hope for expanded flat b/Z(yellow) and Z-wave flat.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
The middle trendline and MA200 reached, waiting to see if impulse will be completed or not.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences and RSI breaking the trendline. Usually this means reversal or one final high.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - heading lower and there is more room for further decline.
McClellan Oscillator - oversold level reeached.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - heading lower, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - heading lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher after higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower,oversold level reeached.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like we have 10w cycle with three longer 20d cycles instead four 20d cycles.... and the 5w low is not well visible. My guess up untill FOMC for 5w high(on time fourth week) and final low first week of February.

Week 16 for the 20 week cycle.
Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out.

Weekly preview

Nothing interesting this week some corrective price action, so nothing new to add.... just waiting for more price action.
This confirms my view from last week that the indices are in the middle of some pattern.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signall, expect something lower for a few weeks.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - nothing new, still watching the same patterns.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change from last week.
McClellan Oscillator - resetting lower, close to zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signall.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signall.
Bullish Percentage - spike above 70 and turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - spike above 75 and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low and divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - hit ovebought and retracing lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - looks like 5w low on Monday and now 20d high in the next days.

Week 15 for the 20w cycle? Looking Market Breadth suprising 20w low early December is possible - this is the case with 18m low on time in July.
Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low now 50/50 either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out.

Weekly preview

No clear pattern, market breadth showing some strength, cycles - either December was 20w low or we have mature cycle at week 14. All this means the indices are in the middle of something and we will see more up and down for another 2 months.
Next we should see decline for about 3 weeks and 10w cycle low.
"Crazy" patterns if the 18m low was in June/July - https://invst.ly/x214s or this https://invst.ly/x246i we can only wait for the next move.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signall, expect something lower for a few weeks.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - nothing new, no clear pattern... I think the indices are in the middle of something. Clear zig-zag higher so ED,triangle or b-wave of a flat.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
Obvious MACD/RSI divergence...

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - showing some strength, like something started early December.
McClellan Oscillator - resetting lower, close to zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signall.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signall.
Bullish Percentage - spike above 70 and turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - spike above 75 and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low and divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - hit ovebought and retracing lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - This should be 10w high. The second 5w high seems to consist of three shorter 20d cycles. Next we should see decline into 10w low.

Week 14 for the 20w cycle? Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low now 50/50 eiter late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out.

Weekly preview

HAPPY NEW YEAR, I wish you good luck and successful trading in 2022 !!!!!!!

All I can see is corrective pattern higher, just look at RSI daily/weekly - a-b-c/flat. Short term one more high is possible before a decline in January.

For the big picture there is two options this is c/Z running or something more crazy - still in b/Z like this. Why such complex pattern - the current 20w cycle is already 13 weeks long so the decline will last 3-5 weeks in January, then we will see several weeks higher test of the high in February/early March 10/20w? high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, close to the next intermediate term high.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I still see zig-zag higher which looks like some b-wave... lets wait and see what happens to the downside.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
Obvious MACD/RSI divergence...

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - McClellan are now positive, but all the other indicators with divergences after the new high.
McClellan Oscillator - positive above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence and below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence and below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low and divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high and divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - week 8 for the 10w high, last week I have shown the case with completing cycle/pattern. This is more bullish case with one more 20d high in a few days.

Week 13 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September with one extra 20w cycle, alternate on time in June.