Weekly preview

I have the feeling the 20w low was in January on schedule and since then some kind of b-wave is running close to completition and 20w high. This is how cycles look best and RSI hints such pattern.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, now heading into intermediate term high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top which will be tested one more time. Intermediate term - nearing a high.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - two options the important low was in January with 20w low on time and since then 2/b-wave running which is nearing the 20w high. The other option is the low was in March and this is the first leg of a zig-zag higher.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y(yellow) with complex double zig-zag for Y=W, alternate we have Z-wave(red).
Look at RSI - it often shows the pattern more clear and it looks like a-b-c for 2/b-wave so far.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing up, but only a few touched overbought level, so there is no confirmation for a strength... so far confirming b-wave.
McClellan Oscillator - small divergence after hitting overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - touched overbought level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - reseting lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher, but has not reached overbought level to confirm strength..


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the strength means either we saw important cycle low or completing important cycle high - I think it is the later.
Second 5w cycle higher running to complete at least 10w high more likely 20w high.

Week 8 for the 20w cycle if we use the model on the chart above. There is room for interpretation at the moment.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options. In both cases I expect highs echo from 2018.

Quick update

Quick update - short said messy pattern and cycles have room for interpetation.

Where do you start counting from the high in November or January and where do you put the low late February or mid March?
Depending on this there is different combinations.

In this case we have extended 20w cycle 22 weeks with a low in March.

If we stick to the rules no extended cycles and adjust the pattern accordingly we have the 20w low in January and the decline is not complete...

Weekly preview

Nothing new this week. It looks like 20d low and now higher for 20d high probably around FOMC.
Still expecting one more low and then higher.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top which will be tested one more time. Intermediate term - 1-2 weeks for intermediate term low.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - still waiting to see which pattern will play out... the outcome is the same.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y(yellow) with complex double zig-zag for Y=W, alternate we have Z-wave(red).
It seems that we should see one more low before turning higher.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week... I guess one more low with divergence.
McClellan Oscillator - oscillating around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - trying to turn up.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - bouncing around oversold level 25.
Fear Indicator VIX - looks like a wedge and time to retrace.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - It looks like we have 20d low and now higher into 20d high or even completed... after that we should see intermediate term low 10w low.

Week 14 for the 20w cycle(for the case with 18 low in July).
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options. In both cases I expect highs echo from 2018.

Weekly preview

Sideways week at first nothing interesting, but I think in the next few weeks we will have clarity about cycles and pattern.
I still think we saw the high now we need to pin point the 18m low(July or October) and the high(November or early January)... and this should be possible in the next few weeks.


TRADING
Trading trigger - no clear signal a lot of crossings typical for sideways pattern.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top which will be tested one more time. Intermediate term - should be more clear next week.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - possible double zig-zag from the November high(white) or diagonal from the late December high(yellow).
P.S. the other scenario triangle is shown on the daily and cycle chart... not to overload the hourly chart.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y(yellow) with complex double zig-zag for Y=W, alternate we have Z-wave(red).
Waiting to see which pattern will play out.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned up and starting to show strength. Worst case should be one more low with divergence.
McClellan Oscillator - retracing higher.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up.
Bullish Percentage - turned up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - tested the 25 level again and turned up.
Fear Indicator VIX - looks like a wedge and time to retrace.
Advance-Decline Issues - retracing higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this week should be 10w cycle high two months from the previous significant high. Next we should see decline into 10w cycle low.

Week 13 for the 20 week cycle(for the case with 18 low in July).
Long term the indices are at 4 year cycle high. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options. In both cases I expect highs echo from 2018.

18m low in July

18m low in October