Weekly preview

Many are bearish seeing impulse lower etc. At major turning points all indices are moving in tandem and I do not see this now.
For example how do you count impulse for the DJ? The European indices do not follow lower. The move lower is too slow and this means the indices are still in the same pattern which started in March etc.

I expect to see intermediate term low 10w cycle low soon and higher for a few weeks. The short term forecast is difficult with the FED meeting next week which could cause short term volatility.



TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, nearing a low.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top. Close to intermediate term low.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - some are counting impulse, but it is more likely that we have another series of zig-zags. Very deep retracement so the possible patterns are flat and triangle.

Intermediate term - RUT how a triangle could look like.

Long term - RUT monthly I do not see impulse, I see completed double zig-zag most of the indices have this pattern, which is much worse than the b-wave I am showing.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the indices should be close to a low.
McClellan Oscillator - posible divergence after slightly oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - typical level for a low the 40-50 range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - close to the oversold level.
Fear Indicator VIX - making lower highs.
Advance-Decline Issues - making higher lows.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - expecting 5w/10w low probably next week.

Week 7 for the 20w cycle.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options.
If the 18m low was in late September than the indices are close to 40w low. The reaction from this low will confirm it or not. Currently I think the low was in the summer of 2021 on time.

Weekly preview

Last week the expectation was for move up and 5w high - we saw it this week, it is short cycle one week shorter. Now we should see decline into 10w low.... around FOMC looks interesting 8 weeks length.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, the intermediate term decline is not over.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I think the indices are in a b-wave.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
Some corrective wave up is running which is the test of the high, but first we have to see intermediate term low.

Long term - NDX seems to show more clear picture. Pattern and cycles as I see them. RSI broke the trend line and clearly says the rally from March.2020 is over and now the broken trend line should be tested.
The alternate scenario is the c-wave has already started, but it does not fit so well with cycles.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week. It looks like corrective price action and not like reversal.
McClellan Oscillator - oscillating around zero and now heading lower.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal, but nothing convincing.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, but nothing convincing.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving higher, looks like zig-zag.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it seems we have 5w high a short cycle. The 5w lows - fit best on 8th of March and 12th of April.
Next we should see decline first in 20d low then 5w/10w low.

Week 6 for the 20w cycle.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options. Currently it seems the low was in summer on time.

Weekly preview

The decline is too slow to be a reversal. It is part of the same pattern probably starting from the low in March... unless we see some unexpected shock and sharp decline.
Last week I have shown the european indices(last chart) and this is the best fitting scenario at the moment - 40w low in March and now corrective pattern higher running for a few months.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top which is tested now.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - maybe zig-zag(w) and triangle(y) for a-wave and now in the middle of a b-wave.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
Some corrective wave up is running.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week. It looks like corrective price action and not like reversal.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - trying to turn lower.
Bullish Percentage - pointing lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - weak move up.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - very weak 20d high, this means there will be more to the downside. There is no clear low for the 5w cycle either. Most likely the longer cycle 10w is dominant.
If we push the previous significant low a few days later we can have some decent sequence highs-lows. In this case we have 5w low this week and next two weeks are higher for 5w high.

Week 5 for the 20w cycle. In November RSI crossed the MA for 20w low now we see another cross higher for 20w high.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options.
The current price action is in sync with the european indices or important low in March which means 18m low in July so switched the main cycle count accordingly.

Weekly preview

We have a decline, but weak so far and it looks corrective so no confirmation. Alternate if March was important low we will see more to the upside and now the indices are in some b-wave - shown using the European indices the last chart.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top which will be tested one more time. Intermediate term - turn from intermediate term high.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - waiting to see if the yellow pattern will play out. Alternate we have another zigzag higher and now the b-wave is running(green).

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
Waiting to see how the corrective move up will play out - if it is finished or it is a bigger zig-zag.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, but it is too early to say we have intermediate term high.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned up.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower, in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw decline most likely into 5w low. Next we should see 20d high in 1-4 days.

Week 10 for the 20w cycle. In November RSI crossed the MA for 20w low now we see another cross higher for 20w high.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options. In both cases I expect two highs echo from 2018.

The alternate scenario and 18m low in July - the European indices have one clear low and not three possible lows. The best cycle count is 18m low on schedule in July and 40w low 7.5 months later again on schedule. This means the index is moving up into 40w high with average length 7-8 months there is another 2-3 months until we see this high.

Weekly preview

Now waiting to see if the analysis from last week will play out. If this is the case the indices are at 20w high and decline to a new low 40w low should follow. The alternate scenario is the low was in March and we saw this week the a-wave of a zig-zag higher.


TRADING
Trading trigger - still buy signal, which could change next week.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top which will be tested one more time. Intermediate term - turn from intermediate term high.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same pattern, waiting to see if it will play out.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
b-wave should be completing and sharp c-wave should follow.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators turned lower, trend following are still up... so waiting for confirmation if we have intermediate term high.
McClellan Oscillator - turned lower after divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - hit overbought levels.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - touched overbought level and reversed.
Fear Indicator VIX - series of higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - touched overbought level and reversed.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I think we have 20w high which divides better in 3x7w cycles instead of 2x10w.
Short term - the 20d cycle is not very clear, we should see decline into 20d/5w low.

Week 9 for the 20w cycle if we use the model on the chart above. In November RSI crossed the MA for 20w low now we see another cross higher for 20w high.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options. In both cases I expect highs echo from 2018.