Weekly preview

The expected move into 10w cycle high has been confirmed. Market breadth is signaling possible low, we have bearish 10w cycle high(in the time zone for reversal), currently impulse higher running - reversal or just c-wave of expanded flat... tough decision if we saw the low or not.
I still think we should see one more lower low to complete double zig-zag before we see reversal higher. In this case next week we should see expanded flat completed, followed by final sell off.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, the price broke above MA10 at last, but it is time to look for a high already.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term a low in a few weeks or we saw it this week.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - a-b-c double zig-zag or the move is completed - difficult call.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
The trendline is broken now waiting for a low and some kind of MA200/trend line test in summer.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - strong turn higher looks like a bottom or one more lower low with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - hit very overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up.
Bullish Percentage - turned up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up.
Fear Indicator VIX - still moving in a range.
Advance-Decline Issues - close to the overbought level, but lower high.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we should see 20d high next week and it looks like this will be the fourth one or 10w high.

Week 13 for the 20w cycle, week 34 for the 40w cycle(average length 32-36 weeks). The indices are close to intermediate term low, but we have bearish 10w cycle high so probably one more lower low.

Weekly preview

The indices are weak, I think we should see move up to complete the 10w high and final decline. The other options are continuation lower or that was the intermediate term low - looking the indicators and market breadth they are less likely.
One more 10w cycle looks too long, but one more 5w cycle to complete the decline is ok.
The Fibo projections I have measured are slightly below 3700 and 3500. Support levels are 3700 and strong one 3600.... I guess something between 3600 and 3700 is the target for the end of the correction.


TRADING
Trading trigger - still sell signal, very weak cycle high 37 days lower so after the high we should see lower low.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - one option is continuation lower for double zigzag(green) or we have not seen the 10w high and more sideways price action will follow(yellow).
Interesting if you measure the next extension levels 1.38 and 1.618 and both scenarios show the same targets.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
The trendline is broken now waiting for a low in the next few weeks and some kind of MA200/trend line test in summer.
Maybe some kind of bottoming with divergence similar to the previous low taking one month which is 5w cycle.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
The same with the indicators just pointing lower so some kind of bottoming for several weeks is expected.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - bearish no signs of a low.
McClellan Oscillator - oscillating around the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - staying in oversold territory.
Fear Indicator VIX - up and down.
Advance-Decline Issues - oscillating around the oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we have 20d high as expected and we should see in the next days or saw 20d low. It is difficult to place the 5w/10w lows with high confidence. Example four 5w cycles from the February low.

Week 12 for the 20w cycle if we count from the previous lowest low.

Weekly preview

Short term looking the pattern I think we should see bounce and one more low to complete the decline from the high in late March.
Intermediate term we have 6 weeks decline this means to expect bearish 10w high so some kind of bounce and lower low.
Long term even if you count from the January high we have 5 months lower this means to expect bearish 40w high with lower high in summer and continuation lower.
Market breadth - many in oversold territory and this happens in bear markets. The confirmation is if we see bounce and another low with divergence.

To sum up - the signs are pointing to a bounce and lower low to complete the decline then higher in summer with lower high and continuation lower in autumn.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, very weak cycle high is expected.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Nearing to intermediate term low.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - from the last high we have 5 legs lower, but it does not look like an impulse at all so it should be another double zig-zag.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
The trendline is broken now waiting for a low in the next few weeks and some kind of MA200/trend line test in summer.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - many hit oversold levels, which usually happens in bear markets, and now we have bounce higher.
McClellan Oscillator - bounce from slightly oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal, very oversold.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - oversold level reached.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oversold level reached.
Fear Indicator VIX - around the previous high.
Advance-Decline Issues - oversold level hit, but still higher low.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we have 20d low and next week we should see 20d high. The longer cycles - there is room for interpretation where to pinpoint them.

Week 15 for the 20w cycle. Changed the chart to fit the pattern.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options.
What we are seeing makes sense if the 18m low was in late September and now heading into 40w low. The European indices have very clear low in March most likely 40w low, which means the 18m low was in the summer of 2021.
Very confusing the pattern can diverge between the indices, but I have not seen the cycles to diverge.

Weekly preview

Very volatile price action around FOMC - it was expected. The indices are still trying to find a bottom... maybe we saw it is difficult to say. Overall the indices are close or hit 10w low and next we should see 10w cycle high, which looks very weak at the moment.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, very weak cycle high is expected 2/3 of the time 27 days it is moving lower.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top. Close to intermediate term low.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - not clear what exactly is going on. Very deep retracement so the possible patterns are flat and triangle... or the decline is not over.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
SP500 trying to find bottom, after that we should see the completition of some kind of b-wave - either in the b-wave(white) already or it will start soon(green).

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from 2009 was completed and it will get very ugly.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - look like nearing a bottom, the sell off looks exhausted.
McClellan Oscillator - turned below zero, expecting to see divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower higher low so far.
Fear Indicator VIX - lower high.
Advance-Decline Issues - higher low.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - expecting to see 10w low soon or we saw it already.

Week 8 for the 20w cycle.
Long term we have 4 year cycle high and transition from up to down. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options.
If the 18m low was in late September the indices should be close to 40w low. The European indices have very clear low most likely 40w low, which means the 18m low was in the summer of 2021.