Weekly preview

Nothing new to add - the indices are at 10w high which could be 40w high. Alternate this is a-wave of a bigger corrective pattern.

Last week I was sure it will take more time to see the high because of indicators/breadth etc. Now I do not think so this kind of strength is typical for the cycle high on top of this see the comments - cycles do not work, maybe it is 2020 again.... it smells too much like the expected high anyway we will see what happens in the next few weeks.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, close to the next high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Possible intermediate term high.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like double zig-zag with c-wave extending 1.618 the length of the a-wave. If it is part of bigger corrective pattern or not? We will know in a few weeks.

Intermediate term - One corrective pattern should be completing at the trend line so this could be the top or it is part of a bigger corrective pattern.
In the case of bigger corrective pattern the top should have been in January and we have double zig-zag lower and in the middle of a B-wave for the 40w high.... after this week a doubt this scenario.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - reached overbought levels.
McClellan Oscillator - overbought.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - at the overbought level 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - at the overbought level 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - heading lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - overbought level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 10w high, next should be decline until mid-August for 10w low.

Week 30/36 for the 40w cycle high (from January/November). If you count from November this should be the high. If you count from January it will take more time - the end of August or later.

Weekly preview

Higher for c-wave as expected. Next we should see 10w high at the latest around FOMC and decline for three weeks.

If you count from the high in November this is the 40w high. If you count from January this is the first leg of a corrective move higher, next is a few weeks lower for 10w low b-wave and final leg up for the 40w high.
The intuition tells me it is the second - more time for market breadth to reset, the weekly indicators like histogram to move into positive teritory etc. We will know for sure when we see the speed of the decline when it starts...
P.S. it sounds bullish, but this will mean long move B-wave and the whole decline until mid-June is A-wave and simillar in size and length decline C-wave should follow... bigger than I have expected so far.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, close to the next high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term low in June and in the middle of corrective move up.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - a-b-c is completed or close to completition. In thext weeks we will see if it is part of a bigger pattern(green) or not(red).

Intermediate term - One zig-zag is completed so it could be a top or bigger corrective pattern is possible.
In the case of bigger corrective pattern the top should have been in January and we have double zig-zag lower and now B-wave for the 40w high.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
The histogram should move into positive teritory, which means higher for weeks.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing higher, no signs of a high so far.
McClellan Oscillator - reached overbought level and turned lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - breaking lower from the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 10w high, next should be decline until mid-August for 10w low.

Week 29/35 for the 40w cycle high (from January/November). If you count from November this should be the high. If you count from January it will take more time - the end of August or later.

Weekly preview

Lower as expected, probably we saw 5w low. Next we should see move higher and 10w high around FOMC.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal. More MA10 crosses down and up - some kind of sideways pattern is running.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term low in June.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the b-wave is completed if we see surprise lower it is just more complex shown on the chart.

Intermediate term - probably in c-wave of 4/x/B what ever it is.

Long term - the DAX looks like double zig-zag which should complete in November with 18m low. The US indices look differently I guess they will synchronize at this comming low.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - down and up... nothing interesting.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - neutral.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - neutral.
Bullish Percentage - around the oversold level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - around the oversold level.
Fear Indicator VIX - in the lower end of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - probably this was 5w low, next is turn higher into 10w high.

Week 28/34 for the 40w cycle high (from January/November). If you count from November we should see the high around the end of July . If you count from January the high should be in the second half of August.

Weekly preview

Higher as expected... next week we should see a decline and 5w low. It looks like some b-wave running and with the next decline it should be completed.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy sugnal, wait for the next low in a week if you want to buy.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Possible intermediate term low in June.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the two cases shown... the green one still looks more likely.

Intermediate term - probably in b-wave of 4/x/B what ever it is.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are positive... but nothing special.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - still in the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - as expected higher for 20d high, next week we should see decline into 5w low.

Week 27/33 for the 40w cycle high (from January/November). If you count from November around the end of July we should see the high. If you count from January the high should be around the end of August.

Weekly preview

Red week with deep retracement, but it does not feel like reversal it takes too long. I think it is some b-wave lasting until mid-July for 5w low.


TRADING
Trading trigger - another cross lower and higher, usualy this happens when sideways pattern is developing.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Possible intermediate term low in June.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the two cases shown... the green one feels more likely.

Intermediate term - Probably in b-wave of 4/x/B what ever it is.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower... too early to say for a new low or just b-wave.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - neutral.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - still in the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - turn lower right on schedule for 5w high and now 20d low. Next we should see 20d high and 5w low around mid-July. The bullish case is shown with higher low.

Week 26/32 for the 40w cycle high (from January/November). One scenario with 40w lows early October and on schedule in May... just following the 16-18 weeks rhytm for the 20w cycle. It will be confirmed if we see some sideways pattern completed in August.