Weekly preview

The "up" move is just sideways mess. It is interesting what happens short term(second chart)... instead of a-b-c it could be an impulse - now wave 4, then lower low and retracement 10w high.
Intermediate term - so far the speed of the move lower is too slow for reversal which confirms the patterns I follow or to expect one more move up before the trend lower from 2022 to resume. In several weeks we will know for sure.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - lower until late January/early February.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - some sideways mess for x-wave before continuation lower(white) or surprise this is impulse(red) with one more wave lower.
It will be a "surprise" because I have not seen clean impulse for a long time.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. The last leg up is choppy it fits as c/B of a triangle or a/B of a flat, so far the current leg lower is too slow and choppy for reversal so d/B or b/B.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are declining... in the middle of a move lower.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero, it looks like short term divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - declining in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - declining in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - there is no much fear... does not really move higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - hovering around the oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it is a sideways mess and somewhere in this mess we have 5w low and probably next week 5w high.
I am thinking maybe we can count one 10w cycle in the middle and 2x5w cycles left and right of it. The same pattern played out with the previous 20w cycle... in this case the arrows show where we are in this time not price pattern.

Week 11 for the 20w cycle.
The most obvious 18m low is in October - this will fit with flat B-wave. I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this will fit with triangle B-wave.

Weekly preview

The market follows the forecasted path so not much new to add. Next week should be higher and January lower.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - lower until late January/early February.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the market followed the projection and now watching for a retracement and one more leg lower.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. The leg up is choppy it fits as c/B of a triangle or a/B of a flat.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are declining... in the middle of a move lower.
McClellan Oscillator - short term divergence pointing higher.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - declining in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - declining in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - there is no much fear... does not really move higher
Advance-Decline Issues - hovering around the oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this week should have been 20d cycle low. Next week we should see a high for 20d/5w cycle high... no surprises so far.

Week 10 for the 20w cycle.
The most obvious 18m low is in October - this will fit with flat B-wave. I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this will fit with triangle B-wave.

Weekly preview

Nice rounding top, next week we should see short term low then higher for the holidays. The 20w cycle is turning lower and in January after the holidays should be the acceleration phase - the biggest decline. I am watching the last week of January +-1 week for potential intermediate term low. This is my plan for the moment and when we see the decline we will know more about the pattern - if the B-wave is completed or not.




TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - lower until late January/early February.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like impulse lower which should be completed in the next few days then a retracement higher for the holidays.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. This leg up is choppy it fits as c/B of a triangle or a/B of a flat.
The alternate option B is completed as a flat - not impossible it works for DJ, but SPX/NDX look very weak.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - all turned lower with sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - declining below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - declining below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - declining below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned up, not much fear and volatility for the moment.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw 20d high, now declining and we should see 20d low next week then higher for the holidays.

Week 9 for the 20w cycle low. Two red weeks in a row and RSI crossed the MA - it looks like the 20w cycle turned lower.
Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this is the low which fits with the pattern I follow.

Weekly preview

Currently I think we saw the high 20w high and we should see two months lower for the next intermediate term low 20w low.
Short term my guess was lower into FOMC probably 10w low and higher into the holidays for 5w high - so far this is what we are seeing, lets see if it will continue to work next week.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high and now lower for two months.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - most likely we saw the top, leg lower which looks like impulse - if we see a lower low next week it will be confirmed.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. Removed the most bullish option it will not fit if you want to find common pattern with the other indices. The common pattern is something like flat and the B-wave is completed.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, we have possible intermediate term high.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - declining, in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible 20d high or "surprise" the high is in a few days around FOMC. It is bearish high so we should see lower low then the Christmas rally for 5w high.
The highs count good, but as I wrote a few times it will be difficult to pinpoint the 10w low.... the current low is the best candidate.

Week 8 for the 20w cycle low. Most likely we saw the 20w high waiting for confirmation next week.
Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this is the low which fits with the pattern I follow.

Weekly preview

Now we have something which looks like close to completed pattern - one more high will complete double zig-zag for the second leg of a bigger zig-zag and week 16 for the 20w high(average 16-18 weeks). The top should be close next week. Could it stretch until Christmas - more likely not... maybe FOMC. I guess lower mid-December FOMC and test of the high the so called Christmas rally.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal... the count is not very clear. The daily cycle corresponds to the 10w cycle and it is a mess at the moment.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - close to the next high.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - corrective pattern difficult to count it. The moves are zig-zags so we should see small move down-up to complete the whole pattern. This should be c/B for completed correction or the third leg of a triangle.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. Removed the most bullish option it will not fit if you want to find common pattern with the other indices. The common pattern is something like flat and the B-wave is completing. If you step back and look at the big picture you will see move down for 5.5 months and sideways move for 5.5 months. So there is no reversal just digesting the decline from 2022 and better close for the year... better bonuses for wall street.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some small divergences, still strong levels.
McClellan Oscillator - double divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, overbought level reached.
Bullish Percentage - overbought level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very overbought level.
Fear Indicator VIX - complacency is back, at the trend line connecting the previous 3 lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - weakness short term divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - not very clear... it looks like we have 5w low and strong reaction and this should be 10w low too. The highs 20d cycle high in a few days expected and this should be the 20w high... according to the pattern analysis.

Week 16 for the 20w cycle high very close to the top of this move. Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June - where the strong reaction started.