Weekly preview

Decline into 10w low has begun, as I wrote do not expect crash. I suspect we have 18m cycle which will count better as three longer 20w cycles 5-5.5 months each. In this case the next low should be around mid-August... now waiting to see how the decline will develop.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal just triggered, the trend lines were broken most likely decline into the 10w low has begun.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - decline into mid-August expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the move up is over count, double zig-zag or impulse it does not matter. Something lower begun, it is too early to forecast pattern.

Intermediate term - double zig-zag w-x-y/B(white) from October completed. If you allign the pattern with important cycle lows/highs the more likely pattern is zig-zag w-x-y(yellow) with triangle X and inside triangle e-wave.
Waiting to see how the decline will develop.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, but nothing dramatic so far.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - very high complacency.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower, in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d low and next week we should see 20d high. I bet on extended 5w cycle part of extended 10w/20w cycles.

Week 4 for the 20w cycle. We do not have clear 40w low... probably this three longer 10w cycles are part of something bigger. Maybe instead 2x40w cycles we will see 3x20w longer cycles 5-5.5 months each overall 15-16 months which is the average length for the 18m cycle. If we see well defined low around mid-August than we will have two of them and it will be a confirmation.

Weekly preview

So much emotions and excitement, retail traders buying stocks and calls like crazy.... buying the top as always.
Short term the current wave higher has now the same length as the previous leg up. Intermediate term this is at least 10w high so next is decline into 10w low. My opinion is this is a top of higher degree - the top of the B-wave.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, day 42 at intermediate term high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - reversal into 4y cycle low expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the c-wave(yellow) moved higher from 0,62 to 1 extension. I have not seen impulses for a long time instead double zig-zags everywhere so I guess it is double zig-zag (a-b-c white). If you believe it is an impulse than it is fifth wave extension finished or one more squigle with 5=1to3.

Intermediate term - double zig-zag w-x-y/B(white) from October completing. If you allign the pattern with important cycle lows/highs the more likely pattern is zig-zag w-x-y(yellow) with triangle X and inside triangle e-wave. I have shown it as one of the possible patterns just the e-wave is sideways move not decline. Cycles fit better with top now so no alternate B-wave high after the summer.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - with vertical move higher I would expect to see very overbought levels to confirm strength instead the indicators are below the overbought levels with divergence. It is not a surprise very narrow market only a few tech stocks pulling the indices higher.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero, short term divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, double divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - rising, but nothing convincing... below overbought level no strength.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - rising, but nothing convincing... below overbought level with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - up and down looks like bottoming.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower below the overbought level, double divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d high which is at least 10w high and I think it is 40w high. Next is decline into 5w and 10w low.

Week 3 for the current 20w cycle. I think we saw 40w low around the end of May and now at 40w high. I wrote many times it divides better as three longer 10w cycles. It does not make much sense to count week 35 expecting 40w low when the price is moving in the opposite direction.

Weekly preview

Nothing new to add, topping for 20w high completing this week the last 20d cycle. Looking the short term pattern the 10w low was the end of May as suggested last week. A lot of complacency, extreme greed, new "bull market", the usual stupid comments from emotionaly unstable "traders"... it smells like important top - probably completed B-wave w-x-y from the October low.
Again I do not expect crash in summer because the next decline should last only 4-6 weeks. It should get interesting in autumn after the next 20w high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, day 47 at intermediate term high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - lower 4-5 weeks expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like two impulses with long sideways move for b-wave in the middle.
Look at RSI broken trend line and testing it with divergence.

Intermediate term - simple pattern w-x-y/B from October completed. Alternate something complex for the B-wave completing in September - example mega triangle from June.2022, or something else.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - extreme greed, a lot of complacency, indicators pointing higher but weak.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - complacency higher than the ATH.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading to overbought level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d high which will complete 20w high.

Week 13 for the 20w cycle low, week 18 for the 20w cycle high. The cycles of higher degree are not perfectly clear.

Weekly preview

The market chose the simple pattern to complete the y-wave. Now we have w-x-y completing from the October low. Most likely this is the top of the B-wave. As I wrote in comments do not expect the end of the world. We should see several weeks lower first half of July then higher into August. Tech stocks probably higher high, NYSE,DJ,RUT lower high and SPX is usually in the middle - I would say testing the top with lower high.
For the record this is the first time since October with possible B-wave completed. Untill now I was waiting patiently and now we have it possible completed pattern with multiple divergences MACD/RSI and 18m high which is overdue. Only market breadth is neutral+20w cycle right translated that is why the scenario described above - first warning shot and after the summer really getting going.

This is important high for sure, everybody is very smart again and bought the lows and will exit on time - the market will give them a sign.... sure good luck. Deja vu I am listening the same bullshit since 2018 when lengthy topping process started.
Curious where were all this smart guys in October when I was predicting important low? Why all this smart guys like LadyS apear only at tops and never at bottoms? Simple they are sheeple running with the herd - afraid at the bottom and feeling strong with the masses at the top.
Making money makes you feel good the same chemistry like drug addicted and I destroy their happiness telling it will not last. This will repeat over and over and it will never change.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, day 42 at intermediate term high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - lower 4-6 weeks expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like another double zig-zag for wave-y and completing w-x-y.
It can extend if 24th of May(white b) is the end of the correction shifting x yellow to the right and the indices are in the middle of y (see short term cycles).

Intermediate term - w-x-y/B from October completed. Alternate mega triangle from June with the expected moves in summer.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher, most of them in the middle of their ranges.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - neutral, in the middle of the range.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - complacency again, values like at the ATH.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d high which is at least 5w and 10w high. From SP500 perspective it should be 20w high, but if you look at NYSE/DJ the 10w low was later the end of May now higher into 10w high and the decline into 20w low already running. I will look closer when I have time and write in the comments.

Week 12 for the 20w cycle low, week 17 for the 20w cycle high... or should we look at NYSE? The cycles of higher degree are not perfectly clear.