Weekly preview

From pattern perspective the one from last week(see hourly chart) is still possible if you look at NDX/SPX/DJI, but if you take a look at NYSE/RUT/DJT/XVG you will see pretty obvious a-b-c lower with the c-wave running.
From cycle perspective in the first case expecting 10w high and continuation lower in the second scenario the indices are close to 20w low.

If you want to see the real pattern and not skewed picture of the market by heavy weighted tech stocks you look at NYSE/XVG. This means the more likely scenario is a-b-c lower and 20w low in a week or two. Visualy shown with RSP - equaly weighted SP500.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low expected in a week or two.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the first options B-wave of a flat, the second in a c-wave(red).

Intermediate term - RSP - equaly weighted SP500. Two zig-zags with triangle in the middle. The low of the x-wave is at week 34 which is perfect timing for the 40w cycle low(average length 32-36 weeks). Pattern and cycle fit perfect.
Now a-b-c lower and 20w low expected.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - sell signals, no signs of a fear or a bottom.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing lower, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oversold level.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - looks like double bottom.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - there is no clear 10w low, it looks like 20w cycle consisting of three longer 5w cycles. We should see pop higher for 20d high and final 20d cycle to complete 20w cycle.

Week 17 for the 20w cycle. Explained above so following this model. Not a big difference with the previous one, the low is still expected in January/early February. It is more about where you put the 40w/20w lows.

Weekly preview

Nothing new to add - we saw 20d high completed as a b-wave zig-zag. Now we should see decline and 5w low next week. FOMC next week so it could be the expected low. If I am wrong bigger decline has begun.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle. Intermediate term - higher into the second half of September.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - pullback into FOMC and higher to complete the pattern.

Intermediate term - some kind of w-x-y/B or a-b-c/B, at the end only the labels are different. Now turned lower and most likely the C-wave is running.
Next we should see intermediate top and bigger decline.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - look very weak barely moved higher.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - looks like double bottom.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this should be 20d high and a few days lower for a 5w low will fit good.

Week 10/4 for the 20w cycle. Visually I expect 18m cycle consisting of three longer 20w cycles(week 4 of the third). On the chart above I will stick to the theory and count four 20w cycles(week 10).
The highs do not have average length too. I think we have 4y cycle high consisting of 2 cycles instead of 3x18m cycles like the previous one 2018-2022 with a high in the middle.

Weekly preview

Lower as expected, it should continue for anorher 1-2 weeks.
From the October.2022 low we have intermediate term low every two and a half months overall four times. I think this are 10w lows, the last one in mid-August. So I expect 10w high the second half of September and 10w low the end of October.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle. Intermediate term - higher into the second half of September.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I expect zig-zag lower now in b/B.

Intermediate term - some kind of w-x-y/B or a-b-c/B, at the end only the labels are different. Now turned lower and most likely the C-wave is running.
Alternate this current move up is impulse to complete 5/c/B.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, but I think it is short term.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - up and down... long bottoming process.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I think we should see 20d high followed by 5w low.

Week 9/3 for the 20w cycle. Visually I expect 18m cycle consisting of three longer 20w cycles(week 3 of the third). On the chart above I will stick to the theory and count four 20w cycles(week 9).
The highs do not have average length too. I think we have 4y cycle high consisting of 2 cycles instead of 3x18m cycles like the previous one 2018-2022 with a high in the middle.

Weekly preview

We have a-b-c higher one month after the previous high so this should be 5w high and correction into 5w low should follow. Then another up leg and 10w high the second half of September.
The big question to expect a higher high or not - I do not know. Lets see first the expected short term move lower.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle. Intermediate term - higher into the second half of September.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I see a-b-c lower and a-b-c higher - next we should see something lower. With some fantasy it could be impulse lower and to the upside it could be 1-2-3... as I wrote not a big believer in this impulse counts.

Intermediate term - some kind of w-x-y/B or a-b-c/B, at the end only the labels are different. Now turned lower and most likely the C-wave is running.
Alternate this current move up is impulse to complete 5/c/B.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - declining sharply.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - looks like 5w high than we should see decline into 5w low. It is longer than the usual 14 days for the 20d cycle and 5 weeks for the 5w cycle so alternate it was a week ago and we have one more 20d cycle to complete the 10w high - this corresponds to the impulse pattern shown on the second chart.

Week 8/2 for the 20w cycle. Visually I expect 18m cycle consisting of three longer 20w cycles(week 2 of the third). On the chart above I will stick to the theory and count four 20w cycles(week 8).
The highs do not have average length too. I think we have 4y cycle high consisting of 2 cycles instead of 3x18m cycles like the previous one 2018-2022 with a high in the middle.