Weekly preview

The same like last week - short term waiting for confirmation if this is wave 4 and the final wave started alternate the top is in.
Intermediate term if you count from the last low we have week 30 and the 40w cycle should be making a low instead we have a high. So most likely the market continues with the shorter 40w cycles. This means the next low should be in the second half of July and the important low around the elections.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - close to 18m high then lower into 18m low
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the low this week could be w4 low. In this case after extended third wave most common target is 5=1 around 5360.

Intermediate term - if we see completed impulse than this is the top if not it is just b-wave. The equally weighted index still has not made higher high so it depends on the pattern.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower with double divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - double divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower at 70 with double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range, with double divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - double bottom.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the count from last week seems to work so 5w low and next week 10w high.

It does not look like the cycles are back to average length. This is 18m high and if you look back from the 4y high the two 18m cycles divide better in three 20-25 weeks long cycles not in two.
The lows - it looks like we have two shorter 40w cycles and one with average length. It is week 30 and the 40w cycle should be making a low instead we have a high so more likely we have another short 40w cycle. This will be confirmed if we see the next low in July or later.
Overall this is 18m high next is decline into 18m low most likely around the elections in the USA in November... less likely to extend into January-March.2025

Someone asked about bitcoin... I have looked at it closely and it seems bitcoin has pretty regular cycles and high correlation with the indices.
Intermediate term next important high September/October, next 40w low January/February 2025.
Long term 4y high the second half of 2025 at the same time we should see 4y high for the indices too.

Not a very long history, but the 4y cycle highs(red) and lows(black) seem to occur regularly so far.

The 40w cycle lows and highs(from the last 4y high and low) running 8-9 months.

Weekly preview

Interesting if this move up will complete as impulse or just another zig-zag. I bet this is just a zig-zag... I do not buy this impulse counts, very extended cycles etc. It will take a few more days, but that is it.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - intermediate term high and a few months lower.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - 2,62 extension, I have not seen such clean impulse for years... who knows maybe this time it will play out.

Intermediate term - zig-zag testing the top.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - double divergences...
McClellan Oscillator - divergence and turned lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with double divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - touching overbought level 70 with double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very weak with double divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - touched overbought level and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the lows with divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the 20d cycles are not very clear, we should see 5w cycle low and a few days later 10w high.... or this is the high.

Week 29 for the 40w cycle. Probably 20w low at week 20 in March and expected 40w cycle low in June/July. As I wrote many times visualy it will look like three extended 10w cycles. This is 18 month high with divergences.... just saying for those with the ullusions that all is great.

Weekly preview

The indices are moving higher into 10w high currently week 6. If the pattern is a-b-c it should be completed, but one more 20d cycle to complete the 10w high will look better... than the pattern will change to the usual double zig-zag w-x-y.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal... very extended cycles in both directions count easier.
Analysis - intermediate term high and a few months lower.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the c-wave now with 1,618 extension or it could be the usual w-x-y.

Intermediate term - zig-zag testing the top.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - positive, but it does not look like reversal.
McClellan Oscillator - close to overbought.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - close to overbought.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the lows again.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d high next we should see 20d low. Heading higher into 10w high, visually three extended 10w cycles count easier.

Week 28 for the 40w cycle. Probably 20w low at week 20 in March and expected 40w cycle low in June. As I wrote many times visualy it will look like three extended 10w cycles. The indices are at 18m high, those who think all is fine we saw the low for the year will be disappointed.

Weekly preview

The correction continues it is more complex than simple zig-zag. The next expected high is early next week.... unless it mutates again to something even more complex.


TRADING
Trading trigger - neutral signal, oscillating around the MA.
Analysis - intermediate term high and a few months lower will follow.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - possible corrective pattern a-b-c with b-wave triangle. Alternate w-wave zig-zag and now in x-wave.

Intermediate term - intermediate term top and the first wave lower.... a few months lower should follow.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - in a sell mode, taking a breath at the moment.
McClellan Oscillator - oscillating around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher, close to overbought.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low and now close to 20d high. Probably slightly extended 5w cycle high, alternate complex corrective pattern until the second half of May for 10w high.

Week 27 for the 40w cycle. Probably 20w low at week 20 in March and expected 40w cycle low in June.
Speculation if the current 18m cycle looks like the previous one with five cycles - at least the first two cycles seem to have the same length.