Weekly preview

Quick 200 points lower not a surprise. Short term there is more to the downside, long term this is part of a long topping process.

Showing below long term charts of other indices. The AI bubble/"magnificent 7" skewed SPX pattern and cycles.
Looking at other indices you will see two zig-zags higher w-x-y with tops right on schedule for 18m cycle highs. The high was late March currently in b-wave next is decline c-wave and 40w low followed by 40w high around the elections in the US.
Should we count different pattern/cycles for SPX? - I do not know, I would say at least cycles should be the same.... pattern only if we see very strong c-wave lower.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - important top which could be the price high for the 4y cycle.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - 4 legs so far... waiting for more price action to confirm zig-zag or impulse.

Intermediate term - reached support the price and RSI trend line(weekly) - I expect brake lower after short living bounce
Two Fibo levels of different degrees reached - very high probability the double zig-zag from October.2022 is completed.

Long term - DAX/DJ/NYSE/SPXEW two zig-zags higher with tops at month 15/14 right on schedule for 18m high, next is decline into 18m low.

DAX - two zig-zags with the same size and tops right on schedule for the 18m high.

DJ the same.

NYSE monthly view of the same

SPX equally weighted

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators turned lower the trend following still pointing higher with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with multiple divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower below 75 .
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - maybe some kind of bottoming - first 20d high followed by 5w low short after that....

The cycles 10w/20w/40w/18m deviate from the usual length... caused by the AI bubble. It is better to look at other indices - I think we have 18m high late March and we have topping process several months next is turn lower into 40w low and later continuation into 18m low.
P.S. synchronized view with the other indices.

Weekly preview

Literally days away as expected, tech sector turning lower and now the other indices are completing their patterns - double zig-zags at different degrees. The move from the october 2022 low is done. It has extended from simple zig-zag to double zig-zag which does not change its corrective nature and it will be fully retraced.




TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - important top 18m high, which could be the price high for the 4y cycle.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - w-x-y or a wedge completed.

Intermediate term - two Fibo levels of different degrees reached - very high probability the double zig-zag from October.2022 is completed. Topping similar to 2021, the other indices like NYSE/DJ/SPXEW are not following - sideways corrective move in the last three months.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - neutral... but very weak for ATH.
McClellan Oscillator - well above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned higher.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned higher.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - some kind of bottoming.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high and next week 20d low. This should be a high of 20d up to 18m cycle high.

At 18m high, the cycles 10w/20w/40w deviate from the usual length... if the indices continue with this rhytm we should see 18m low short before the US elections.
Since 2009 every surge higher lasted 21-25 months and this is month 22 - according cycles and the pattern it is done.

Weekly preview

On the hourly chart we have two legs with roughly the same size and the second one mirror image of the first one - it smells like another double zig-zag. Exactly the same can be seen from the October.2022 low on the daily/weekly chart.
After almost two years expect trend change... literally days away.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - important top 18m high, which could be the price high for the 4y cycle.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - now we have second leg mirror image of the previous one with roughly the same size.

Intermediate term - double zig-zag and topping similar to 2021 with RSI/MACD divergences on all time frames daily/weekly/monthly. Other indices like NYSE/DJ/SPXEW are not following - sideways corrective move in June.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no, change, weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - some kind of bottoming.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d high to complete 10w/20w high.

At 18m high, the cycles 10w/20w/40w deviate from the usual length... if the indices continue with this rhytm we should see 18m low short before the US elections.
Pretty consistent cycle highs every 12+-1 weeks... now at week 14 from the previous high. Maybe shorter 20w cycles or 40w cycle dividing in three not two.