Weekly preview

We have completed pattern at Fibo level for example NDX or SPX and turn lower in the early stages.
Cycles are bearish - at important high. Market breadth is bearish - very weak with divergences for a long time.

I would say expect decline into 40w low sometimes in November.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - It looks like a-b so far.

Intermediate term - Next should be decline to MA200 and support.

Long term - touching the trend line one more time with divergence.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - very weak with divergences for a long time.
McClellan Oscillator - reseting higher.
McClellan Summation Index - pointing lower with divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - pointing lower with divergence.
Bullish Percentage - divergences.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this should be 20d/5w/10w/20w high. The path is lower shown on the chart.

Long term cycles - week 32 from the last high from February, time for another important high and decline into 40w low.

Update and long term view

Time to look at the big picture because the indices reached the end of the road from 2009.
First short term - I see the usual double zig-zag, both Fibo measurement for c and Y point to the same area 6630-6640. Or you can count impulse if you want.
Both corrections are running one - flat and triangle so the sheeple do not see a correction and the stupid comments are getting more as usuall at the top.

Short term cycles - one more 20d cycle for 40w cycle high.

Long term - I have looked at the long term cycle charts and do not think there will be pullback b-wave and another high. Based on pattern and the cycle high below this looks like the high - I do not buy the ED count with another b-c wave... ooo I have forgotten - it did not decline for the last 1/2/3 years so it is all wrong.

The 7y cycle highs - reached 4y cycle high which is roughly 3.5 years long.

The 7y cycle lows - looks like sequence of long-long short-short 3.5 year cycles and we have the bounce from the second short cycle in the sequence.

The 9y cycle lows - the current 9y cycle has no visible candidate for the 4y cycle low(see below) - the best candidate is the sharp decline from this year.

The pattern from 7y cycle perspective starting from 2009 - I see two impulses for a-b-c.
NDX as an example - from 2020 I see impulse which is weaking and taking the shape of a wedge, but I do not think this is ED.
Cycles - I see two 18m cycle lows between the start of the impulse and the low of wave 2 and two more between the lows of wave 2 and 4. I see one 18m cycle high between the highs for wave 3 and 5 and two 18m highs between wave 1 and 3.
Fibo just a coincidence I guess - in non-logarithmic scale c=2.618xa, in logarithmic scale c=0.618xa

The pattern from 9y cycle perspective starting from 2011 - I see two zig-zags for w-x-y.
DJ as an example - from 2020 I see two impulses for a zig-zag, I do not think this is ED.
Cycles - the first 9y cycle divides perfectly in two, the current one visually looks like sequence of three 18m pairs instead of two 4y cycles.
Fibo just a coincidence I guess - in non-logarithmic scale Y=1.618xW, in logarithmic scale Y=0.618xW

Quick update

The two possible patterns - the outcome will be the same. Another interesting point is the cycle highs like echo - two highs December-February two months apart and 7 months later the same. Short said the market will turn lower into 40w cycle low November/December.